Lucas: Imagine

By Adam Lucas

It's starting to get serious.

This is the time of year we have to decide. Around late February, we pretty much know the Tar Heels, and in our brains, we know what the potential might be.

Don't get me wrong—in our hearts, we're picking them to win the whole thing no matter what. During the 8-20 season, there was some Tar Heel out there who convinced themselves that all Carolina needed was to get hot in the ACC Tournament, win a couple games, take the tourney title, earn a berth to the NCAA Tournament, and then, well, anything could happen.

But for the most part, we know. In 2013, sure, the ceiling was winning a game or two in the NCAA Tournament. In 2015, the pieces were there, but let's be patient.

There are some other seasons, though, when you know the possibilities are a little more tantalizing. That's why you still can't watch a Creighton score go across the bottom line without shuddering. That's why "Utah 1998" still provokes such a visceral reaction. And that's why, three decades later, I'm still mad at Jim Boeheim and Rony Seikaly about that regional final in 1987.

But the pain is worth it, because sometimes those seasons with potential end up like 1993 or 2005 or 2009 or 2017. Sometimes they don't. But there's a chance.

It's starting to look like, in 2019, the Tar Heels might have a chance.

Carolina dismantled a good Florida State team by 18 points on Saturday afternoon, 77-59. The Seminoles came into the game the hottest team in the league and left staggered by a Tar Heel team that—stop me if this sounds familiar—is getting better as the season progresses. Don't for a second make the mistake of believing Saturday was just a routine blowout. Saturday was a statement win from a team against a likely second-weekend NCAA Tournament opponent.

Write this down somewhere you'll be able to find it next Thanksgiving: January Carolina is better than November Carolina. February Carolina is better than December Carolina. And March Carolina is…well, that's what is starting to look pretty exciting.

"It's because of how we play," Cameron Johnson said about the Tar Heels' season-long improvement. "It's all the freelance we do. The playing in transition. Getting used to each other takes some time to develop with different groups. That's how we hit our stride. We're figuring out how to play with each other."

And figuring out the best way to play individually. The scouting report on Johnson got around the ACC that he was mostly a three-point jump shooter. In the last two games, he's scored 37 points on two-point shots and free throws. Seventh Woods went through a rough patch early in league play but now is a steady backup option to Coby White, giving the coaching staff the option of playing White just 27 minutes against a Florida State team that might otherwise require 35 minutes or more. Nassir Little has evolved into Carolina's best option for consistently creating offense at the free throw line and a dynamic presence off the bench who creates matchup problems for opponents.

Say this very quietly so everyone else doesn't figure it out: coaching matters. Very quietly, Roy Williams is doing one of his very best jobs in Chapel Hill, taking a team that just a month ago was loudly proclaimed to be completely three-point dependent…and now beating two straight ranked teams without a great shooting performance.

"We get more confidence and trust in each other and in what the coaches want," Johnson said. "Then you start to see results, and you want to build on them."

That might be the simplest and best analysis of how a well-coached team evolves over the course of a season that you'll ever read. Coaches coach. Players see that it works. Players get better. Team gets better. Ceiling is raised (to the roof, perhaps?).

It happens on the defensive end, too. A Carolina team that was having trouble staying in front of ball-handlers and leaving too many shooters open suddenly looks relatively stout defensively. Florida State shot just 30.5 percent from the field with the Tar Heels playing straight man-to-man for virtually the entire afternoon. Remember, this is all being accomplished without Leaky Black, one of UNC's most versatile pieces, and without backup post option Sterling Manley.

You want another reason to believe? There have been three Carolina teams in the Roy Williams era that have averaged at least 73 possessions per game according to Ken Pomeroy's tempo rating, which shows how many possessions per 40 minutes a team would achieve against an average D1 opponent. Those teams are 2005, 2008 and 2009, with the highest being 2005's 73.1 adjusted tempo.

This year's team is buzzing along at 75.2.

See, I told you it was getting serious.

"Our pace is so unmatched," Little said. "We get a stop and boom, we're running. It allows us to score at such a quick pace. At times, teams try to match our pace, and they take quick shots and we get stops and it tumbles from there."

Remember, this team still has the weapons to score from the perimeter just as effectively as they did a month ago. They haven't shot it well this week, but they're probably closer to the squad that hit 5-for-9 from the arc in Saturday's second half than they are the team that hit 4-for-31 in the previous three halves.

Add that shooting to the improvement and the pace and the coaching—whew, the coaching—and it's easy to start to get a little giddy about March. We'll watch games from other conferences a little more closely, thinking about possible matchups. Hypothetical brackets will be dissected. Rituals will be developed.

Maybe this isn't the year. But it's at least got a chance to be the year, and that's all you can ask on February 23. Now, there's potential. Now, there's hope. Now, there's a chance.

Isn't it great…and terrifying? Over the next few weeks, you'll persuade yourself that completely meaningless facts like Clemson winning the football title or Villanova winning last year's basketball title or the place you sit on the couch is entirely relevant to Carolina's performance on the basketball court. It's one of those years--love them, hate them, endure them, or all of those at the same time.

"Imagine us hitting shots like we regularly do," Little said. "It shows how dangerous we are. We have the potential to be a really good team in March."

We can imagine, Nassir. We can imagine.

Players Mentioned

Leaky Black

Cameron Johnson

Nassir Little

Sterling Manley

Coby White

Seventh Woods

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