Lucas: One Big Thing

By Adam Lucas

There were so many plays.

Carolina's one-point loss to Stanford on Saturday—the first loss to the Cardinal in program history—had so many moments that could have gone a different way. Missed open shots. Bad shot selection. Failure to defend a simple inbounds pass and straight cut to the basket. A key turnover in a game when Carolina had only five turnovers total. A five-point lead with 4:20 remaining that evaporated.

We could dissect every single one of the above to try and figure out why Carolina lost a very winnable game. We'd likely find that every single person involved, from players to coaches to the fans throwing the chickens during the timeout to you and me, has some sort of responsibility for this one. Maybe you didn't go where you go. Maybe I didn't do what I do. It never really felt like the Smith Center crowd truly believed Stanford might win this one…until they did.

But the details might not matter that much. What matters, as Hubert Davis identified on the Tar Heel Sports Network after the game, was the outcome. "We made too many mistakes to win the game today," he said, and then he identified eight different areas where the Heels were subpar, everything from shot selection to defending out of bounds plays.

"Those little things add up," he said, "and then big things happen. Tonight those big things resulted in a loss."

Which was a very big thing. This was a loss Carolina could not afford. There are no must-win games in January because the entirety of February remains, and a key stretch begins Tuesday at Wake Forest when the Tar Heels have the opportunity to earn some credential-boosting wins.

But to get those wins, they will have to play more crisply than they did on Saturday. The game was another reminder of the very thin margin for error with this year's team. After the one-point loss, they've already had eight one-possession decisions this year. Remember, that's in just 19 games, meaning that approximately half the time they take the court, it's a one-possession outcome.

The 2017 team, just for example—and no one is comparing these two teams, just providing a frame of reference—had six one-possession games the entire season, which means six out of 40 games.

Perhaps a more similar team, the 2015 squad, had five such games. In fact, it's been more than ten years since a Carolina team had more games decided by three points or less. The 2011 squad had nine of them.

Just a reminder: this is only January. This team is going to have more. It's fairly remarkable that this team has already played more close games than any Tar Heel squad in a decade. But it's also a testament to all those details Davis cited after the loss. Carolina is 5-3 in those games, even though it doesn't really feel like it on Saturday night. The next step, though, would be not playing those games in the first place. Don't have breakdowns that allow easy baskets in close games…Execute on offense…Box out…

All of those little things accumulate. And the big things—as we were reminded again on Saturday—follow.

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