Know Your Opponent: N.C. State

By Bobby Hundley

North Carolina State (GoPack.com)
Location: Raleigh, N.C.
Rankings: NCSU - No. 61 KenPom, NR AP; UNC - No. 12 KenPom, No. 21 AP
RPI/SOS: NCSU - 65/76; UNC - 10/3
Records: NCSU - 16-8, 6-5 ACC; UNC - 18-7, 7-5 ACC
Carolina Series History (Last Meeting): UNC leads 155-78 (NCSU 95, UNC 91 (OT), Jan. 27, 2017, Smith Center)

KYO: NC State - Jan. 27

NC State's two games since the win in Chapel Hill went in very different directions. First, a 76-58 pummeling of Notre Dame in which the Wolfpack limited the Irish to 0.85 points per possession, State's best defensive outing of the year in conference play. Then, an 85-75 loss at Virginia Tech in which the Hokies scored 1.16 PPP and made an incredible 71 percent of their 2s. Overall, the Pack is last in the league in 2-point defense, with ACC opponents making 57 percent of their shots inside the arc.

So where does that leave State as we enter the season's post-Super Bowl home stretch? The Wolfpack still has as strong a resume as anyone in the country in terms of signature wins - Clemson, Duke, at Carolina, Arizona in the Bahamas. They still have a non-conference SOS of 290 that features exactly two top-100 wins - Arizona and Penn State. And in this world of quadrants in which we now live, they have a big hole in Q2, where their only game is a 30-point loss at a Colson-less Notre Dame.

In terms of ACC seeding, the Pack is squarely in the mix for a double-bye along with half of the league. After Thursday's results, two games separate Duke and Miami in third (7-4) from Syracuse in 10th (5-6). In truth, only Virginia and (maybe) Clemson can feel good about not playing before Thursday, while only Wake and Pitt seem destined for Tuesday.

Allerik Freeman, the star of the first UNC-NCSU meeting, has returned to his prior struggles from deep in the last week. The grad transfer missed all four of his 3s against Notre Dame before going 1 for 8 at Virginia Tech. For the year, 17 percent of Freeman's made 3s came at the Smith Center. Needless to say, despite shooting 32 percent for the season, Freeman will be a big part of the scouting report for Saturday.

Markell Johnson's amazing assist streak is still alive, with the sophomore dishing out 10 dimes against both the Hokies and Irish, extending his double-digit run to five games. Johnson is up to fourth in the country in assist rate and, at 52.6 percent in ACC play, is the only player in the country above 50 percent in assist rate against conference opponents.

State has a favorable finish to the regular season, with two of its three remaining road games coming at Wake and Georgia Tech. Four wins over the final three weeks would get the Pack to 20 overall wins and 10 league wins, numbers that traditionally do the trick for NCAA selection, though the SOS could make for a nervous bracket party. A season sweep of Carolina, however, would likely calm any fears in Raleigh come March.

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University of North Carolina Athletics

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