University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag
December 11, 2007 | Men's Basketball
Dec. 11, 2007
By Adam Lucas
A call for comments: in two weeks, the Mailbag will fall on Christmas Day. We'd like the column that week to focus exclusively on your favorite Tar Heel basketball holiday memories and/or your favorite Tar Heel basketball-related gift that you've received or given. Submit your comments now and we'll have a selection of the best responses on Dec. 25.
We periodically get questions about the UNC junior varsity team. You might not realize it, but there's a section on this site devoted to that squad. There's also a page devoted to the history of that team, which of course includes a former head coach named Roy Williams.
One thing the last month's road odyssey has reinforced is the nationwide nature of the Carolina fan base. Whether it's Columbus, Lexington, Las Vegas, or Philadelphia, the Tar Heels consistently draw a big blue-clad crowd. During the Carolina-Old Dominion game in Las Vegas, I was seated next to a member of BYU's traveling party. As he looked around the arena, which was overwhelmingly blue, he said, "Do you guys always travel like this?"
That notion was reinforced by this week's Mailbag, which contains questions from Georgia, Montana, Illinois and Ohio.
I know a successful "primary break" results in a quick basket, and the "secondary break" is a set play designed to take advantage of an unprepared defense. But when is the secondary break "over", and the Heels just settle into a half court set? Does it have a life span of just a few seconds until the opponent's defense is in place, or is it just a term for the remainder of the shot clock if the primary doesn't work?
Larry Armstrong
Marietta, GA
The secondary break is part of the core of the Carolina offense. You can look at the Tar Heel offense in three distinct parts: the first option, as Larry mentions, is always to beat the other team down the court and take advantage of a numerical mismatch by scoring on the primary break. Most teams usually only achieve that goal off missed baskets; when the Tar Heels are really clicking, they can also do it off of made baskets.
The second part is the secondary break. Carolina goes into that automatically when the primary break isn't available. It retains some of the characteristics of the primary break--trying to take advantage of mismatches and exploiting a defense that isn't set.
Remember how Dean Smith used to chafe under the suggestion that there was a particular "Carolina system"? People who don't understand the secondary break are likely to refer to it the same way. After all, they see that there are specific movements assigned to every player on the floor and assume a bunch of robots could do it. But what they don't see is that every movement plays off another movement; Williams can tell his players how to react to certain defenses, but he can't predict every time the way the defense will play a certain screen or cut. There's actually a good bit of freedom in the secondary break, but it requires a working knowledge of the offense.
A good diagram of the secondary break can be found here, although it's worth noting that it would actually be a post player like Deon Thompson or Tyler Hansbrough (not Marcus Ginyard) who would receive that first pass at the top of the key. Almost everyone understands Williams prefers point guards who can run. But not everyone appreciates the fact that to make the secondary break work, the Tar Heels also must have big men who are committed to the idea of running the full 94 feet. The faster they get down the court, the more likely they are to set up unobstructed near the basket, creating the chance for an easy basket or--at minimum--a foul.
The secondary break can continue for most of a possession. It's only when the shot clock approaches the 10-second mark--or a foul forces the ball to be inbounded at a different location--that the Tar Heels are likely to move into a set play. When they're playing very well offensively, they could score off the primary or secondary break more than 75 percent of the time.
The best development in Wednesday's tough road win was our ability to execute against the zone. The zone can trip up many teams, both early in the season and in March. The fact that we were successful against the zone so early in the year is a true indicator of the team's maturity. Bobby Frasor and Danny Green in particular were able to find open spots causing switches and allowing good looks at the basket. Frasor seems very comfortable running the show against the zone. Do you think Frasor will see more minutes against zoning defenses as teams try to slow Hansbrough?
Dave Morris
Missoula, Montana
Zone offense has always been a point of contention among Carolina fans. For most of the past 30 years, the Tar Heels have often had a talent advantage over their opponents. The most common way to overcome that advantage is to junk the man-to-man defense and sit back in a zone.
That was supposed to be the book on how to play Carolina this year, too. With an alleged lack of outside shooters, opponents wanted to congest the lane for Hansbrough and give up the occasional jump shot. But through eight games the Tar Heels have been unusually effective against the zone. Why? Three reasons:
1. Ty Lawson's dribble penetration. When Lawson was limited against BYU, the Cougars used zone with more success than any other Carolina opponent this season. The 2-3 is best known as a defense that will give up open jumpers if the ball is quickly moved around the perimeter. But it's also ripe for penetration if a team has a quick point guard who can slice between defenders. That's Lawson at his best.
2. The evolution of Carolina's outside game, including Wayne Ellington moving from a standstill jump shooter to a scorer. Last year, he was content to catch-and-shoot. This year, he's just as likely to catch, head fake, take a couple dribbles, and shoot. Every time the offense forces the defense to react it's opening a hole for a better shot, and Ellington seems to understand that as a sophomore. Just 36.9% of his field goal attempts are three-pointers this season; compare that to his 46 percent mark as a freshman. Danny Green also belongs in this category. He's shooting 40 percent from the three-point line, a significant improvement over his career 32.5 mark from that area. The improvement is partly because he's taking smarter shots--approximately 40 percent of his field goal attempts are trifectas this season, as opposed to 46 percent in his previous two seasons. Green can also be a matchup headache against the zone because he's usually on the floor with at least two other outside shooters.
3. The occasional use of a post-to-post high-low. With increasing frequency this season, the Tar Heels have stationed one of their three biggest players (Hansbrough, Deon Thompson, or Alex Stepheson) at the free throw line against a zone. "The high-low opens up a lot for our offense," Ellington says. "Tyler gets so much attention, and they will collapse on him wherever he is. If he catches the ball at the free throw line and guys go to him, our other post guys have a one-on-one chance."
I was wondering how players have historically done in homecoming games. Wayne didn't have a particularly good performance in his homecoming (below averages) and I recall Tyler last year didn't perform up to his season averages in his homecoming either. When I start thinking back I remember Sean May had a difficult night in his homecoming against Indiana as well. Is this a larger trend, or am I only remembering those that struggled.
Chris Doan
Cincinnati, OH
Since Roy Williams returned to Carolina, the Tar Heels have played six "home" games:
Jawad Williams at Cleveland State (24 points and 11 rebounds, plus a critical three-pointer late in the game)
Raymond Felton at Myrtle Beach against UNC-Wilmington (13 points and 6 assists)
Quentin Thomas at Santa Clara (not really fair to count this, as he was an overwhelmed freshman, but he had 2 points, 3 assists, and 3 turnovers)
Sean May at Indiana (8 points and 4 rebounds, but he also had a big three-point play in the second half)
Tyler Hansbrough at Saint Louis (15 points and 13 rebounds but just 6-of-13 from the field)
Wayne Ellington at Penn (13 points, 5-of-14 shooting)
You could also count games at Madison Square Garden as home games for Danny Green, but it's hard to pin down just one of those. For that matter, you could also count this weekend's game at Rutgers, which is less than 80 miles from Green's hometown of North Babylon.
Excluding Green and looking at the above six games, only Jawad Williams could truly count his home game as an exceptional performance. The toughest game was probably May's; not coincidentally, that's also the only "home" game where the crowd wasn't in love with the returning Tar Heel. Ellington got a huge hand at the Palestra, Felton was a hero in Myrtle Beach, and most of the town of Poplar Bluff was there for Hansbrough. But Hoosier fans were still bitter about May's decision to spurn Indiana, and the venom Carolina overcame in that game was a statement about that team's toughness.
Out-of-state players agree it's tough to perform perfectly in front of a crowd of family and friends. Ellington admitted he was "a little anxious" in last week's first half, which led to some uncharacteristic bad shots. Hansbrough, just a year removed from Carolina's trip to Saint Louis, agreed. "When we went to Saint Louis, it was one of those things where everyone from my hometown was there," he said. "I kept thinking, `What if I mess up?'"
The Tar Heels will play two home games next season. Bobby Frasor will go back to Illinois when Carolina travels to the United Center to play Valparaiso, and Alex Stepheson and Deon Thompson will play less than two hours from home when Carolina plays UC-Santa Barbara in November.
Brownlow's Down Low
I noticed at least in some of the last few games, that the Heels' opponent took zero foul shots in the first half. I'm used to the Heels making more shots than the other team took, but the other team having no foul shots at all? That's crazy. Is it a new strategy of some sort with the Tar Heels to pay close attention to not fouling? And of course for Lauren, is there a correlation between so few fouls and wins or something? I know you can find some stat discussion in there somewhere.
Rick Walter
Naperville, IL
Lauren writes:
This season so far, Carolina has been whistled for 137 fouls (17.1 per game) while opponents have committed 188 fouls (23.5). The free-throw margin is where the disparity is - 29.9 per game for Carolina and 15.9 per game for its opponents. Part of the reason is Carolina's opponents are attempting 35.1% of their shots from the three-point line, whereas the Tar Heels are attempting just 23.9% of their shots from beyond the arc. Carolina's opponents are scoring 31% of their points from the three-point line. Roy Williams would be pleased to see that 76.1% of Carolina's field-goal attempts are from two-point range, which is another reason for the free-throw disparity.Another bad trend is that too many fouls are being committed on the perimeter. Deon Thompson leads the team in fouls with 21 (2.6 per game). But Ty Lawson ranks second with 19 in just seven games (2.7 per game). Excluding Danny Green (who sometimes plays the four), Carolina's backcourt has committed 46.7% of Carolina's fouls. With Green, it's 58.3%.
But as for the broader question about fouls, it's hard to answer that based on the numbers, or even the foul averages, alone. The way games are refereed tends to change from year to year, and the average number of fouls reflects that. In the 1970's, Carolina averaged 20.0 foul per game while opponents came in at 22.2 for the decade. But in the 1980's, Carolina's foul went down to 17.3 and its opponents' to 20.1.
So the best way to look at it is through the foul margin between Carolina and its opponents. The higher that margin is in favor of Carolina's opponents, the better it should be for the Tar Heels. The biggest margin in Carolina history was in 1994, when Carolina committed 16.5 fouls per game to 22.6 fouls by opponents (+6.1).
All four of Carolina's national championship teams are inside the top 11 in foul margin. Carolina's two most recent national champions (2005 and 1993) coerced opponents into 3.9 more fouls per game. The 1957 team actually ranks fifth overall with a +5.5 margin (18.3 fouls for Carolina, 23.8 for its opponents). That's likely due in large part to Lennie Rosenbluth's propensity to get to the line. In fact, there is only one other team from the 1950's or 1960's in the top 20 - the 1968 Final Four squad at No. 14 that averaged a +3.6 difference (17.8 fouls committed by Carolina, 21.4 fouls by opponents).
Since 1990, Carolina has gone to seven Final Fours. Of those teams, five rank in the top 12 in foul differential. That the 2000 team rank 32nd is not surprising - after all, Carolina did have a 22-14 record that season. But what is somewhat surprising is that the 1997 team, with the great Antawn Jamison, ranks 25th at +2.8 (15.6 fouls by Carolina, 18.4 by the opponent). The lowest-ranked Carolina team that went to a Final Four is the 1972 team which averaged 20.7 fouls to 22.4 by its opponents (+1.7).
Only three teams in Carolina history have either averaged the same or more fouls than their opponents. Surprisingly, the 1960 squad is the team with the worst differential (-3.8, 23.4 fouls committed to 19.6 fouls by opponents) despite having a pretty good record at 18-6. The 23.4 fouls per game is the highest average in Carolina history. But the 1954 Tar Heels went 11-10 and had a -1.2 margin, 22.7 fouls by Carolina to 21.5 by opponents.
Since 1980, the team to average the fewest fouls per game is the 1982 team and it also has the best record since 1980. No Carolina team since 1980 has averaged more than 20 fouls per game (which also shows you how officiating has changed) and the 1987 team at 19.4 per game is the highest in that span, and it had a 32-4 record. The 1994 team, with the highest foul differential in Carolina history, went a disappointing 28-7 and had an early exit from the NCAA Tournament. But since 1994, five seasons have seen Carolina's opponent's average over 20 fouls per game and leading the way is the 2005 team, whose opponents averaged 21.8 per game. All four of Roy Williams' teams at Carolina have forced opponents into 20 or more fouls per game. So that is not only a part of the Roy Williams strategy, it does seem to be a part of playing successful basketball.
Adam Lucas most recently collaborated on a behind-the-scenes look at Carolina Basketball with Wes Miller. The Road To Blue Heaven is available now. Lucas's other books on Carolina basketball include The Best Game Ever, which chronicles the 1957 national championship season, Going Home Again, which focuses on Roy Williams's return to Carolina, and Led By Their Dreams, a collaboration with Steve Kirschner and Matt Bowers on the 2005 championship team.
