Carmichael Comments: Getting There

CARMICHAEL COMMENTS: Inside Carolina Women's Basketball
Vol. 3, Edition 15: Getting There
Carolina women's basketball's ACC Tournament run came to an end on Thursday with an 82-71 loss to Wake Forest.
However, the Tar Heels' season run? That's far from over. ESPN projects (and I agree), that a 13-10 overall record, 8-9 in ACC play, is comfortably deserving of an NCAA Tournament berth.
So let's break down some numbers:

Carolina's NET ranking, the evaluation tool discussed in this column a few weeks back, sits at No. 36. When you consider that there are 64 selections, 33 of them of the at-large variety, 36 is a very solid number.
The Tar Heels own three wins over teams ranked above them in the NET: No. 7 NC State, No. 28 Virginia Tech, and No. 30 Georgia Tech. That Virginia Tech win is on the road, too.
Counting those three wins, plus December triumphs over No. 43 Syracuse and No. 48 Wake Forest, the Tar Heels own five wins over NET top 50 teams.
NC State and Syracuse were each ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 when Carolina beat them, with NC State at No. 4 and Syracuse at No. 18.
Carolina is playing extremely well of late, having won five of its last six regular season games, with three of those wins coming on the road. Though every committee is different, there is a sense of recency bias when selections are made – and that is certainly favoring the Tar Heels here.
Yes, Carolina has 10 losses, but let's look at them: eight are against top 50 NET teams (Louisville, NC State, Virginia Tech 2x, Syracuse, Wake Forest 2x, Florida State), and only two of those eight were at home. The other two losses are a season sweep way back in December and early January against No. 70 Miami. Again, not bad losses.

So there you go. No need to argue, because these numbers speak for themselves. I echo Coach Banghart's sentiments after Thursday's game that the Tar Heels have done more than enough to earn a chance to head to San Antonio and the NCAA Tournament.

Here's what else caught my eye this week…

Ustby Shines in ACC Tournament Debut
Despite the setback to Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament, Alyssa Ustby's postseason debut for the Tar Heels was one to remember. The Rochester, Minnesota product scored a career-high 23 points, eclipsing her previous best of 20 against NC State in the Feb. 7 upset win at Carmichael Arena. What's even more remarkable is the way in which she accomplished the feat – 22 of her 23 points came on field goals (one free throw), and all 11 field goals were of the two-point variety. Ustby became the fourth Tar Heel with a 10-field goal game this season, and third with 10 or more two-point field goals – Janelle Bailey (10 on Dec. 17 vs. Syracuse), Petra Holešínská (10 on Jan. 28 at Louisville), and Stephanie Watts (12 on Feb. 18 at Clemson) – while Bailey and Watts were the only two with 10 or more two-point field goals.

"She just keeps getting better," Banghart reflected after the game. "She's been a real bright spot, and she'll continue to be a bright spot for this team because of how hard she plays and how good she wants to be. We look forward to having her play again in March – really well."

Success Breeds Postseason Excitement
The late season-surge for the Tar Heels reinvigorated the enthusiasm about the postseason, both the ACC and NCAA Tournaments, especially for Carolina's young players going through this experience for the first time. Winners of five of the last six regular season games for the first time since 2008, the Tar Heels have seen their confidence skyrocket with each victory.

"If the tournament was six weeks ago, they'd have come in with a little trepidation," Banghart said of her team prior to the Wake Forest game. "Now, they're really excited."

It's not just the idea of playing in the postseason that excites the Tar Heels, it's the idea of prolonging what was a truncated regular season to continue the evident growth pattern from the month of February.
"The team understands they're a better group than we were a month ago, and there's excitement to continue to evolve and continue to compete," Banghart said.

Up Next
Now, the Tar Heels will balance practice and rest before learning their first round NCAA Tournament opponent during the NCAA Selection Show on Monday, March 15^th. The show begins at 7 p.m. on ESPN. Once we hear about the Tar Heels' opponent and game time, we'll have more info about the Tar Heel Sports Network's broadcast info for the game, which will be played on either Sunday, March 21^st, or Monday, March 22^nd.

Also, while there's no Courtney Banghart Show this week, we'll be back next week. Again, be on the lookout for more info on social media about how to listen to the show.

That's all for now! Happy March, and Go Heels!

-Matt