Lucas: You Know This

By Adam Lucas

We'll never know, but you'll never convince me otherwise.

Virginia eventually won Monday night's game by eight points, so at least on paper Coby White's three-pointer with 3:29 remaining wouldn't have made a difference. But it felt otherwise.

White's desperation heave came just a split second after the shot clock expired. Instead of Carolina taking a 62-59 lead, the game remained tied at 59…at least until the Cavaliers went on a 10-2 run to finish the contest.

Maybe if it had counted, Carolina would have simply lost by five rather than by eight. But much like Danny Green's three-pointer against Kansas in 2008 that went in and then came out, inside the building, in the moment, it felt like more than just a simple three-point shot.

"You get so much momentum from a shot like that," Kenny Williams said. "It took some air out of the building."

White said he knew without watching the replay that the shot clock had already sounded. Most of the rest of us weren't quite as sure.

Instead of an incredible desperation heave that sparked the Tar Heels to victory with four National Players of the Year in attendance, we're left with just Virginia 69, Carolina 61. But here's the thing:

Games like this worry you if they reveal something about the Tar Heels that you didn't already know, some sort of heretofore unrecognized fatal flaw that will be an issue in March. That wasn't the case on Monday.

Here's what we learned: if Virginia (a 47.9 percent shooting team from the field for the year and 40.2 percent from the three-point line) shoots 53.3 percent from the field and 55.0 percent on 20 three-point shots, and Carolina (a 47.4 percent shooting team from the field for the year and 37.9 percent from the three-point line) shoots 35.4 percent from the field and 30 percent on 30 three-point shots, and Nassir Little plays two minutes, and Sterling Manley and Leaky Black aren't available, and Cameron Johnson sits on the bench for four key minutes late in the second half…then Virginia is better than the Tar Heels.

Think of it this way: if I'd told you Monday afternoon that Coby White was going to shoot 6-for-19, and Luke Maye would be 2-for-10, and Little would be virtually absent and Johnson would miss a key stretch, how would you have felt about Carolina's chances to win the game?

The Tar Heels are good. But they're not good enough to overcome that set of circumstances against one of the best teams in the country, a squad that had plenty to prove after Saturday's disappointing loss to Duke. Sure, Carolina still had a chance to win the game, and led by seven with less than eight minutes to go. There was a chance to get a significant, character-building win that would've been useful later in the year as a "no matter what goes wrong, Carolina can still win" touchstone.

That didn't happen. But remember: one of Carolina's best assets in 2019 is the incredible speed and pace generated by White. That advantage is completely eliminated against Virginia. The Tar Heels sped up Tony Bennett's squad for approximately 10 seconds on Monday, a midcourt doubleteam that turned into a Carolina steal and layup. That was it. That was the only time the Wahoos even remotely broke a sweat bringing the ball into the frontcourt.

Another of Carolina's best assets is diverse firepower from the perimeter. That advantage was virtually eliminated by shooting 9-for-30 from the three-point line. And another advantage is Little's athleticism and ability to create matchup problems. That advantage was rendered absent by an ankle injury.

So, let's see, if you take away three of the biggest advantages created by the Tar Heel personnel during the 2019 season, then Carolina isn't as good as Virginia. This team is not 2009. It's not a juggernaut. It's a very good team that has the potential, if everyone on the roster is available and playing to their potential—not imaginary, wishful potential, but actual potential they have showed on the court this season— to be one of the best teams in the country. If it doesn't play well, it's beatable.

Didn't we pretty much already know that? These are two good teams. If one shoots markedly better than their season average, and one shoots markedly worse, and one plays essentially without one of their most dynamic, matchup issue-causing players…then that team probably isn't going to win.

But I'd still like to have an extra half a second on that Coby White three-pointer.

Players Mentioned

Leaky Black

Cameron Johnson

Nassir Little

Sterling Manley

Luke Maye

Coby White

Kenny Williams

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