University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: Weekend Scenarios
May 20, 2010 | Baseball, Featured Writers, Adam Lucas
May 20, 2010
By Adam Lucas
Beginning Thursday at 6 p.m., Mike Fox hopes four years of elimination lessons pay dividends in Chapel Hill.
Since 2006, the Tar Heels have faced must-win pressure at the highest levels. They had to beat Rice--probably the best team in the country--twice in order to stay alive in Omaha in 2007. The next year, they had to rebound from a disappointing 12-2 loss at Miami to cement a national seed. In 2009, the Tar Heels had to close out Boston College on the road after dropping the first game of a three-game series to seal the Coastal Division title.
The stakes are different this year, but the pressure is the same. Carolina enters tonight's three-game series against Virginia Tech (tickets are available) needing wins plus some help in order to advance to next weekend's ACC Tournament in Greensboro. Making the ACC's field could hold the key to earning a bid to the NCAA Tournament, which is the only way to extend the Omaha streak...well, hold on a second. Fox isn't ready to look that far ahead just yet.
"We know what is out there," he said. "But we have to show up to play (against Virginia Tech). We better play one pitch at a time. If we start trying to put formulas on the board and overthink things, we're in trouble."
Sometimes, it helps to have been in similar situations. Fox can populate his lineup with players like Mike Cavasinni (the last link to the '06 stunner in Tuscaloosa), Ryan Graepel (who tied a career-high with four hits on Tuesday against Charlotte and also made a potential game-saving defensive play in the ninth inning) and Matt Harvey (who has started three games in Omaha and will get the start on Thursday night). That means the head coach doesn't have to explain the importance of focusing on the immediate task instead of the potential consequences.
"It has to start with Thursday night," Fox said. "Virginia Tech is a great team that has played great on the road in the ACC this year."
Indeed, the Hokies already have road series wins over Florida State and Georgia Tech, plus one victory at Virginia. But since fans don't have to play in the games, and with apologies to Fox, it helps to know the various scenarios.
Three teams--Carolina, Boston College and NC State--are competing for the final two slots in the eight-team ACC Tournament. The league records shape up like this:
BC 13-14
NC State 12-15
Carolina 11-16
The possible combinations include:
Carolina and State in a two-way tie: Carolina advances by virtue of a series victory over the Wolfpack.
Carolina and Boston College in a two-way tie: The two teams didn't face each other this season, which could end up biting the Tar Heels. The next tiebreaker for non-division opponents is winning percentage against the top-seeded ACC team. Boston College has a win over Miami, plus a chance to earn another win against Georgia Tech this weekend. In a two-way tie, the Eagles would advance over Carolina.
Carolina, NC State and Boston College in a three-way tie: The lack of head-to-head competition between Carolina and Boston College hurts the Tar Heels again. That moves the tiebreaker to winning percentage against the league's top finishers. NC State's two wins over Virginia and Georgia Tech would be key here, handing them the seventh seed. That puts Carolina and Boston College back in a two-way tie, which the Tar Heels lose. NC State and Boston College advance over Carolina.
So how does Carolina make it to Greensboro? There are a couple combinations. Georgia Tech could sweep Boston College, combined with a Carolina sweep of Virginia Tech. That would render the results of the NC State-Duke series meaningless (as far as the Tar Heels are concerned).
But if the Eagles win one game against Tech, BC locks up a spot in Greensboro. The scenario involving NC State is slightly more complicated--the Tar Heels have to win one more game against Virginia Tech than State wins against Duke. If State sweeps the Blue Devils, they earn a trip to the postseason regardless of what happens in Chapel Hill.
Catch all three games of the Virginia Tech series on the Tar Heel Sports Network. Games will air on 99.9 FM, 1360 AM and 1150 AM in Burlington.
Adam Lucas is the publisher of Tar Heel Monthly. He is also the author or co-author of six books, including the upcoming book on the first 100 years of Carolina Basketball, A Century of Excellence. Get real-time UNC sports updates from the THM staff on Twitter.
