Know Your Opponent: Wake Forest

By Bobby Hundley

Wake Forest (WakeForestSports.com)
Location: Winston-Salem, N.C.
Rankings: WFU - No. 70 KenPom, NR AP; UNC - No. 8 KenPom, No. 11 AP
Records: WFU - 7-5, 0-0 ACC; UNC - 11-2, 0-0 ACC
Carolina Series History (Last Meeting): UNC leads 159-66 (UNC 93, WFU 87, Jan. 11, 2017, Joel Coliseum)

After two years in purgatory following the end of the Jeff Bzdelik era in Winston-Salem, Wake Forest returned to relevance in 2017, riding one of the nation's top offenses back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2010. That surge proved to be a double-edged sword, however, as underclassmen John Collins and Dinos Mitoglou left early to pursue professional opportunities in the NBA (Collins was the No. 19 pick in the June draft) and in Greece (Mitoglou returned to his home country to play for Panathinaikos).

Despite those early departures (and the expired eligibility of Austin Arians), the Demon Deacon offense is still humming along nicely as we approach 2018. During a recent 6-game winning streak, Wake averaged better than 1.20 points per possession, including a 1.43 PPP effort against Army West Point. The 79-60 loss to Tennessee last Saturday marked just the second time all year that the Deacs failed to reach 1.00 PPP.

So how has Wake Forest kept it up on the offensive end? Start with three returners in Mitchell Wilbekin, Keyshawn Woods and Brandon Childress who are all making at least 40 percent of their 3s. Add a classic scoring point guard in Bryant Crawford, the team's leader in both 3FG attempts and free throw attempts who has missed just six of 65 foul shots this year. And top it off with 7-1 junior Doral Moore, the nation's leader in 2FG% at 81.8 percent whose 54 made field goals include a ridiculous 34 dunks.

While there are some underlying concerns on offense - Crawford's 3FG% has dipped under 31 percent and the team ranks outside the top 200 nationally in turnover rate, to name two - it's the defense that has limited Wake's potential. A KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency ranking 187th nationally is the headline, and two categories paint a clearer picture of the issues plaguing the Deacs.

First is 3-point defense. Wake opponents are attempting nearly 44 percent of their shots from deep and making almost 40 percent of them. So not only are teams making a ton of 3s, Deacon defenders are not running shooters off the line either. Second is defensive rebounding. While Moore and grad transfer Terrence Thompson have led a very solid unit on the offensive glass, opponents have been feasting on second chances as well.

On the eve of ACC play, Wake sits at No. 162 in the NCAA's official RPI, meaning that Danny Manning's team needs wins and lots of them to get into the postseason discussion. Losses to Tennessee and Houston are the Deacs' only games in the top two quadrants so far, but opportunities will be plentiful in league play. That starts Saturday at RPI No. 4 Carolina.

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