University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag March 2
March 2, 2004 | Men's Basketball
March 2, 2004
By Adam Lucas
Three quick updates before we get to this week's questions. First, we've gotten a lot of questions about what was being chanted at Rashad McCants in Sunday's game at the RBC Center. Let's just put it this way: it was ridiculous and low-class, and clearly Herb Sendek didn't hear it or else he would have put a stop to it in the interests of the ACC's sportsmanship push.
Secondly, after covering the RPI in recent mailbags, we've gotten some requests to update where the Tar Heels stand in that rating. As of this morning, Carolina is 12th, with a schedule that is rated the second-toughest in the country. Other ACC teams in the top 25 are: Duke 1, Wake Forest 7, NC State 13, Georgia Tech 24.
And finally, yes, we really are planning on putting our All-ACC ballot online. The voting deadline is Sunday, March 7, so we'll include it in next week's column. The various All-ACC teams, including All-Freshman and All-Defensive, will be released next week prior to the ACC Tournament.
During Carolina's '82 title run, Dean Smith wanted to run and gun similarly as Roy does. But even Coach Smith adjusted his approach because of his lack of depth and played more zone than he wanted. It may be possible that Roy may not have recruited this particular group of kids to play at Carolina, but regardless, it seems that with the high level of athleticism that Carolina has, they can still produce an aggressive zone of a sort, still run, and perhaps save the legs. The system works as we have seen at Kansas, but not having the depth to run it can burn out even this level of athletes. What do you think?
Jordan Arnold, Richmond, Va.
We're giving Jordan the "Foreshadower of the Week" award, because he sent this email before Carolina's game at NC State on Sunday. The Tar Heels actually played their point zone, not a 1-3-1, on several key possessions, and it seemed to slow down the Wolfpack as they tried to figure out how to attack it. Using multiple defenses is like a football team that throws in the occasional blitz--it keeps the opposition guessing and sometimes can make them think too much. The Pack missed 10 of the first 11 shots that they took against the point zone, and when Herb Sendek appeared to spend most of a timeout explaining how to attack the defense, Roy Williams promptly send his team back out in man-to-man.
Carolina is never going to play exclusively, or perhaps even mostly, zone under Williams. It tends to slow the game down, and he wants to speed the game up. It's also somewhat harder to rebound out of the zone, because instead of having a designated man to box out, every defender has to identify a player in his vicinity. That's not good news for a Tar Heel team that has occasionally had trouble boxing out even in the man-to-man. But, as was shown against State, a team with very little midrange attack that tends to shoot either three-pointers or layups, it's a nice change of pace. And if the opposition is missing their perimeter shots, it's a good way to catch a few seconds of rest instead of chasing the opposing offense all over the floor. Of course, if the opposition is making their perimeter shots, then the old "Carolina can't defend the perimeter" arguments spring up again.
While watching the Virginia game on T.V. and listening to Woody announce it on the radio, Phil Ford explained that Virginia was using the "Box and One" to cover McCants. He then explained that UNC should play the "Box and One" as they would a "Zone" defense because of its "Zone" like qualities. Other than the obvious fact that the "Box and One" has four persons playing zone, would you explain the similarities and differences in running an offense against a "Box and One" as opposed to the standard "Zone"? (I.E. Can we get McCants open....or should we be looking somewhere else?)
Daniel Roberts, Cornelius....Grad '01
As both Roy Williams and Dean Smith have said, they're not interested in taking what the defense gives them. They want to take what they want to take. For that reason, it's not wise to give up on getting the ball to a player facing a junk defense, as Rashad McCants did at Virginia. The main way a box-and-one works is by frustrating the player facing the "one." It's not particularly technically tough to beat, but it can take its toll mentally. A player like McCants is used to being one of the focal points of Carolina's offense, which means touching the ball frequently in good scoring position. From a defense's perspective, the main advantage of a box-and-one is that it takes him out of that role and may frustrate him. It's not a defense that's practiced against very much, so when some players realize they're facing a junk defense, they tend to let is psych them out. That's exactly what happened against the Cavaliers, as McCants stood around on the wing too much. When a player isn't moving, he's very easy to guard.
It's still possible for the player facing the "one" to score against a box-and-one. The keys, like with any offense, are for that player to keep moving and try to set screens. The screening complicates the job of the defense and usually results in either a wide-open look for one of the other four players or a better shot for the player facing the "one."
It appears that Sean May is out of shape. In several games it seems like he can't finish plays, it's like he's lost his legs. Specifically Sean appeared to struggle in the later stages of games against WFU (home & away), Duke, FSU (home & away). Many folks say Sean is playing out of position, but the other centers in the league are about his size (Eric Williams, Jamar Smith & Shelden Williams). What do you think is going on with Sean?
Bobby Fulk, Winston-Salem, NC
As far as playing out of position, in a perfect college basketball world, Sean May would probably be a power forward. But that perfect world evaporated when every player who stands over 6-foot-9 and can make a layup with his left hand started declaring for the NBA Draft.
May is not in perfect condition. He battled foot problems all last summer, and the coaching staff has been advised that the residual effects from a stress fracture can last up to a year. For that reason, he went through less conditioning work than his teammates, and it's showed.
ut before you pack his suitcase, consider that despite those problems, he's still leading the league in rebounding, and he's posted 11 double-doubles this season. After a rough stretch that began with the game at Maryland and ran through the Duke game, he's bounced back to make at least 50 percent of his shots in his last four games. He is also, in most respects, a model teammate, willing to take responsibility when he makes a mistake and absolutely intent on soaking up every bit of coaching this staff has to offer.
I have heard that the "Carolina system" uses a point system to evaluate team performance for games. Without giving away any trade secrets, could you enlighten us as to how this system works?
Dr. Richard Rand, Cookeville, TN
What you're probably thinking of is the points per possession statistic, which was created by Dean Smith to evaluate offensive and defensive efficiency. Coach Smith calculated total possessions by adding all the stats that end a possession: field goals attempted, turnovers, and trips to the free throw line. When you divide Carolina's number of points by their number of possessions, you get the points per possession, or offensive efficiency, rating. Likewise, the defensive efficiency rating is computed by dividing the opponent's points by their number of possessions. With the three-point shot, an offensive efficiency rating of around 0.95 is considered good, and a defensive efficiency rating of below 0.85 is considered good. So far this season, the Tar Heels' offensive efficiency rating is .93, while their defensive efficiency rating is .86-which lends credence to the theory that this team still has room to improve defensively.
Another of Smith's favorite stats was percent loss of ball, which is computed by dividing turnovers by total possessions. A figure of .13 or below is terrific, and anything up to .18 is considered good. Opponents should be at .22 or higher. So far this season, Carolina opponents have a .212 figure, while Carolina is hovering just under .17.
I was reading an interesting article by Joe Lunardi (who does weekly bracket projections for ESPN.com) that was about Adjusted Scoring Margins (ASM). He says this rates how you have been playing against other teams, similar to the RPI. It does so by taking the difference between your scoring average and the opponents points allowed average, then adding this number to the difference in scoring average of opponents and your points allowed.
If this doesn't make sense here's the link.
asically I don't have the resources to come up with these numbers, but he said UNC was in the top 5 in this category nationally, and that in the past 4 years, the top teams in such a category have done the best in the NCAA tourney. I was wondering what you thought about this and if you could give me some numbers to think about for Carolina and possibly the other top 5 or 10 schools.
Brent Hill, New Bern, NC
If you're like us, you had one overwhelming reaction after reading Brent's email: "Huh?"
No one ever accused us of being a math whiz, and I'm one of those people who took statistics in college because I thought it was going to be a course about batting averages and field goal percentage. But after reading the above-linked article, he has actually hit on a very interesting statistic. It's pretty simple, actually: just average the scoring and scoring defense of a team's opponents and compare it to the scoring and scoring defense of the team in question.
Unfortunately, Brent, our crack Mailbag staff couldn't find a site that lists all the scoring averages and scoring defenses for every team in the country. If anyone knows of such a site, please drop us an email and let us know. If we can find the necessary stats, we'll try to include an update on this in the next Mailbag.
Adam Lucas will answer your questions about the Carolina men's basketball program this season in an exclusive column published each Tuesday on TarHeelBlue.com. Lucas, editor of Tar Heel Monthly, will answer your questions on personnel, strategy, opponents and anything on your mind about the Tar Heels other than recruiting specifics. You can email your questions to Adam--please make sure to include your first and last names and hometown.
