University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag March 7
March 7, 2006 | Men's Basketball
March 7, 2006
By Adam Lucas
We've got a ton of stuff this week, so just a quick note before we get rolling. TarHeelBlue.com readers were a big part of making last year's Reece Holbrook Golf Classic a big success. In the event's first year, it raised over $140,000 for kids impacted by pediatric cancer. If you missed it, you can still learn more about Reece.
Things went so well last year that it's become an annual event. The second annual Reece Holbrook Golf Classic will be held on May 1, with an extensive live and silent auction the night before at the Hampton Inn & Suites. We encourage you to learn more about the event and get involved. The event website has all the information you need to get started.
Now, it's ACC Tournament week, which means it's time for an annual Mailbag event: the public unveiling of my All-ACC ballot. Votes were due Sunday by 8 p.m. The teams were released yesterday.
My ballot looked like this:
First team: First, the no-brainers--J.J. Redick, Shelden Williams, and Tyler Hansbrough. I also voted for David Noel even though I knew he probably wouldn't make the first team. But when Roy Williams says you're one of the best leaders he's ever seen (Williams on Noel last week: "David Noel, in my opinion, is more responsible for a team's success than maybe any player who has ever played here." That is the definition of a "wow" comment from a coach who just doesn't say things like that about individuals) and your team finishes a surprising second, you deserve some recognition. The fifth spot was tough. Once you get past the no-brainers, it really starts becoming about who you've seen play the most. I'm a big Al Thornton fan, but his numbers didn't measure up to Craig Smith of Boston College. Plus (and this is where the unbalanced schedule can help or hurt), Smith was terrific the one time I saw him in person. So I went with Smith. See, this isn't exactly a science.
Another quick word about Noel--consider this quote from Roy Williams Monday afternoon: "I am very pleased for David Noel. I would have been more pleased had he been a first-team pick, because he has meant that much to us on and off the court. If people had seen and truly understood what he has meant to us behind the scenes, he may have made the first team."
Williams doesn't usually campaign for individual awards. His support of Noel indicates how strongly he feels about the Durham senior.
Second team: I think Thornton, Guillermo Diaz, and Sean Singletary are fairly safe choices. I also went with Jared Dudley of Boston College, who had very good numbers in ACC games. Here's one that may be surprising: I also picked Eric Williams of Wake Forest. His team was terrible, but he was second in the league in rebounding and 11th in scoring. Put him on a better team and he'd be a first-team pick.
Third team: This is where it gets challenging, because there's a group of about 10 players who could fill this team. My first choice was Reyshawn Terry. I also picked Justin Gray, just for his sheer scoring numbers, even though he's taken a lot of shots to do it. His past played a role here--I have to figure that if he wasn't forced to play so much point guard, his shooting numbers would be better. Speaking of which, I also went with Robert Hite of Miami. That's 13 players and still no members of the NC State Wolfpack, which finished fourth. Cedric Simmons, Ilian Evtimov, and Cameron Bennerman all have arguments here. I went with Bennerman. Look at how bad State looked without him against Wake--he must be fairly important to their team. Simmons tailed off at the end of the year or he would have been the pick. My final selection was Zabian Dowdell of Virginia Tech.
All-Freshman: The no-brainers--Hansbrough, Greg Paulus, Bobby Frasor. Josh McRoberts is probably close to a no-brainer. And Tyrese Rice had a nice year for Boston College. This was the easiest team to pick.
All-Defensive: Shelden Williams and ACC steals leader Vernon Hamilton head the squad. I also picked the Hokie backcourt duo of Jamon Gordon and Dowdell. For the fifth spot, I racked my brain trying to come up with a player who I'd observed making life difficult for opposing teams this year. Someone who opposing players didn't seem to like playing against, someone who gave as much or more effort on defense than they did on offense. Does that sound like anyone you know? Me too, and that's why I picked Wes Miller. People who haven't watched him harass point guard after point guard this year won't like this pick, but Miller has changed the complexion of some games on defense this season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Shelden Williams.
Rookie of the Year: Hansbrough.
Coach of the Year: Let's take a look at the candi...oh, never mind. Roy Williams.
Player of the Year: J.J. Redick.
It wouldn't be surprising if at least two, and possibly three, of the above individual awards are unanimous. It wouldn't be surprising...except that ACC voting is almost never unanimous. Which is why we think it's important to make balloting public. Somewhere in the voting there will be a head-scratcher, and I look forward to highlighting it in this space next week.
Do you know if anyone keeps (tracks) a plus/minus stat for basketball, similar to hockey? It just seems like when certain UNC players are in we outscore the opponent. Do you think the plus/minus stat would be a metric that is indicative of productivity within the team's framework?
Michael Craig, Charlotte, NC
I definitely know of one person: my former criminal law professor at UNC, Arnold Loewy. The plus/minus stat for basketball is something that's caught on in the past couple years, but he was doing it way back in 2000. I can still remember him showing me numbers backing up his assertion that Ronald Curry was playing better than people thought.
Plus/minus stats are readily available for the NBA. Some observers even go so far as to keep the plus/minus stats of certain lineups, which is a great evolution of the stat. Sometimes, for whatever reason, certain lineups just gel, and that's a great way to quantify that success. However, we're not aware of anywhere online that has complete college basketball plus/minus stats. As has been written here before, there's really a great opportunity in the stats-hungry ACC for someone to start keeping up with stuff like this and become somewhat of the "Bill James of the ACC."
This season we've lost twice as many home games as road ones. I realize
we haven't played our toughest road game yet, but how often do we lose
more at home than on the road? With the Dean Dome touted as a
relatively tough place to win in, at least by ESPN's Homecourt
Advantage, and the ACC being a league with no sure road wins (as UVA
teaches us on a regular basis) it seems like this is an unusual season
for us.
Mell Perling, Atlanta, GA
This is both a good and bad question. It's good because, well, it's just a good question. It's bad because when you're in the business of thinking about stuff like this all the time, it makes you punch yourself in the face and say, "Why didn't I think of looking that up before?" So, Mell, thanks for the good question and the black eye.
Carolina finished 13-4 at home and 8-2 on the road this season (the Heels have yet to play a neutral site game this year, which will change this weekend in Greensboro). Losing more games at home than on the road has only happened twice since the ACC was formed in 1953. The 1973 squad went 6-3 at home and 5-2 on the road, and the 1976 group was 8-1 at home and 10-0 on the road.
Some time in the mid- to late-'90s, UNC was down, at home, and at a time
out, Coach Smith said it was alright that we were going to lose, and
Ademola Okulaja screamed "NO!", an exclamation noticed not only by fans
in the Dean dome, but cameras as well. Coach Smith then drew up plans
for a comeback, ending in a dramatic UNC win. I think I'm off on
almost all of the details I even think I can remember, except for the
dramatic "NO!", for I can only appeal to my increasingly unreliable
memory. Can you clear up this moment -- one of the beautiful little
moments of Carolina coaching excellence?
Michael Trotti, Ithaca, NY
It was a 1997 NCAA Tournament game against Louisville. That was the year, you'll remember, that Carolina was riding a long winning streak in the NCAA Tournament. They'd bolted to a 21-point lead over the Cardinals, but Louisville had trimmed the deficit to six. That's when, during a timeout, Dean Smith mentioned that it had been a great season and maybe it was coming to an end.
"I screamed a loud scream--aaah!--just to interrupt that thought from settling in anybody's mind," Okulaja said. "I didn't want to hear that. It just came out. Coach looked at me and just kept on. I was really quiet after that because no one interrupts him."
It worked, as the Tar Heels finished the game on a hot streak to claim a 97-74 win and a Final Four berth, stretching their winning streak to 16 games.
How many other Tar Heel seniors (other than David Noel's 26 last week) have
scored their career high in points during their final home game for
Carolina?
Matt Waters, Washington, NC
Finding career high information isn't an exact science. But it looks like the most recent Carolina regular to notch a career high in their Carolina senior day was Jason Capel, who scored 28 points against Clemson on Feb. 27, 2002. The most famous, of course, is Phil Ford, who tossed in 34 points at Carmichael Auditorium on Feb. 26, 1978, in one of the most emotional senior days ever.
Brownlow's Down Low
Being a typical mailbag reader, I was just poring over statistics and
noticed an interesting fact about David Noel. He's in the top-3 on the
team in every major statistical category except free throws - minutes
played, points, rebounds, assists, turnovers, steals, blocks, fouls,
field goal percentage, and three point field goal percentage (not
counting Dewey Burke at 1 for 2). Is there a player in recent (or
ancient) Carolina history that has been as involved in every facet of
the game as much as Noel?
Scott Owens, Carrboro, NC
Lauren writes: Although Reyshawn Terry has since passed Noel in blocks aided by a three-block performance against Duke on Saturday, Noel still ranks in the top three of every other category Scott mentioned except free throws. According to the Carolina record books, at the end of the year, the only players eligible for the top field goal percentage have to have made at least 85 field goals, 50 free throws for free throw percentage, and 25 3-pointers for 3-point percentage. Based on those criteria, it doesn't look like Noel, who has only made 29 free throws this season, will qualify for that statistic (though at 65%, he still wouldn't rank in the top three). Noel ranks first in only two categories - turnovers and minutes - but is second in most every other, including field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, rebounds, assists and steals.
It's worth mentioning that Terry is similarly involved in all facets of the game, ranking in the top three of every category except assists and minutes played. The only category he ranks first in is fouls with 82, but if the season ended today, his 93 made free throws would put his 78.1% at the free throw line slightly ahead of Danny Green's 78.7% (he has only made 47 free throws to this point). He also ranks second in points (14.2) and blocks (23). Tyler Hansbrough has also showed similar statistical domination, rounding out the top three in all of the aforementioned categories except assists, turnovers and 3-point percentage (though if he were eligible, his 2 of 3 from beyond he arc - 66.7% - would put him in first).
Even though statistics were somewhat limited in the `50s, stats such as field goal percentage, free throw percentage, points, rebounds and fouls have always been kept. That being said, Lennie Rosenbluth was probably the first Tar Heel documented as dominating all categories. In 1954-55 and 1955-56, he led the Heels in all of the categories except free throw percentage (he was second); in 1956-57, he led the Heels in every category except rebounding (he was second) and fouls. Pete Brennan led the Heels in scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage and fouls and ranked third in free throw percentage in 1958. In 1960, Lee Shaffer led Carolina in field goal percentage and points and ranked second in free throw percentage, rebounds and fouls. Jim Hudock only led the Heels in field goal percentage in 1961 but was second in rebounds and fouls and third in free throw percentage and points. In 1962, he led the Heels in only rebounds and fouls but ranked second in points, fee throw percentage and field goal percentage.
Billy Cunningham was in the top three of every major category all three years of his Carolina career. He led the Heels in rebounds, points, and fouls every season and managed to make at least the top three in field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Even Lennie Rosenbluth didn't lead the Heels in rebounds and points for all three years. But even during Cunningham's dominant senior year at Carolina, his teammate Bob Lewis managed to crack the top three in all five categories, even leading the Heels in free throw percentage and ranking third in fouls and second in field goal percentage, points, and rebounds. He managed the top three in all categories again his junior season (1965-66), leading the Heels in points and free throw percentage and ranking third in fouls and second in fouls and field goal percentage, but he fell out his senior year. His teammate Larry Miller managed to find the top three in the major categories every year except his senior year (1967-68), when he failed to make the top three in fouls. Rusty Clark was in the top three in every category both his sophomore and junior seasons (1966-67 and 1967-68), and teammate Bill Bunting joined him in that feat in the 1967-68.
Assists were added as a statistic in the 1968-69 season, and Rusty Clark was again in the top three in every category except assists, leading the Heels in rebounding. Bill Bunting was also in the top three of every category except assist, ranking second in scoring and leading the Heels in both free throw and field goal percentage. Charlie Scott led the Heels in free throw percentage and scoring, ranked second in assists and rebounds and third in field goal percentage to rank in the top three of every category but fouls in the 1969-70 season.
Dennis Wuycik was consistently in the top three of all categories except assists during his last two years as a Tar Heel. He led the Heels in field goal percentage, free throw percentage, scoring, and ranked second in fouls and third in rebounding in the 1970-71 season. In his senior season (1971-72) he led the Heels in free throw percentage and fouls, ranked second in field goal percentage and points, and finished third in rebounding. Mr. Everything Bobby Jones was in the top three of every major category in the 1972-73 season, leading the Heels in rebounding and ranking second in points, field goal percentage and assists. In his senior season (1973-74), he led the Heels in field goal percentage, points, and rebounds; ranked second in fouls and third in assists, but failed to make the top three in free throw percentage.
Jones's excellent defense as a Tar Heel was a big reason that steals and blocks were added as statistics in the 1975-76 season. In Walter Davis's senior season (1976-77), he led the Heels in assists, steals and fouls, ranked second in field goal percentage, points and blocks, third in rebounds and assists, but failed to rank in free throw percentage. Mike O'Koren managed to rank in the top three of every major statistical category except for blocks during his sophomore (1977-78) and junior (1978-79) seasons, but dropped out of the top three in free throw percentage his senior season.
Minutes played and turnovers began to be tracked in the 1979-80 season. James Worthy made quite a splash as a post player in the 1981-82 season, doing as David Noel has done this season and still could do - ranked in the top three of every major category except for free throw percentage. He led the Tar Heels in points and turnovers, and ranked second in field goal percentage, rebounds, assists, and steals. Sam Perkins accomplished the same feat in 1982-83, except the one category he failed to rank in the top three in was assists instead of free throw percentage. In 1985, Brad Daugherty channeled Worthy when he ranked in the top three of every category except free throw percentage.
Three-point field goal percentage was not tracked consistently until the 1986-87 season, leaving performances like J.R. Reid in the 1986-87 season making the top three in every category except free throw and 3-point percentage and George Lynch doing the same in the 1991-92 season seem slightly less impressive (especially when David managed to get in on 3-point percentage). Rick Fox managed it in 1990-91, though, ranking in the top three in every category except field goal percentage.
Although I am admittedly a tad biased, I think it's important to mention some impressive statistical performances from seasons past, and one of those performers would be Dante Calabria. His junior year (1994-95), playing alongside the likes of Rasheed Wallace, Donald Williams and Jerry Stackhouse, he managed to crack the top three in all statistical categories except for points, fouls, minutes played and blocks. His senior year, he was still out of the top three in blocks and fouls, and fell out of the top three in field goal percentage and rebounds, but he was second place in a number of important categories, like assists, steals, and 3-point percentage. Besides, if you've watched ESPN Classic recently, you would see that Calabria's statistical contributions - like David's - have been of the intangible variety, as both tend to come up big in big moments.
One of David Noel's more popular comparisons is to Ademola Okulaja. His senior season, he ranked in the top three of every category except blocks and fouls, and led the Heels in 3-point percentage, points, rebounds, and steals.
More recent statistical champions include Joe Forte, who in his final season (2001) led the Heels in free throw percentage, points, steals, turnovers, and minutes played, and ranked in the top three in every other category except field goal percentage and fouls. Jason Capel led the 2002 Tar Heels in free throw percentage, points, rebounds, steals, and minutes played, ranked second in assists, turnovers and fouls, third in field goal percentage, and failed to crack the top three in just 3-point percentage and blocks.
As a freshman, Rashad McCants led the Heels in scoring, fouls, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage, ranked second in free throw percentage, rebounds and steals, and failed to make the top three in only assists and blocks (though he was fourth in both). His sophomore year, he ranked in the top three of every category except for fouls. Sean May's dominance was crucial in last year's championship run - and considering that the big man cracked the top three in every major statistical category except for 3-point percentage (even assists!), it's easy to see why.
One thing is clear - players like James Worthy, Sean May and George Lynch have led the Tar Heels to do great things. A top-three ranking in almost every statistical category combined with the leadership skills of a player like Noel gives the Tar Heels that much better of a chance for postseason success.
Adam Lucas is the publisher of Tar Heel Monthly and can be reached at alucas@tarheelmonthly.com. He is the coauthor of the official book of the 2005 championship season, Led By Their Dreams, and his book on Roy Williams's first season at Carolina, Going Home Again, is now available in bookstores. To subscribe to Tar Heel Monthly or learn more about Going Home Again, click here.
