University of North Carolina Athletics
Duke Game Guide
November 25, 2010 | Football
Nov. 25, 2010
By Lauren Brownlow
The Basics
North Carolina (6-5, 3-4) will close out the season against Duke (3-8, 1-6) on Saturday. Carolina is coming off of a 29-25 loss to NC State in its final home game; Duke lost 30-20 at Georgia Tech last week. Carolina holds a 57-35-4 edge heading into the 97th meeting between the two teams and is 39-17-1 in ACC games only. Carolina has won 19 of the last 20 contests but each of the last five meetings has been decided by 13 points or less and four by eight or less.
Game Time: North Carolina at Duke, 3:30 PM, ESPNU
Carolina's game notes can be found here and Duke's official football site is here.
Last Time: Carolina beat Duke 19-6 on November 7, 2009. The Tar Heel defense held Duke to 11 first downs and 125 total yards. Carolina led just 9-6 at the end of the third quarter but with 6:57 left in the game, Jhay Boyd capped off a 12-play, 65-yard touchdown drive with a three-yard run to give Carolina a 16-6 lead. Carolina added a field goal on its next possession and Deunta Williams got an interception with 2:26 to go to essentially seal it. Ryan Houston had 164 yards rushing on 37 carries while T.J. Yates added 119 yards passing, completing 16-of-28. Zack Pianalto had five catches for 42 yards. Robert Quinn had 4.5 tackles for loss, 3.0 sacks and six quarterback pressures to go with a forced fumble. Duke's Thaddeus Lewis had 113 yards passing, no touchdowns and one interception. Austin Kelly had four catches for 22 yards.
Gameday Weather: Check the local weather forecast before heading to the game.
Radio Coverage: Tar Heel Sports Network coverage begins at 2:30. The radio broadcast is also available on XM Channel 191 at 3:30. Since it's an away game, the Duke's broadcasters will be heard instead of the Tar Heel Sports Network crew.
TV Coverage: The game will be shown nationally on ESPNU.
Game week TV/radio coverage: "Butch Davis Live", Coach Davis' weekly radio show, will be broadcast live from the Top of the Hill restaurant on Franklin Street every Wednesday at 7:00. Inside the Huddle with Butch Davis airs Saturday morning at 9 a.m. on FOX Sports South. Inside the Huddle with Butch Davis will air on Sunday at 11 a.m. on WTVD ABC 11 in the Triangle and will review Saturday's game. The Tar Heel Football Review show featuring highlights of the previous week's games will air Tuesday's at 7 p.m. and Thursday's at 8 p.m. in the Triangle and Fayetteville on the local Time Warner Cable station.
Storylines
Battle of the second half: Carolina famously had a second-half comeback against LSU in the season-opener this year that very nearly was enough to win the game. It started a trend this season where Carolina has been very good in the second half. In six wins, Carolina has outscored opponents 92-26 in the second half but in five losses, Carolina has been outscored 69-33. Carolina has allowed three or fewer second-half points in five games this year and only one resulted in a Carolina loss (LSU). Carolina has had under 100 yards in five third quarters this season and is 1-4 in those games. In the fourth quarter, Carolina had typically been over 100 yards or right around it but in four of its five losses, Carolina has been under 80 yards in the fourth. Scoring-wise, the fourth has been even more lopsided, outscoring opponents 71-38. NC State's 12 points in the fourth were the most Carolina has allowed all year. Carolina had been outscoring its opponents in the second half 113-59, or an average of +6 per second half and allowing 6.5 on average while scoring 12.6. But in the last two games, the Tar Heels have allowed 36 (18.0) and scored 12 (6.0). Duke has put up some very admirable efforts this season that have sometimes fallen jut short in the second stanza. In Duke's last seven games, all but one of which have been decided by ten or fewer, it has allowed nine first-half touchdowns and three field goals to 20 second-half touchdowns and two field goals. Duke has also managed ten second-half touchdowns with four field goals compared to seven touchdowns and ten first-half field goals. It is the defense, slowly getting better, that just hasn't managed to keep the opponent out of the end zone down the stretch. Carolina has struggled to get there at all, however, and that Duke defense might find an extra burst of energy against their archrival late in the game.
Third down: Carolina has overcome a lot to excel in quite a few areas this season but one area it has struggled - particularly lately - is on third down, on both sides of the ball. Carolina has not converted more than 50% of third downs against an FBS opponent since Virginia and has only done it three times all season. In the last three games combined, Carolina has converted just 13-of-42 (31%) third downs compared to 42-of-108 (38.9%) in the eight games before that. Carolina's defense held NC State to just 30.8% (4-of-13), the lowest conversion rate it had held an opponent to since Virginia (4-of-14) and second-lowest of the season allowed. But the defense has allowed some back-breaking third down conversions, including a 3rd and 19 by Virginia Tech two weeks ago. Carolina's opponents are converting 43.2% of their third downs in the first half and 37.3% in the second half, and the defense has normally adjusted well. But in losses, Carolina's opponents convert 42.9% of their second-half third downs compared to 32.5% in wins. On the flip side, Duke's defense - which is near the bottom of the league in both pass and rush defense - has done well on third down, allowing opponents to convert just 39 percent. But the Blue Devils have done that in the last four games, allowing just 22-of-54 conversions (40.5%). In the first half of those games, Duke has allowed just 10-of-30 conversions (33.3%) but it has struggled in the second stanza, allowing 12-of-24 (50%). Duke's offense has been fairly steady in both halves, converting 42.4% in the first and 46.4% in the second. Carolina has converted well on fourth down, converting 12-of-15 in the last seven games. But it doesn't want to have to put itself in that position.
At The Game
Tickets: Tickets are available for purchase here.
How to get to the game: For directions to the stadium, click here.
Watching At Home
Turn down the sound: If you're watching at home while listening to the radio or over the computer via Carolina All-Access, there will inevitably be some delay. For the reason - and a possible solution - click here.
A full list of THSN affiliates can be found here.
ESPNU coverage: The game will be shown on ESPNU. Pam Ward and Danny Kannell will have the call.
Names To Know
Anthony Elzy: Despite losing Johnny White, Carolina has been able to maintain success on the ground either through short passes or running it with the senior fullback/tailback, Anthony Elzy. He has 29 carries for 114 yards (3.9 per carry) since becoming Carolina's primary ball-carrier. And like White, he has caught the ball very well out of the backfield. He has been targeted 18 times in the last two games by T.J. Yates and has caught 16 of them for 280 yards and ten first downs. The rest of the team combined in that span has caught 35 for 328 yards and 14 first downs. He has managed to keep drives alive through big plays and he has given Carolina some semblance of a running game, despite managing just 32 yards on 12 carries against NC State. Even in years when Carolina is struggling running the ball, it has managed some big games on the ground against Duke. And if Carolina is going to keep its defense rested against the dangerous Duke passing game, it will have to have similar success on Saturday.
Donte Paige-Moss: Robert Quinn once occupied the spot on the defensive line that Donte Paige-Moss now plays at (right defensive end) and Paige-Moss is beginning to assert his dominance in the same way. He is second on the team in both tackles for loss (10.5) and sacks (5.0) behind Quinton Coples. He's 13th in the ACC in tackles for loss and 11th in sacks. In the last four games, Coples has 4.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss. He is coming off of a career-high ten tackles (five solo), 4.0 for loss, two sacks and a quarterback hurry against NC State. Quinn had a huge game against Duke last year and the defensive line was a big reason Carolina's defense was able to slow Duke so much. Paige-Moss will have to be as good as he has recently.
Sean Renfree: Duke's talented sophomore quarterback has had his ups and downs in his first season as a starter, but he has done great considering the lack of a consistent running game to support the passing game. He is third in the league in passing with 262.6 yards per game, right behind T.J. Yates, and seven in efficiency. Duke has won two of its last four games and in that stretch, Renfree has no interceptions to three touchdowns. In Duke's first seven games, he had ten touchdowns to 15 interceptions. He has also completed 73.8% of his passes in that stretch while averaging 288 yards per game; in the first even games, he completed 54.7% of his passes and averaged 248.1 yards per game. At Georgia Tech last week, he had 334 yards passing, one touchdown and no interceptions. Renfree can move the ball and Carolina will have to be wary of the deceptively mobile (when necessary) sophomore quarterback and his various weapons at wide receiver.
Patrick Egboh: The senior defensive end took some time to get going this season, but he has really asserted himself in recent games; five of his 6.5 tackles for loss have come in the last four games, as have all 4.5 of his sacks. He has nearly half of Duke's 11 sacks on the season and is 16th in the ACC in that category. He had two sacks last week at Georgia Tech. He is a fifth-year senior and his program has gotten significantly better during his time at Duke. He will be wanting to leave the program in his final game if not without bowl eligibility then with a victory over Carolina. He has at least 0.5 tackles for loss against Carolina in all three previous games (2.5 total); last season in Chapel Hill, he had five tackles (three solo), 0.5 for loss and a quarterback hurry. Carolina's offensive line certainly shouldn't be overconfident about facing a Duke defense last in the ACC in sacks considering how much it has struggled the last few weeks.
Lauren Brownlow is the executive editor of Tar Heel Monthly.
Follow the THM staff on Twitter.
