University of North Carolina Athletics
Florida State Game Guide
November 4, 2010 | Football
Nov. 4, 2010
By Lauren Brownlow
The Basics
Carolina (5-3, 2-2) will travel to Florida for the second time in three weeks to face No. 24 Florida State (6-2, 4-1). It will be Carolina's first trip to Tallahassee since 2004. Carolina is coming off of a 21-17 win over William and Mary while Florida State's last game was a loss last Thursday at No. 23 NC State. This game begins a streak during which Carolina will face three straight top-25 opponents in FSU, Virginia Tech (No. 20) and NC State (23). FSU leads the all-time series 15-1-1, 7-0-1 in Tallahassee. Carolina earned a tie there in 1986 and its only win in the series was at home in 2001.
Game Time: North Carolina at Florida State, 3:30 PM, ABC Carolina's game notes can be found here and Florida State's official football site is here.
Last Time: Carolina lost 30-27 to Florida State on October 22, 2010 in Kenan Stadium on Thursday night football. The Tar Heels were rolling early, taking a 24-6 lead with 11:38 to go in the third quarter. FSU struck back, scoring its first touchdown of the game with 6:12 to go in the third to cut it to 24-13. Carolina reached the Florida State 42-yard line before a T.J. Yates deep ball was intercepted at the Carolina two-yard line. On the very next play, FSU's Christian Ponder found Rod Owens for a 98-yard touchdown to cut it to 24-20 with 4:41 left in the third. A field goal by FSU cut it to 24-23 early in the fourth and Carolina responded with a field goal drive to go up 27-23 with 7:27 left, but it took just four plays on FSU's next drive to take a 30-27 lead. Carolina got the ball back with 47 seconds left but Yates was sacked on the last play of the game. Carolina outgained FSU rushing 238 to 43 but FSU won the battle through the air, 395 to 95. Yates completed 12-of-25 for 64 yards and a touchdown. Greg Little had six catches for 60 yards. Bruce Carter had nine tackles but E.J. Wilson had five tackles (two for loss), a sack and a forced fumble. Ponder completed 33-of-40 for 395 yards and three touchdowns. Rod Owens led FSU with nine catches for 199 yards and a score.
Gameday Weather: Check the local weather forecast before heading to the game.
Radio Coverage: Tar Heel Sports Network coverage begins at 2:30. The radio broadcast is also available on XM Channel 191/192 at 3:30.
TV Coverage: The game will be shown regionally on ABC.
Game week TV/radio coverage: "Butch Davis Live", Coach Davis' weekly radio show, will be broadcast live from the Top of the Hill restaurant on Franklin Street every Wednesday at 7:00. Inside the Huddle with Butch Davis airs Saturday morning at 9 a.m. on FOX Sports South. Inside the Huddle with Butch Davis will air on Sunday at 11 a.m. on WTVD ABC 11 in the Triangle and will review Saturday's game. The Tar Heel Football Review show featuring highlights of the previous week's games will air Tuesday's at 7 p.m. and Thursday's at 8 p.m. in the Triangle and Fayetteville on the local Time Warner Cable station.
Storylines
Moving the ball early and often: Carolina will have to minimize Florida State's possessions, and that would be the case no matter how many healthy defensive players Carolina would have had. That is now not only because of Florida State's powerful offense, but also its much-improved defense that looks a lot more like the frightening FSU units of old. The Seminoles lead the nation in sacks and rank sixth in tackles for loss. They are also 23rd in total defense, 15th in scoring defense, 23rd in rush defense and 16th in pass efficiency defense. The only area this unit has struggled in is forcing turnovers (94th in turnover margin), but their offense usually doesn't commit many and they are just stopping opponents. Their goal is to get teams into third and long - which they do quite a bit. Five ACC teams have faced third and six or more 57 times against FSU and converted just 15, turning it over three times and taking a sack six times. The first four teams FSU played converted just 16-of-61 third downs.
But the team that had the most success against FSU, both on the scoreboard and on third down, was NC State; the Wolfpack converted a ridiculous 12-of-18 third downs. They converted 7-of-9 in the second half and 2-of-2 fourth downs on those two missed third downs. What's perhaps most impressive is that State converted four third downs of two yards or less and all came via the run; FSU's other four ACC opponents combined to convert two from that distance. A big reason for State's success in the second half when they erased a 21-7 deficit is that it kept the ball for 20:07 to just 9:53 for FSU, running 55 plays to 28 for the Seminoles. NC State didn't panic and abandon the run; the Wolfpack ran it 31 times to 14 passes in the second half. State's 189 yards on the ground were tied for the most by an ACC opponent against FSU and the 53 rushes were by far the most attempted against them by an ACC team. After FSU held its first two ACC opponents to a combined 128 yards on the ground (64 per game), its last three league opponents have averaged 183 yards rushing and only Miami was blown out of those three. FSU held its first three ACC opponents (including Miami) to 3-of-6 in the red zone (two touchdowns); its last two opponents have scored on 7-of-8 trips (four touchdowns). And while its first three opponents turned it over or went three-and-out on 17 of 35 drives, its last two opponents have done that just 9-of-25 times.
After converting 12-of-12 red zone trips in its first three ACC games (seven touchdowns), Carolina has now converted 3-of-5 trips in its last two games (two touchdowns). Carolina has scored on 16 of 41 ACC drives and in wins, that number is 10-of-21 (seven touchdowns) to just 6-of-20 in two losses (four touchdowns). Ten of Carolina's 20 drives in ACC losses resulted in a turnover or a three-and-out; in wins, that number is six of 21. Carolina can't afford to miss on any chance against FSU. And Carolina should try to ride the wave of Johnny White and the running game. Carolina has rushed for 140 yards or more in three straight games but the real issue is establishing the run early. Carolina has not had more than 17 yards rushing in the first quarter in six straight games; that won't cut it at Florida State. The Seminoles aren't the type of team that Carolina can grind down until the fourth quarter, when they tire out. Carolina is averaging 92 yards rushing in the second half to 58 in the first. Prior to William and Mary, Carolina had also converted only 4-of-25 third downs in the second quarter and 4-of-19 in the third (18.2%) compared to 27-of-53 (51%) in the first and fourth. Waiting until the fourth quarter for the offense to kick into gear might have worked against William and Mary, but it certainly won't work against a high-powered FSU offense and defense.
Slowing a balanced FSU offense: Miami is perhaps the most similar team to Florida State that Carolina has faced so far in the sense that both have a good running game and an explosive passing attack. But FSU's running game is more dynamic; 15 of FSU's 24 big plays (25 yards or more) this year have come on the ground and five of those went for touchdowns (the shortest was 42 and the longest was 90). The improved rushing attack means that FSU is averaging 33.5 points, the most since 33.6 in 2001, and the 207.4-yard average on the ground is the most since 1995 when Warrick Dunn was in school. Oh, and FSU's tailbacks have yet to lose a fumble this year. And that's not to take anything away from senior quarterback Christian Ponder, who at one time was thought to be a Heisman candidate, and has managed the passing offense and distributed the ball to his plethora of talented wideouts efficiently. Obviously, facing ACC foes has slowed the FSU offense somewhat but still 14 of FSU's last 19 scoring plays have been ten or more yards. Of 59 drives FSU has mounted in five ACC games, the Seminoles have scored on 26 of them, punted just 19 times and 11 of those were three-and-out's. Carolina's opponents in ACC play have started 44 drives in four games and scored 17 times, punting 11 times (just five three-and-outs). NC State was able to erase a 21-7 deficit in the second half by holding FSU to just four possessions and 28 plays in the second half (9:53 time of possession); they forced one FSU fumble and recovered another, forced a three-and-out and allowed just three points. That's much easier said than done for Carolina to repeat, but something close to it is possible.
Florida State's experienced and powerful offensive line has paved the way on third down, allowing them to convert 50% on the season, 38-of-70 in ACC play and 20-of-40 in the last three against some tough defenses like Miami, BC and NC State. They have converted 14-of-16 3rd and short (1-2 yards) in ACC play; 13 of those came via the run. Carolina's defense has struggled on third down; William and Mary and four ACC opponents have converted 29-of-71 (40.1%) of their third downs. And the biggest problem is that 35 of those 71 tries are from distances of five yards or less; those opponents have converted 17 of those. But Carolina has a much better chance against third and six or more (as do most teams); opponents have converted just 12-of-36 (33.3%), still a bit too high for that distance. But after Clemson and Georgia Tech converted 5-of-9 of six or more yards, Carolina's last three opponents have converted just 7-of-25. That's not to say that Florida State will necessarily fail to convert; the Seminoles have converted 9-of-24 third downs of ten yards or more and 15-of-38 of six or more yards, nearly half.
All Carolina can try to do is keep FSU out of the end zone, which is difficult. Carolina has thrived this season defensively in the red zone, but the Seminoles have scored points on 35-of-39 red zone trips and 22-of-24 trips in ACC play. Since a missed field goal against their ACC opener against Wake, FSU had converted 18 red zone trips in a row before NC State recovered an fumble at the end of last Thursday's contest when it looked like FSU would score. And Carolina's four ACC opponents have scored on 12-of-16 red zone trips; only Virginia failed to score at all and they went 2-of-6. But Carolina had held teams mostly to field goals; in its first three league games teams scored on 7-of-11 trips but just three touchdowns. Miami scored on all five red zone trips (three touchdowns) and William and Mary scored on 3-of-4 trips (two touchdowns). Carolina will have to find that magic it found at Virginia in the red zone to keep this offense down.
At The Game
Tickets: Tickets are available for purchase here.
How to get to the game: For directions to the stadium, click here. For a parking map, click here. For a list of hotels in the area, click here.
What to do in Tallahassee: For some suggestions of what to do, click here. Check out this blog for a list of the best places to eat around the ACC, including Florida State.
Watching At Home
Turn down the sound: If you're watching at home while listening to the radio or over the computer via Carolina All-Access, there will inevitably be some delay. For the reason - and a possible solution - click here.
A full list of THSN affiliates can be found here.
ABC coverage: The game will be shown regionally on ABC. For a coverage map, click here. Mike Patrick and Craig James will have the call.
Names To Know
Johnny White: White has been carrying a few tacklers downfield per game, and he has carried Carolina's rushing attack as well, averaging 89.1 yards and 5.8 per rush. His 975 yards from scrimmage lead the ACC and he is the third-leading receiver (second counting active receivers) on the team with 21 catches for 262 yards. He had a career-high 164 yards on 29 carries last week against William and Mary. In three of Carolina's last six games, he has gained over a third of Carolina's total offense on his own. In the last two, he has 411 yards on 31 touches (13.3 per touch) and two touchdowns. The rest of the team combined has 411 yards on 79 plays (5.2 per play) and two touchdowns. Last year around this time, White slid right in to help out Ryan Houston after Draughn's injury, and Carolina was able to get some help in the rushing game by using wide receivers Jheranie Boyd or Greg Little sporadically. White returned to tailback for the first time against FSU in '09 and gained 40 yards on three carries. This year, it's been much more power than finesse; Carolina's improved offensive line has helped but it seems like White is literally willing his way to every yard he gains. And that determination could be the spark that at least keeps Carolina in this game until the end.
Carolina's linebackers: All three current starters have given Carolina solid play as the defensive line and secondary has fought through attrition. The linebackers have only had to deal with the loss of Quan Sturdivant; while that is significant, sophomore Kevin Reddick has stepped up his play in the middle and junior Zach Brown has fit in nicely in Sturdivant's place. Brown is the leading tackler on the team this year with 57; he also has two interceptions. Reddick is the second-leading tackler with 45, adding 3.5 for loss, two interceptions, four pass breakups and two quarterback hurries. Carter is fourth in tackles with 38 and got his first sack of the season last week; he also has an interception, a pass breakup and a blocked punt on the season. Last year against FSU, Carolina's four linebackers combined for 28 tackles (21 solo), 3.5 tackles for loss, a sack and a quarterback hurry. Brown had five solo tackles and Reddick had three, including a tackle for loss and Carolina's only quarterback hurry. But Sturdivant and Carter combined for 13 solo tackles, 2.5 for loss and a sack. It's not likely Sturdivant will be right back to 100 percent even if he plays (he has missed four games), but this is the type of game Carolina could really use a game-changing defensive play or two.
Christian Ponder: The senior quarterback is thought to be struggling this year; that might be because he's not putting up the kinds of numbers that he did last year as a junior. Of course, that's mostly a result of the running game finally getting going. And last year against Carolina, Ponder showed what he is capable of - he completed 33-of-40 passes for 395 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. He shone brightly last week against NC State, completing 17-of-28 passes for 196 yards, one touchdown and rushing for two more scores. He struggled late but nearly led the game-winning drive. He has thrown eight touchdowns and four picks in ACC play but three came in one game against BC; he still completed 19-of-31 passes for two scores. Ponder looks like he's starting to get back on track and show the kind of special player he can be, which is a scary prospect for Carolina.
Greg Reid: Despite being FSU's starting corner, Reid is second on the team in all-purpose yards with 74.4 per game, most on kickoff and punt returns. He is 21st nationally in the latter category, averaging 11.8 per return, and is fifth in the ACC in kickoff returns with a 22.6 average. But he is just as talented on defense; he is third on FSU in tackles with 40 (32 solo), adding two tackles for loss, two interceptions and seven pass breakups, fifth in the ACC. Last year against Carolina, Reid returned two punts for 17 yards (but one went for 20) and 22 yards on one kickoff return. His punt returns often set up FSU scores and that was the case last year; a 20-yarder set up an FSU field goal. Carolina has struggled at times against dynamic return men this year, but the recent special teams improvements will have to hold up.
Lauren Brownlow is the executive editor of Tar Heel Monthly.
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