Know Your Opponent: Duke

By Bobby Hundley

Duke (GoDuke.com)
Location: Durham, N.C.
Rankings: DU - No. 5 KenPom, No. 9 AP; UNC - No. 12 KenPom, No. 21 AP
Records: DU - 19-4, 7-3 ACC; UNC - 17-7, 6-5 ACC
Carolina Series History (Last Meeting): UNC leads 135-110 (Duke 93, UNC 83, March 10, 2017, Barclays Center)

After entering ACC play at 11-0 and No. 1 in the AP poll, Duke has had an up-and-down two months. Starting with an 89-84 loss at Boston College on Dec. 9, and capped by Saturday's 81-77 loss at St. John's, the Blue Devils have lacked consistency, especially on the defensive end.

Duke dropped to 1-2 in the league after falling at NC State on Jan. 6 before running off five straight wins. In a quirk of the schedule, four of those came against Pitt and Wake Forest, victories which were sandwiched around perhaps their best league win to date, an 83-75 comeback at Miami.

Five players are essentially getting all of the important minutes in ACC play. With the exception of Alex O'Connell logging 20 minutes in the second Wake win, no Blue Devil non-starter has hit that mark since the calendar turned to 2018.

Marvin Bagley III leads a talented quartet of freshmen starters for Mike Krzyzewski's club. The 6-11 superstar has met, if not exceeded, expectations and would be the runaway pick for national freshman of the year if not for Trae Young. Bagley excels at the three things you'd want an offensive-minded big man to excel at - making 2s, rebounding his teammates' misses and getting to the foul line. Both Bagley and 6-10 classmate Wendell Carter Jr. rank in the top 50 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, a big part of why Duke is comfortably the top OR% team in America and possibly the best ever under Krzyzewski.

In the backcourt, senior Grayson Allen is joined by point guard Trevon Duval and wing Gary Trent Jr. While Duval is certainly a capable scorer - all five Duke starters average in double figures - he has found his niche as a distributor (74th nationally in assist rate) and a perimeter defender (team-high 35 steals). Trent has been a lethal shooter all season, but he's been especially dangerous in ACC play. He's made almost half of his 3s against conference teams, a number that is even more impressive when you consider he's taking 7.5 per league outing.

Allen, however, has slumped from deep, making a career-worst 26 percent on 3s in ACC games. Despite the shooting struggles, the senior is still a dogged defender who ranks sixth in the league in steal percentage. And he is, of course, capable of getting hot at any time, especially against Carolina. In his last four games against the Tar Heels, Allen has made 20 of 33 (61 percent) from deep.

With Virginia poised to cruise to the regular season title and the No. 1 seed in Brooklyn, Thursday starts a wild sprint to the finish and a battle royale for the other three ACC Tournament double-byes. Ten teams have between three and six losses, and each of Duke's remaining opponents is in that group. If the Blue Devils can take care of business in the stretch of three road games in four that starts Thursday in Chapel Hill, they will have an inside track straight to Thursday at Barclays.

Scoreboard Slider

University of North Carolina Athletics

Related Videos