Bearcats a Formidable Opponent
December 24, 2013 | Football
NOTE: This article originally appeared in the December 17 issue of CAROLINA: The Magazine.
It wasn't quite Carolina's slow start of 1-5, but Cincinnati - the Tar Heels' Belk Bowl opponent - didn't get off to the start it would have wanted, going 3-2 to start the year, with a 45-17 loss at Illinois and a loss at South Florida under first-year head coach Tommy Tuberville.
The Bearcats went on to win six straight games, falling only in the regular-season finale to Louisville in overtime, on their way to a 9-3 record.
Cincinnati quarterback Munchie Legaux, who might be known to most of you for having one of the best names ever, suffered a devastating knee injury in week two at Illinois. Brendon Kay has stepped in, and the sixth-year senior has been relatively feast or famine since he did, passing for 482 yards in his first three games against FBS opponents (a little over 160 a game with three touchdowns and four interceptions. One was a portion of the Illinois game, to be fair, but Cincinnati was 0-2 in that stretch.
Then in the next three games - the first three of Cincy's win streak - he was 75-of-96 for 891 yards (297 per game) with seven touchdowns to just one interception. And in the last four games - three wins, one loss - he was 102-of-160 for 1,394 yards (348.5 per game) with eight touchdowns and six interceptions. He did have two touchdowns to four picks in the last two games (including no touchdowns against Louisville), but it's clear he's grown more and more comfortable each week getting the ball to the Bearcats' playmakers.
Cincinnati is good at almost everything - except penalties, turnover margin, red-zone offense and punting. (“Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln . . .”) But seriously, the Bearcats are in the top 50 or so in most other statistical categories - ninth in total defense, 20th in total offense, 68th in rushing offense, fifth in passing offense, fifth in rush defense and 33rd in pass defense. This is a well-rounded team.
But the Bearcats are 101st in turnovers lost (26) and 97th in turnover margin (-6), not to mention 103rd in fewest penalty yards per game and 112th in punt return defense. The only other area that sticks out where Cincinnati has struggled is in the red zone - the Bearcats' offense inside the 20 is 107th nationally.
And as far as penalties go, UNC is actually worse than Cincinnati in that department (11th most penalties per game and 112th in fewest penalty yards per game). And so the key matchup in this game will probably be how well the Tar Heels' defense can play against a good Cincinnati offense, and whether or not UNC's explosive punt return game with Ryan Switzer (Carolina is first nationally in punt returns) can make a big play against a Cincy special teams unit that is susceptible to it.
And back to the punt thing for just a moment - in Cincinnati's last six games, teams have returned a total of six punts against them for 75 yards. That seems like a lot, and it might be, but after Memphis and UConn combined to have there returns for 49 yards, Cincy went three games without allowing any punt return yardage (SMU, Rutgers and Houston) before Louisville returned one punt for 27 yards. No team has returned more than two punts against Cincy in that span.
So the point here, of course, is that if you can't make Cincinnati punt - or you can't field said punt - you can't exploit one of their weaknesses. In the first four games of this six-game win streak, Cincy punted a total of 13 times. But when you're as good as the Bearcats are on third down, you don't have to punt - 56-of-108 (51.9%) during this seven-game win streak, and right at 50% on the season.
And of their 93 drives during the last seven games, 33 have ended in touchdowns and just 24 in punts. Including turnovers on downs, the Bearcats have turned it over 18 times. So nearly as many punts as turnovers. Of those 93 drives, 40 have gone for seven or more plays, 30 for eight or more, 26 for nine or more and 21 for ten or more.
Against Louisville in the season finale - a pretty good defense - Cincy had an insane six drives of ten or more plays (out of 12) and seven went for seven or more. But the Bearcats couldn't hand Louisville its second loss, turning it over on downs in their only overtime possession.
UNC's defense hasn't been great on third down all season, and the pass defense has been up and down. But the Tar Heels have had a knack for getting key turnovers, and that will be key, as will special teams. Cincinnati's kicker has made just 4-of-10 field goals in the last seven games, too.
The Tar Heels still have yet to win the bowl in Charlotte, no matter what the name of it has been over the years (0-3 all-time). Cincinnati will be looking to get its sixth ten-win season in the last seven years, but UNC will be trying to win its first bowl game since 2010 and trying to go into the 2014 season - Larry Fedora's third - with positive momentum.
So many young Tar Heels have stepped up and keyed this turn-around - most of the touchdowns have been scored by freshmen and sophomores - so there's nothing but optimism surrounding the future of this team. But these two teams are red hot: UNC's only loss in the last six games was to a Duke team that went to the ACC Championship game; Cincy's to a 12-1 Louisville team.
Mistake-free football will be the name of the game in this one, and - as Fedora likes to say - game-changing plays in special teams. UNC just has to hope it isn't on the wrong end of those.
