University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag Jan. 3
January 3, 2006 | Men's Basketball
Jan. 3, 2006
By Adam Lucas
Happy New Year to all the Mailbag readers. A couple quick notes before we get to the questions. First, on the delay issue: don't forget that thanks to Ben Alexander you can now listen with no delay in the Smith Center. We've gotten some questions about that frequency, and it's good for inside the building only. Also, Ed Robeson dropped us a note to let us know that if you have a computer beside your radio receiver, there's software called the AudioSyncer you can try. More information is available here. We've never tried the software, so this isn't a recommendation, just some information.
Don't forget about the TarHeelBlue.com auctions, which are a great way to get unique Carolina basketball items. The latest item up for bid is a ballkid experience for the Arizona game. Sure, your son or daughter gets one of the best seats in the house for the game, but don't forget that you get two tickets to the game as well.
We got a question recently asking about "some kind of stats that go with the Mailbag." Those are the Tuesday Talking Points, and they're on the front page every Tuesday accompanying this story. There's some good stuff this week, so check them out.
The 2006 media guide lists "National Player of the Year" as the only criteria for a UNC player to have his jersey retired. If this is the case, then why aren't Kenny Smith and Jerry Stackhouse's jerseys retired? James Worthy's only National POY award was as co-winner of the Helms Foundation National POY award (Ralph Sampson was basically the consensus national POY), so how is #52 retired but #30 and #42 are not?
I certainly am not saying that Worthy's jersey should not be retired, because I think it should be. However, I am confused at how we appear to subjectively apply what is supposed to be an objective standard.
Brian Meacham
James Worthy was named National Player of the Year by the Helms Foundation, Kenny Smith by Basketball Times and Jerry Stackhouse by Sports Illustrated. There was no policy in place when Worthy received his award. He was named NPOY and Coach Smith and the athletic department officials determined his jersey should be retired (and rightfully so). In other words, he pre-dated the policy you're referencing.
At some point after that, criteria was established that only organizations the NCAA considers "major" would be recognized to retire a jersey. Currently, the NCAA benchmarks five NPOY honors (the Associated Press, the National Association of Basketball Coaches, the US Basketball Writers Association, Wooden Award and Naismith Award). That makes future retirement selections much more cut-and-dry, which in some cases might be preferable.
However, this also gives us the chance to point out what a great player Worthy was. We're not necessarily pointing this at Brian, because he outright said he believes Worthy's number should be retired. He's right. The Gastonia native is too often overlooked because he happened to play on the same championship team with Michael Jordan, a situation compounded by the fact that Jordan made the title-winning shot. But the Tar Heels never would've been close enough to need a game-winning shot without Worthy. His 28 points against Georgetown rank with the best Carolina championship performances of all-time. The fact that under the current criteria Worthy's jersey might not be retired speaks to how difficult it is to come up with black-and-white criteria on a subject like this. By making the requirement a "national" award, you're putting the decision into the hands of people who aren't necessarily "Carolina people." That's both good and bad. It's good because it eliminates some subjectivity and general "feel" that we believe Carolina observers have for the game, and it's also bad for that very reason.
I thought Danny Green had a tremendous game against Santa Clara. Offensively, his shot selection was much better than prior games as evidenced by the points he scored. However, his defensive intensity and ability to block shots impressed me the most. Has he been working extra hard on his defensive fundamentals and do you foresee him as the season progresses to be one of our go to guys?
Davis Allen, Greenville, NC
Green has definitely been working hard on his defensive intensity, because that's been an area the coaches have been emphasizing to him. He primarily played zone defense in high school, so learning the intricacies of Carolina's man-to-man has been a challenge.
You're correct about his improved shot selection. He's cut down on the wild dashes to the basket in recent games, and after hitting just 11-of-34 shots from the field in the previous five games, he's made at least 50 percent of his shots from the floor in Carolina's last three games. It's no coincidence that he's also improved his assist/turnover ratio in those last three games. His 11-rebound performance against UNC-Asheville was a career high and showed some flashes of the way coaches expect him to be a continual stat-stuffer during his Carolina career.
"Everybody is getting so much more comfortable," he said recently. "It's coming much more naturally and we're not having to think as much on the court. I know I have to be aggressive in order to keep the defense honest, so I want to keep attacking them. But I also want to keep my teammates involved. And I know that at Carolina, if you take bad shots you won't play."
It's possible that he could work his way into a go-to role, but that's a crowded area at the moment. The first option for a Carolina team will always be to get the ball inside to the big man (Tyler Hansbrough), and David Noel is option 1A at winning time. Instead, Green reminds us--just like anyone else, we're prone to falling for the ol' "let's compare players" disease--a bit more of another Tar Heel: Ademola Okulaja. He was never the primary option until his senior year (and even then he needed Ed Cota to create for him) but he had a solid Carolina career. In fact, it might've been more solid than many fans realize. Okulaja's freshman numbers:
26.8 MPG, 53.4% FG, 52.6% 3PT, 73.4% FT, 6.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG.
If Green could nudge his shooting numbers a little closer to Okulaja's (and he's on the right course to do that with his improved shot selection), he'd be on track to have an outstanding rookie campaign.
Who do you think is the winner? Could any player today handle the pure shooting of the legendary Pete Brennan? The Outer Banks wants to know.
Ralph Hodges,III, Kitty Hawk, NC
Brennan, for those who don't know, was a key member of the 1957 championship-winning squad (and a current Outer Banks resident). He shot 41.7% from the field for his Carolina career, a good figure for a 6-foot-6 forward. In fact, his shooting played a major role in that championship, as his length-of-the-court dash and jumper against Michigan State sent the national semifinals into overtime.
This gives me the opportunity to once again remind folks that a book on the 1957 team is in the research stage and will be released in the fall of 2006. If you personally saw any games that season or otherwise had contact with the '57 Tar Heels, drop us an email.
According to SI.com, UNC's defense is atrocious, ranking only 78th in the country in defensive efficiency: SI story
However, I've felt throughout the season that UNC's defense is what
keeps us in games. What gives? What is the defensive efficiency rating,
and why are the Heels ranked so lowly despite playing with what appears
to be solid defense all season long?
As Scott probably knew when he clicked Send, I'm a sucker for these types of questions. If you want a guaranteed appearance in the Mailbag, reference some sort of quirky stat that is outside of the usual group of statistics normally used in basketball analysis.
The first thing to consider is that the above-linked story is almost two weeks old. Carolina's numbers have since gotten much better, according to Ken Pomeroy, who is one of the best sources for stats like this.
But what exactly is defensive efficiency? It's an effort to try and remove pace of play from the equation when comparing the defensive success of basketball teams. In other words, the points per game allowed by Wisconsin (for example) will always be lower than Carolina's. The two teams play very different styles. But that doesn't mean Wisconsin is necessarily a better defensive team than Carolina, which is why defensive efficiency was born. The formula is simple:
Defensive Efficiency=Points scored/(100 possessions)
This is yet another example of how far ahead of his time Dean Smith was. He believed in measuring things per possession very early in his career (regular readers know this is the part of the column where we encourage you to buy Multiple Offense and Defense), but it's just now being seen as a cutting-edge statistic. In other words, he was almost half a century ahead of his time. And you wonder how he racked up 879 wins?
When you're poking through that Ken Pomeroy link, consider that the raw numbers are based only on actual results. The adjusted figures take into account quality of competition and the site of games, with a slight weight given to more recent games.
Remember that Dean Smith believed possessions had to be charted while watching the game because three things could end a possession--a turnover, a missed field goal rebounded by the defense, or a trip to the free throw line. The first two are easily found in the box score. The third is not. Pomeroy uses the following formula to estimate possessions based on the boxscore:
Possessions=FGA-OR+TO+.475(FTA)
If you're just interested in the bottom line, here it is: Carolina's adjusted defensive efficiency is currently 40th in the country (but interestingly, 3rd in the ACC behind Duke and Florida State). They were 7th in the country last year and 22nd the year before that, so some improvement is needed if this team is to rank near Roy Williams's other Carolina teams. Why isn't this team ranked as highly as the previous two years? Partly because they're not defending the perimeter as well. Opponents are hitting 38 percent of their three-pointers this year; they made just 34 percent last year and 35 percent the year before that.
What is the reason UNC traveled to Southern California for one game only? Usually when teams make cross country trips they stay for an extended period of time. Do they have a home and home contract with USC? With a young group it would have seemed to me to make more sense to stay close to home after exams and before the holidays. What is the logic in traveling to California for one game?
Mike, Bronx, NY
The Southern Cal game was part of a home-and-home contract. The Trojans played in Chapel Hill last year, so the Tar Heels had to return the favor this year. Originally, that trip might have been part of a two-game West Coast swing that would have included a stop in Seattle to play the Washington Huskies. That game would have been the "home" game for Marvin Williams. But Williams left for the NBA after his freshman season, so the series with Washington didn't happen.
As for staying close to home before the holidays, that's not always the best way to do things. Playing a road game before the break has one very important benefit: players can leave straight from the game to return home. In other words, the team didn't travel back to Chapel Hill as a unit--instead, they scattered from Los Angeles. That can be a big help under NCAA rules, and that's why the last game before Christmas break has been a significant (read: flight required) road game for the Tar Heels in 13 of the last 16 seasons.
That being said, look for Carolina to continue to make very frequent West Coast trips in future years. Roy Williams is extremely popular in that area of the country and it has been fertile recruiting territory for him both at Kansas and at Carolina. Playing games there increases the program's visibility and gives him a chance to maintain connections with important contacts.
Brownlow's Down Low
In conversations with some Duke fans it has come to my attention that Bobby Frasor has similar stats to Greg Paulus. Our arguments center around the fact that Paulus, who has a slightly higher assist average than Frasor, has many more potent offensive weapons than Frasor (i.e. J.J. Redick) and fewer points per game. My question is why do you think that Frasor gets so little press compared to Paulus? For that matter what are the numbers when comparing some of the Duke point guards with the lesser heralded Carolina point guards?
Jason Adams, Tucson, AZ
Lauren writes: The hype difference you're likely referring to is due mostly to the McDonald's All-American game. Like Adam, I also don't follow recruiting terribly closely, but I like to check on how that weekend went. Paulus was clearly the best point guard in that game, with 13 points and 9 assists in 24 minutes, leading the East to a 115-100 victory. Frasor played only 14 minutes in the West's losing effort and scored only 2 points on free throws. He also didn't get a single assist. How a prospect does in an All-America game, the first public forum to non-recruiting junkies, is important in how he is perceived until he proves otherwise.
As for this year, the high-profile freshman on Carolina's squad is Tyler Hansbrough, while it seems to be Paulus for Duke. Both have made a name for themselves in different ways--Hansbrough has been consistently very good, while Paulus had a breakout game against Valparaiso, setting a single-game freshman record with 15 assists. He has been compared to the great Duke point guard Bobby Hurley. Otherwise, the two are pretty even so far--Paulus is averaging 2.75 turnovers a game, while Frasor is averaging 2.78. Paulus is averaging 5.16 assists and Frasor is averaging 4.67.
Despite all the press about Carolina relying on mostly freshmen, it turns out that Frasor actually plays 27.4 minutes a game to Paulus's 29.8 minutes. Paulus actually averages more minutes per game than any UNC freshman, even Tyler Hansbrough, who averages 28.8 minutes per game. The only Tar Heel playing more than 30 minutes per game is David Noel at 33.4, while three Duke players are averaging more than 30 minutes. This year, only seven Blue Devils are averaging more than 10 minutes a game, whereas nine Tar Heels play more than 10 minutes.
Most people would agree that the best point guard in Duke history is Bobby Hurley, while the best Carolina point guard is Phil Ford. Both made the ACC 50th Anniversary team, and both have had their share of accolades. Ford is the only ACC Player of the Year to ever lead the conference in both scoring and assists, and was no doubt a more formidable scorer than Hurley. But Hurley still holds the ACC record for most career assists with 1,076, while Phil Ford comes in 10th on that list.
There are plenty of point guards that we Carolina fans feel are underhyped, and so we are inclined to be defensive about that. How about King Rice and Jeff Lebo? Both rank in the top 25 in both career assists and career assist-turnover ratio in ACC history. Derrick Phelps and Ed Cota are probably two of the best examples of such underhyping. Cota's career assists rank third in ACC history; Phelps' assist total is 20th, but his great defense led to a lot of steals that gave him the 10th best steal total in the ACC.
However, to play a little devil's advocate (no pun intended) I'd like to nominate my choice for most underhyped Blue Devil's point guard--Chris Duhon. I count myself among the guilty; I had no idea that Duhon's career stats are not only amongst some of the Duke elites, but are also comparable to some ACC elites, as well. His 519 career assists are 6th in ACC history and his 300 steals are 4th in ACC history and 1st in Duke history. His assist-turnover ratio of 2.307 is seventh in ACC history and is ahead of any Tar Heel. The closest Carolina point guard in that list is Jeff Lebo at 10th best with a 2.21 assist-turnover ratio. In Duhon's four years at Duke, he led them to a 123-21 record, making him the second-winningest player in ACC history. No one can forget that dagger to the heart also known as the Duhon lay-up that beat the Heels in overtime at the Smith Center in 2004.
My point is, a lot of point guards end up being underhyped for various reasons. My previous Ed Cota Brownlow's Down Low perhaps best explains some of the reasons for that, such as other players on one's own team overshadowing the skills of the point guard, or even other players in the league. Right now, Paulus has simply done more to attract attention than Frasor. I think the point guard battles between these two will end up being epic and I am looking forward to seeing how the two match up.
Adam Lucas is the publisher of Tar Heel Monthly and can be reached at alucas@tarheelmonthly.com. He is the coauthor of the official book of the 2005 championship season, Led By Their Dreams, and his book on Roy Williams's first season at Carolina, Going Home Again, is now available in bookstores. To subscribe to Tar Heel Monthly or learn more about Going Home Again, click here.
