Know Your Opponent: Syracuse

by Bobby Hundley

Syracuse (Cuse.com)

Location: Syracuse, N.Y.

Rankings: No. 69 KenPom, NR AP

Record: 10-6, 0-3 ACC

Carolina Series History (Last Meeting): Carolina leads 5-4 (UNC 93, Syracuse 83, Jan. 26, 2015, Smith Center)

It's tempting to throw out the numbers when looking toward Saturday night's visit to Syracuse. The Orange has lost three straight to start conference play, including a 74-73 overtime setback to Clemson in its ACC home opener. In a road loss at Miami last Saturday, the Orange managed just 0.74 points per possession and was outscored 47-26 after halftime.

But how much will that matter at the Carrier Dome Saturday night when head coach Jim Boeheim leads his team for the first time since starting his nine-game suspension in early December? This is not meant to disparage the work of Mike Hopkins, the longtime assistant who served as the head coach in Boeheim's absence. Hopkins is a well-respected coach and fan favorite from his time as a player under Boeheim as well as the stated heir to the Syracuse coaching throne. Only a 12-point loss at 7-9 St. John's would really qualify as a bad loss during his temporary tenure.

Regardless of the results of the nine games without Boeheim, his return was bound to provide an emotional lift to both players and supporters. Just how big of a lift will remain a mystery until Saturday night. We do know that Syracuse was 6-1 prior to the suspension with quality wins over Connecticut and Texas A&M in the Bahamas and an overtime loss vs. Wisconsin in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. We also know that the Orange has not beaten a top-200 team since that trip to Nassau, due in large part to a floundering offense.

SU ranks in the ACC's bottom third in a number of offensive categories, coming in ahead of only Virginia Tech and Boston College in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom.com. The numbers are even worse in conference play, though the Miami game certainly skews that in a big way.

So what's the problem? Start inside, where Syracuse is without departed senior star Rakeem Christmas as well as 6-10 Chris McCullough, who opted to go pro after an injury-shortened freshman season in 2015. Junior Tyler Roberson is back as the team's top rebounder, and he is joined on the front line by freshman Tyler Lydon. Lydon is an outside threat and a matchup problem at 6-8 as he's made better than 42 percent of his 3s so far.

The backcourt pairing of seniors Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney is a familiar one and the veterans rarely leave the court. Depth is a major issue all over the court for the Orange, which has basically been reduced to a six-man rotation in conference play. Cooney, Gbinije, Roberson and wing Malachi Richardson each played at least 40 minutes against Clemson, with Lydon chipping in 38.

Gbinije has emerged as 'Cuse's top scorer at 18.0 points per game and he's done it in part by shooting more 3s than at any point in his career. Last year, Cooney attempted 230 3s to just 125 for Gbinije despite Cooney making just north of 30 percent of his attempts. This year, Gbinije has already taken 116 3s and he's making almost 40 percent of them. Cooney's volume hasn't really slowed, but he's getting back toward his sophomore year level when he made 37.5 percent from deep. Even in a down 2015, however, Cooney still went for 28 in the Smith Center.

One potential source of depth is sophomore Kaleb Joseph. Last year's starting point guard has seemingly fallen out of favor, having played just 11 minutes in three ACC games without scoring. Another option for bench help could come with the return of freshman Frank Howard, who has been out with an illness but may be available Saturday.

Ultimately, Syracuse's success is tied to the deep ball. In consecutive wins over UConn and A&M, the Orange made 20 of 45 shots (44 percent) from beyond the arc, well above its 35.2 percent success rate in ACC play. Despite the recent struggles, if the emotional bump of Boeheim's return comes with a hot shooting night, a desperate Orange team could still be plenty dangerous.

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