University of North Carolina Athletics
Countdown to Kickoff: The Stats Story
August 25, 2005 | Football
Aug. 25, 2005
By Adam Lucas
The game is over, the head coaches have exchanged handshakes, and John Bunting is back in the locker room. At some point between that moment and the time he addresses the media, someone will hand him a copy of the final statistics.
His eyes will immediately go to the stat he feels provides the best gauge of how his team performed.
"Run defense, always," he says. "I even look at it at halftime. I look at yards per carry and I look at the total yards. First I see how we're doing with our run defense and then I look at how the other team is doing."
Other sports have seen a 21st century explosion of stat-heads preaching new and improved--and supposedly more telling--statistics. Baseball has seen the biggest changes, as batting average has been replaced by on-base percentage and WHIP has supplanted ERA. Even basketball is changing, as several recent books have sought to apply the same kind of analysis used in major league baseball--frequently known as the Moneyball approach for the book of the same name by Michael Lewis--to the hardwood.
But football's primary indicators remain blissfully simple: our big guys against your big guys. The winner of that battle usually wins the game.
"Football doesn't really lend itself to all that numerical analysis," quarterback Matt Baker says. "I'd like to think of some stat that no one talks about and is really unique, but there just aren't any like that."
There are some stats, however, that both players and coaches say are overemphasized by fans.
"Passing yards are overrated," Baker says. "You can throw for 130 or 140 yards and still have a great game if you complete 80 percent of your passes and complete passes on third down for first downs. Those might be short passes, but they're big ones. As long as the running game is going well and you're getting it done, 140 yards passing can be a big game even if people don't think that's a big number."
That might sound odd coming from a man who will be largely judged this year on how his passing numbers stack up to those posted by Darian Durant. But here's the thing: Baker is right.
Carolina had four 250-plus yard passing games last year. The Tar Heels won just one of them. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels had four 250-plus yard rushing efforts last year and won all four of them.
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Countdown to Kickoff: 16 Days
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It's not a recent phenomenon. Of the top 10 single-season passing seasons in Carolina history, only five ended with a bowl appearance. The school record for most average passing yards was set in 2002, when the Tar Heels posted 266.6 yards per game. Those gaudy numbers led to a record of 3-9.
Want more? Of the top 18 single-game passing yardage games in school history, Carolina has won 10 of them (55.5%). Of the top 18 single-game rushing yardage games in school history, the winning percentage soars to 83.3% (15 out of 18).
Run the ball, win the game. Stop the run, win the game. The numbers suggest it's more than just coachspeak. The further a team is behind in the score, the more passes they're likely to throw. Passing yards can add up in a hurry, but they don't always equal victories.
Baker's suggestion about the overvaluing of passing yards is extended even further by other Tar Heels.
"Total yards can be overrated," Bunting says. "It might be a game where you've played extremely well against the run, and you get out in front and the other team has to start throwing it. They get some yards passing, and at that point you have to start looking at the average per play rather than just the total yards."
Of course, the Tar Heels haven't been very good in preventing total yards in recent years, so they might be predisposed to ignore them. But the numbers suggest Bunting is correct.
Here's an example: Carolina's defense was widely credited with a decent performance against Virginia Tech last year, as the Hokies amassed just 370 yards. But it took them just 47 plays to reach that figure--largely because they were dominating the game on the ground and eating up clock--for a 7.8 yards per play average.
Conversely, the Tar Heels were skewered for their defensive performance in Tallahassee, when Florida State picked up 442 total yards. But the Carolina coaching staff felt the overall defensive effort in that game was reasonable, with a handful of big plays turning the tide. Yards per play suggests the Tar Heels actually played better defensively against the `Noles than against the Hokies--FSU averaged 6.5 yards per play, over a yard less than Virginia Tech.
Some players, however, aren't impressed by the statistics. To them, there's only one area on the stat sheet worth checking.
"I look at the score," Khalif Mitchell says. "When you put it all together, that's what is most important. You can destroy a team in stats and lose the game. Then the stats don't mean much, do they?"
Adam Lucas is the publisher of Tar Heel Monthly and can be reached at alucas@tarheelmonthly.com. He is the coauthor of the official book of the 2005 championship season, Led By Their Dreams, and his book on Roy Williams's first season at Carolina, Going Home Again, is now available in bookstores. To subscribe to Tar Heel Monthly or learn more about Going Home Again, click here.
