University of North Carolina Athletics
COUNTDOWN TO KICKOFF: Woody: Carolina Faces Top Ten Schedule
August 24, 2002 | Football
Aug. 24, 2002
By Woody Durham, Voice of the Tar Heels
Sports Illustrated's College Preview was the first to catch my attention. It rated the strength of schedule for the 117 teams in Division One-A. Then came the USA Today's Bonus College Section with Jeff Sagarin's rankings for the 240 entries in both Division One-A and One-AA. That's when I began to calculate my personal formula to determine the schedule strength for each of the ACC teams.
Again this year, SI went to the trouble of ranking each of the Division One-A teams from top rated Oklahoma to lowly Idaho. However, among the Top Ten teams only two--Florida State and Florida--play what would be considered difficult slates. obby Bowden's fifth-ranked Seminoles, who face the nation's top two teams in the Sagarin rankings, have the sixth toughest schedule, while number eight Florida has its schedule in the fifth spot.
Southern Cal has the country's toughest schedule, according to SI, followed by UCLA, Michigan, Texas Tech and then Florida. In addition to Florida State, there are two other ACC teams among the magazine's top ten schedule makers. Carolina is eighth, and Virginia--already 0-1 after losing 35-29 to Colorado State--is in the tenth spot.
ut how would the Noles, Heels and Hoos stack up using the Sagarin rankings?
This is how I figured it out with the lowest overall number representing the most difficult schedule. Each opponent was assigned a number which matched the ranking it had been given by the 1970 MIT math graduate. Among the ACC reps, Florida State (4) was the highest, followed by Georgia Tech (17), Clemson (29) and then Carolina (39). Then in order came Maryland (42), N.C. State (46), Virginia (51), Wake Forest (73) and Duke (126).
That's a total of 427 points. However, to calculate each schedule points for a particular school must be subtracted. Take 39 from 427, and Carolina starts with 388 points. Then add Texas (7), Syracuse (14), Arizona State (54) and Miami, Ohio (68). That's a total of 531 points which must be divided by 12 or the number of opponents the Tar Heels will playing during the regular season.
Four teams--Florida State, Maryland, N.C. State and Virginia--must have their schedules divided by 13.
Again, with the lowest number representing the toughest schedule, here how's my formula played out around the ACC...
Florida State -- 41.6
N. Carolina -- 44.3
Virginia -- 45.1
Clemson -- 53.2
Wake Forest -- 54.6
Duke -- 57.3
Georgia Tech -- 58.9
Maryland -- 66.2
N.C. State -- 69.5
There's a big gap between the Cavaliers and the Tigers, and still another between the Jackets and the Terps. It's hard to believe how diluted the schedules are at Maryland and N.C. State. The ACC is never going to be recognized as an improving football conference until all the teams start playing and competing with stronger non-conference opponents.
Sagarin will not add schedule strength to his rankings until the season is fully underway. But I do expect the numbers to be fairly accurate. After all, according to his team ratings, Colorado State should have been favored by five points against Virginia on Friday night in Charlottesville.
Sports Illustrated had the Rams one notch above the Cavaliers.
