University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: MBB Asked & Answered
March 4, 2003 | Men's Basketball
March 4, 2003
By Adam Lucas
With the log-jam in the 5 thru 8 positions of the current ACC standings, four teams will battle to stay out of the play-in game of the ACC Tournament. If UNC ends the season with the same ACC record as Georgia Tech, Virginia and Clemson, which of those teams would the Heels be placed above in the final standings?
A. Hall Barnes, Durham, NC
Of all the teams involved in the current four-way tie for fifth in the ACC--Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia, and the Heels--Carolina may actually have the least control over their destiny. Let's check out the remaining schedules for the teams involved:
The three other teams all play at least one of the other logjammed teams. For that reason, it's almost impossible to apply the tiebreaker rules to this situation and figure out potential ACC Tournament seedings, because so much is going to change between now and Sunday. When the time does come to break potential ties, however, this is the formula used by the ACC:
If there are three or more teams tied, which seems likely in this case, you must create a "mini-conference." For example, if the above four teams were tied, the league would evaluate each team's record against the other three teams. Carolina, having split with everyone involved, would be 3-3. Clemson stands at 4-1 right now. Virginia is at 1-4. Georgia Tech has a 2-2 mark.
If there is a tie within the mini-conference, then the tie is broken by comparing each team's records against the top team in the league. If those marks are equal, then the records against the second-place team are compared, and so on down the standings until the tie is broken. That's also the procedure that is used if there is a two-way tie and the two teams involved split their two regular season matchups.
If all of these various methods fail to break the tie, then a good old-fashioned coin flip is used.
It's a very complicated scenario, but given the various tiebreakers, the possibilities of Carolina slipping into the fifth seed in the ACC Tournament are very slim unless they win out in the regular season.
I was disappointed to see Carolina fans storm the court after Saturday's win over Georgia Tech. Shouldn't that be reserved for big games?
Frank Goines, Duluth, GA
There's been a lot of talk about this over the past couple days. First, it's not like a colossal mass of Tar Heel fans swarmed the court and cut down the nets in celebration. It was about 50 to 100 students (most of whom had been in the risers) who had just seen a very exciting game. Many of the people complaining about the court-storming seem to be fans who weren't at the game, which probably explains their view. If you were in the Smith Center on Saturday, then you felt the emotion of the game and a terrific Carolina comeback. The students weren't storming the court because they were happy the Heels beat Georgia Tech. They were storming the court because Carolina came back from five points down in 29 seconds, overcoming what looked like a hopeless situation. It had nothing to do with the opponent and everything to do with the situation.
It's reminiscent of the 1997 game against NC State, when Carolina had started 0-3 in ACC play and needed a frantic rally to beat the Wolfpack, causing an on-court celebration at the Smith Center. There was some grumbling after the game that UNC's standards were slipping, that fans shouldn't storm the court when the opponent was "just" State. The same people complaining about that game are likely the ones unhappy with Saturday's performance against Tech. Our view is pretty simple: we're talking about 18- and 19-year-old students, many of whom might not have gotten a first-hand look at a classic Carolina comeback during their tenure at Chapel Hill. If they want to storm the court, more power to them.
Carolina has just beaten Ga. Tech. If they win the next the two games, where would that put the Heels with the all important RPI for the big dance? Would they still need to win one or two tourney games to make it in?
Dick Rabil, Gaithersburg, MD
It's time for the weekly gauge of postseason possibilities. If you're still thinking NCAA Tournament, then one of two things needs to happen: either the Heels win the ACC Tournament or they win their final two regular season games and then make it to at least the ACC semifinals.
According to collegerpi.com, Carolina's RPI currently stands at 56, with a strength of schedule rating of 27. That's dropped significantly over the past couple weeks, with both numbers impacted harshly by the game against North Carolina A&T. Wins over Duke and Wake Forest, teams that are both in the top 15 of the RPI, would help immensely and probably vault the Heels back into the "bubble" range of the RPI. Teams in the top 40 of the RPI are generally considered "safe" for the NCAA Tournament, although a 7-9 league record would complicate things. Even with the drop over the past two weeks, Carolina still has the fourth-highest RPI in the ACC, which is the only reason why the Heels can even still remotely think about making the NCAA's as an at-large team.
What has changed over the past two weeks, with losses to Clemson and NC State, is that the Heels can no longer play themselves into the NCAA Tournament with a strong last week. Instead, they can play themselves onto the bubble and then hope for a strong ACC Tournament run. It's also worth noting that the Selection Committee will no longer give the Heels a "boost" for the return of Sean May, since he is out for the season. Instead, they'll have to evaluate Carolina as a team without May, which may lessen the importance of big early-season wins over Kansas and Stanford.
y the way, if you're thinking NIT, the rule is that teams must be at .500, not above .500.
Do you think that teams that play in split conferences
are having better chances to get into the NCAA
Tournament since they don't play every team in their
conference, as do the teams in the ACC, or at least
play them twice?
Tim Garrett, Waynesville, NC
There's no doubt that not playing a round-robin schedule is an advantage for some teams. Texas, for example, only has to play Kansas once. In the Big Ten, Wisconsin has a shot at winning the regular season league title, but they've only played Ohio State, Michigan State and Indiana once. In the SEC, Auburn is squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, a situation helped by the fact that they've only played Kentucky, Georgia, and Florida one time (losing to all three teams).
With that said, however, a round-robin schedule in which every team gets two cracks at their opponent is one of the things that makes the ACC great, and it's something the league should make every effort to preserve the next time they have the inevitable discussions about conference expansion. As much as the unbalanced schedule can help a team like Auburn that has to play a stronger team just once, it can also hurt the Tigers, because they don't get another RPI-boosting and potential credential-building shot at the conference powers. And can you imagine a season in which Carolina only played Wake Forest once, or didn't have a home game against Virginia? As they say on Tobacco Road, "That ain't right."
Was Brian Morrison sitting behind the Carolina bench during the State game and, if so, why? Also, is there tension between McCants and Coach Doherty? I noticed that he sat for much of the last five minutes of the Georgia Tech game. Was this because of his poor defense?
Trey Aycock, Greensboro, NC
Yes, that was Morrison sitting directly behind the Carolina bench against State. Morrison, who is currently enrolled at UCLA, spent a few days in Chapel Hill last week. Although you didn't ask, we'd add that Morrison was joined behind the bench by Julius Peppers, whose choice of jersey for each contest is rapidly turning into an entertaining part of every game. Against the Pack, Peppers selected a LeBron James "retro" jersey, and against Tech he sported a custom-made Sean May Tar Heel jersey--not May's actual game jersey (the lettering and side panels were different from a gamer), but a shirt designed especially for Peppers with May's name on the back.
As for McCants and Doherty, it's evident from the substitution patterns that the coaching staff would like for McCants to be a little tougher on defense, which is why he was removed in defensive situations against the Yellow Jackets. He particularly needs to improve his awareness in man-to-man defense when his man does not have the ball. The freshman did well in that aspect for the first five minutes against Tech, but then seemed to lose some of his focus.
Adam Lucas will answer your questions about the Carolina men's basketball program this season in an exclusive column published each Tuesday. Lucas, editor of the Tar Heel Monthly, will answer your questions on personnel, strategy, opponents and anything on your mind about the Tar Heels OTHER THAN RECRUITING SPECIFICS. Please send your questions to Adam at alucas@tarheelmonthly.com, and include your first and last names and your hometown.
