Know Your Opponent: Florida State

By Bobby Hundley

Florida State (Seminoles.com)
Location: Tallahassee, Fla.
Rankings: FSU - No. 25 KenPom, No. 24 AP; UNC - No. 11 KenPom, No. 12 AP
Records: FSU - 11-2, 0-1 ACC; UNC - 12-2, 1-0 ACC
Carolina Series History (Last Meeting): UNC leads 49-12 (UNC 96, FSU 83, Jan. 14, 2017, Smith Center)

It'll be something old and something new when Carolina opens ACC road play Wednesday at Florida State. What's old? The familiar staples of Leonard Hamilton's program - balanced offense and defense, length at every position and high-end tempo. What's new? Four of the starting five, including role player turned leading man Phil Cofer.

The non-conference slate was a mixed bag for the Seminoles. They hammered Florida in Gainesville and beat an improved Rutgers in Jersey, but lost a pre-Christmas game to Oklahoma State in which they were held to a season-low 0.91 points per possession. And a non-league strength of schedule outside the top 200 means FSU will have to make most of its postseason hay in the ACC.

Of course the 'Noles nearly picked up the biggest win possible to start league play, fading late at RPI No. 1 Duke last Saturday in a 100-93 loss that was one of the most compelling games in the country to date. Cofer was the breakout star in that one, and his 6-of-10 performance from deep illustrates the player he has become as a senior. In 76 career games prior to this season, Cofer had only made 12 3s. Through 13 games this year, he's 19 of 37 for a team-best 51.4 percent from the outside. And at 6-8, he's a matchup problem for pretty much every team in college basketball.

Cofer is one of three upperclassmen playing big minutes for FSU heading into 2018. The familiar name is Terance Mann, a 6-6 wing who is the lone returning starter from last year's 26-9 squad. Mann played fourth fiddle to current pros Dwayne Bacon, Jonathan Isaac and Xavier Rathan-Mayes a season ago, but he's emerged as the team's leading scorer on top of being its best perimeter defender.

As ESPN's John Gasaway pointed out in December, this could prove to be Hamilton's best-shooting team in 16 years at FSU. And the numbers bear it out - the 'Noles' current effective FG% of 57.0 would comfortably surpass the 2007 team as the best of the Hamilton era. While the emergence of Cofer has plenty to do with that, senior Braian Angola (42.3%) and freshman M.J. Walker (45.5%) are the team's top volume shooters. If junior P.J. Savoy can return to his 2017 form and sophomore point guard C.J. Walker can continue his upward progression, FSU could have a truly elite shooting team on its hands.

Inside, freshman 7-footer (you didn't really expect FSU not to have a 7-footer or two, did you?) Ike Obiagu is the likely starter and a capable shot-blocker and rebounder. He's not a big factor offensively (shooting 29 percent from the line will do that), so expect fellow newcomer Mfiondu Kabengele, who averages nearly 10 points per contest, to see decent minutes as well.

It seems like a waste of time to outline a team's upcoming stretch of difficult games in the ACC this year, but do spare a thought for the Seminoles, who will head right back out on the road at 12-1 Miami on Sunday to close this particularly brutal start to league play. Welcome to January, everyone!

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