University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag Feb. 6
February 6, 2007 | Men's Basketball
Feb. 6, 2007
A popular email this week has concerned this weekend's 1957 and 1982 reunion festivities. Here's a quick rundown on what to expect:
Naturally, you'll want to attend the 1957 Best Game Ever booksigning on Friday at 1 p.m. at Chapel Hill Sportswear. This is the last scheduled signing, and it's also your only chance to get your book signed by all four living starters from the '57 team. It should be a lot of fun.
The players will have to leave by around 2:30, because they're invited to practice that afternoon. The '57 and '82 teams are gathering separately on Friday night. On Saturday, watch the video boards during each timeout for retrospectives from a different 1957 or 1982 player or coach. Then, at halftime, it'll be one of the biggest star-gazing opportunities in Smith Center history, as all players (yes, the coaches are scheduled to be there too) are honored at center court. That evening, both teams will gather with the current team for a private banquet.
It should be a one-of-a-kind weekend in Chapel Hill and we hope Carolina fans will give every returning champion a tremendous ovation. There are only five living players who have had their jersey retired at Carolina; three of them (Michael Jordan, James Worthy, and Lennie Rosenbluth) will be together this weekend.
If you're looking to add a 1982 signature to your collection, go to the Barnes and Noble at Brier Creek Commons in Raleigh at 7 p.m. on Thursday. Jimmy Black will be on hand to sign his new book, "Tales from the Tar Heels."
If one must put a negative spin on all the blowouts our Heels are producing, it might be the lack of any close-game experience that would help this team come March. What if this team goes through the season without a reasonable number of tight-game situations? How will this young team respond when the tournaments come and they play that tough, close game?
I ask the question with at least one response in mind. With the emphasis our coach places on every single offensive play or defensive stance - going so far as to be visibly angry at this team when they play sloppily for even one possession, even in a 30-point blowout - these young Heels may already know the pressure associated with close games. When one play, one pass, one wrong decision could cost the game, maybe this team will respond favorably since they have played all year with the pressure already coming from our own bench. I don't mean to sound too confident, but it seems the competition and pressure from within might be greater than any pressure we experience from the opposing teams.
Jim
Stedman, NC
Needless to say, this email hit the inbox prior to Saturday's game against NC State. That was the first time this year the Tar Heels have had to manage a traditional end-of-game comeback situation--the game in Blacksburg being more of a helter-skelter frenzy.
Let's go back through the final two minutes:
1:45 remaining, State leads 77-75 with the ball. This one might have been the killer. The Tar Heels played 25 seconds of quality defense on this possession. Wes Miller was able to force the ball out of Engin Atsur's hands, and the ball ended up with Brandon Costner on the wing, 20 feet from the basket. On the previous possession, Carolina had forced State to go one-on-one and throw up a wild shot; it looked like they were about to do it again. State wanted to set a screen on the ball, and the Tar Heels defended it well. But Reyshawn Terry was called for a hand check on Costner, and the Wolfpack freshman hit two free throws. The shot clock was at 7 seconds when the foul was called and Costner had no passing outlets--he was going to have to jack up a running jumper.
1:17 remaining, Carolina trails 79-75 with the ball. Good, patient offense ending with a solid shot--Brandan Wright drops in a 10-footer. Hard to argue with this.
1:07 remaining, State leads 79-77 with the ball. Another killer, as a good possession's worth of defense is snuffed by a hand check on Wes Miller with 16 seconds on the shot clock. In some ways, this is good news, because Carolina and lightning-quick Ty Lawson will benefit with the new apparent ACC emphasis on hand check enforcement. Of course, that was small consolation on Saturday, and Atsur hit two free throws.
"We've got to guard people without getting our hands involved," Roy Williams said. "I've said that since day one."
47.4 seconds left, Carolina trails 81-77 with the ball. This possession looked a little frenzied. Gavin Grant played good defense on Wayne Ellington and prevented him from getting a good look at the basket. That left Ellington to drop it to Wright, whose leaner over Ben McCauley missed.
A couple of missed free throws gave the Tar Heels a sliver of light with 29.1 seconds remaining. The first set was for a 3-pointer by Ellington, which missed. After an offensive rebound by Wright, it might have been nice to see Carolina try to pick up a quick two--there were still 20 seconds left and State had three players on the floor (Grant, Courtney Fells, and McCauley) shooting less than 70 percent from the free throw line in ACC play. But Ellington fired up another trifecta. Lawson said he had no regrets about the last gasps.
"I think we got the shots we wanted at the end," he said. "They just didn't go down. We had a chance to win it."
Especially with a significant number of freshmen in the rotation, it's important for a team to experience some late-game trials at some point before March arrives. The Tar Heels simulate close and late situations virtually every day in practice. That helps young players understand exactly how much can be accomplished in a small amount of clock time. But Carolina's best teams have always grown from late-game experience.
For example, the 2005 team toughed out a win at Indiana, dropped a heartbreaker at Duke, and survived at Maryland...and then used what they learned to come back against Duke in the regular season finale and outlast Villanova and Wisconsin in the Syracuse regional. The 1998 team edged Purdue 73-69 in the finale of the Great Alaska Shootout, needed overtime to win at Georgia, won a double-overtime thriller at Georgia Tech, and then lost (another) heartbreaker at Duke in the regular season finale. That experience paid off in an overtime win over Maryland in the ACC semis and an overtime win over Charlotte in the NCAA second round. The 1993 team lost to Michigan in the Rainbow Classic title game, captured a 4-point decision at Seton Hall, made the great comeback against Florida State, and lost a tough one to Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament without Derrick Phelps. They showed significant late-game poise against Arkansas, Cincinnati, Kansas, and Michigan on the run to the NCAA title.
Two factors that have nothing to do with the actual game circumstances play an important role in close games: experience and depth. The Tar Heels have very little of the former and plenty of the latter. They'll benefit in the 39th and 40th minute of games because in almost all situations, they'll be fresher than the opponent. But they also need someone to step forward as the player who takes charge in those situations.
It's worth nothing that Wednesday's opponent, Duke, is in almost the reverse situation--the Blue Devils can't stop playing close games. Due partly to the slow tempo they prefer, Duke has already been in eight games that were in doubt in the closing minutes, including three of their past four.
Coach Williams loves to pound the ball inside, which anyone would with Hansbrough and Wright in the paint. Any way, this leads to what seems like a lot of trips to the free throw line for the Tar Heels. I was wondering what the average free throw attempts per game was thus far and how does it stack up against other Tar Heel teams of the past?
Josh Jarrett
Marion, NC
The Tar Heels currently average 25.2 trips to the free throw line per game. That would rank as the second-best figure this decade for a Carolina team--the 2005 national champions went to the line 27 times per game.
Somewhat surprisingly, though, that average wouldn't place this year's team in the top-15 all-time at Carolina. The 1956 team shot 37.5 free throw per game, the current Tar Heel record. That team is joined by the 1955 34.4) and 1957 (36.4) squads in the 30-plus free throw club. The reason? Superstar Lennie Rosenbluth averaged 10.7 free throw attempts per game during his three-year career. To put that into context, consider that Tyler Hansbrough--who is regularly mauled during games--has averaged 8.2 free throw attempts per game during his career.
Only one squad in the past 35 years has shot at least 30 free throws per game--the 1972 team averaged 30.4 per contest.
I noticed that our closest margin of victory (7 points) was against Winthrop on Nov 15. Which Carolina team has the highest average margin of victory for the season and what was their result? How does this team stack up?
Jamie Moore
Marietta, GA
The current team's average scoring margin is 22.0 points per game. There are four teams in the ACC era of Carolina basketball that averaged a scoring margin of at least 15.0. They are:
2005: 17.7
1993: 17.8
1986: 17.6
1972: 17.7
That represents two national champions, three Final Four teams, and one Sweet Sixteen team. The outlier would appear to be the 1986 squad--they finished 28-6, managed just third place in the ACC and aren't generally considered one of Carolina's very best teams. But that was also the last year before the 3-point shot was introduced nationwide in the college game, and the Tar Heels benefited from some tremendous nonconference blowouts--37 points over UCLA, 43 points over Iona, 43 points over Rutgers, 42 points over Ohio University, 44 points over Stanford, 53 points over The Citadel, 84 points over Manhattan, 52 points over Brown, and 45 points over Florida State. I can only imagine that the Apple IIe was humming in those days as the 1986 version of the Mailbag filled up with concerns about Carolina's nonconference schedule. Predictably, that team's margin of victory in ACC games went down to 5.9 points per game.
Carolina most recently led the league's scoring margin race in 2005. That's the only time in the last dozen seasons the Tar Heels have led that category, and that figure also led the nation. The all-time ACC best is Duke's 24.8 points per game advantage during the 1999 season.
As of the Miami game, Alex Stepheson is averaging .412 rebounds per minute played versus .284 for Hansbrough, .277 for Terry, .246 for Wright and a .194 for Thompson. How does Stepheson's rebounds per minute compare to other great rebounders in Tar Heel history?
Mark Hewett
Mountain Top, PA
Minutes weren't reliably tracked until the 1980s, so we'll have to tweak your question to compare Stepheson to the great Carolina rebounders since 1980. That leaves out great Tar Heel rebounders like Billy Cunningham (his 1,062 boards rank third all-time at Carolina), Rusty Clark (eighth on the Carolina career list, plus his 30-rebound performance against Maryland in 1968 remains the UNC single-game record), and Mitch Kupchak (one of just six Tar Heels with more than 1,000 rebounds).
Sam Perkins is the all-time Carolina rebounding leader. He grabbed 1,167 rebounds in 4,459 minutes--that's .261 rebounds per minute. George Lynch's figure was slightly higher (0.296 rebounds per minute), as was Antawn Jamison's (0.295 rebounds per minute). Brad Daugherty, the last of the six Tar Heels with at least 1,000 rebounds, checks in at .252 rebounds per minute. In case you're interested, the ACC's rebounding leader in the minutes per game era is Wake Forest's Tim Duncan--he averaged .349 rebounds per minute.
So what you've uncovered, Mark, is that Stepheson is a phenomenally productive rebounder. Of course, it's not as simple as assuming if Stepheson's minutes stayed the same his productivity wound remain constant--he'd play more minutes when he was tired, face better opposition more consistently, etc. But we're not just comparing him to a random sample--we're comparing him to some of the best rebounders in Tar Heel (and league) history. What makes him so productive? He's not an exceptionally high leaper, but he's very quick off the ground. He also has shown a knack for gauging the ball while it's in the air. That sounds elementary, but many players simply box out without regard for where the ball might carom. Stepheson, however, usually seems to have a feel for the flight of the ball. That enables him to get a half-step advantage on other players in search of the rebound.
And now, a quick public service announcement about an event that every Carolina fan should enjoy:
I was writing to tell alumni about how they can play basketball in Carmichael Auditorium, beat Duke, and help a great cause (as if beating Duke isn't incentive enough!) It's called the Duke-Carolina Student Basketball Marathon. Last year, twenty-four students, twelve from each school, broke the Guinness World Record for the world's longest basketball game by playing for 57 hours and 25 minutes. The event also raised $60,000 for Hoop Dreams, a charity who provide recreational opportunities and support to children with life-threatening illnesses. (Their core program is a weekly basketball clinic.)
The only bad thing about last year's marathon? Duke won, 3,688 to 3,444. It's not quite as bad as it sounds though--the 244 point margin is like a four point win when divided by the number of hours played. Nevertheless, this can't happen again and that's where alumni come in.
This year we're expanding the marathon to allow around one hundred alumni and faculty to join the students and play. The marathon will be 36-hours--though participants don't have to be there for the whole time, only the hour they are playing their Duke opponents--and will be in Carmichael Auditorium (and yes, we will be using the same baskets the women's team plays on).
The marathon is during Final Four weekend, March 30-April 1. Accordingly, we have rented a huge 900-foot screen just in case Carolina is in...well, you know. There will also be musical and other performances, a silent auction, and we are even going to break a new Guinness World Record by having over one thousand people simultaneously dribbling basketballs. It should be a really fun event to come to, even if you don't want to play! You can also get involved by volunteering or donating. (All proceeds go to Hoop Dreams and all donations are tax-deductible).
Please visit our website for information on playing, volunteer, or donating and contact me with any questions.
David Suitts
UNC 09
Brownlow's Down Low
Listening to sports-talk radio, it seems that MOST people on the show (the "so called" experts), as well as those that call-in, seem to think that Duke "OWNS" UNC in men's basketball this century. I realize that we had a few years when we weren't extremely strong and Duke was, but it seems to me that this view-point is a wee bit strong given the history of these two rivals.
My question is: What is the breakdown of the UNC/Duke basketball outcomes over the history of the rivalry? Can you break this down into decades, the 50s, 60s, 70s, etc...
Thomas Morris
Hillsborough, NC
Lauren writes:
Carolina is 125-96 against Duke all-time with an overall winning percentage of .566. Carolina's most dominant decade (best winning percentage) was the 1920s, when it won 18 games and lost just four (.818). Carolina had the most wins in the 1970s, when the Tar Heels went 23-8. Dean Smith is 59-35 (.628) against Duke, and after starting out 8-12 in the 1960s, he went 51-23 (.689) the next three decades. Carolina has had a winning percentage over .500 in every decade but three - the 1930s (.455), the 1960s (.462) and this one. So far in the 2000's, Carolina is 4-13 against Duke (.235).Here is how the decades break down:
18-4 - 1920's (.818)
10-12 - 1930's (.455)
14-12 - 1940's (.538)
14-14 - 1950's (.500)
12-14 - 1960's (.462)
23-8 - 1970's (.742)
16-9 - 1980's (.640)
14-10 - 1990's (.583)
4-13 - 2000's (.235)
If Duke wins just two more games this decade, it will amount to the most wins Duke has had against Carolina in any decade. One more win would tie the highest number of wins in a decade, 14. Duke has notched 14 wins against Carolina twice, in the 1950s and the 1960s. Carolina went 14-14 and 12-14 respectively against Duke in those two decades. Duke's best winning percentage against Carolina by far has been in this decade (.765). The previous high winning percentage for the Blue Devils was .545 in the 1930s. Duke has had a winning percentage of .500 or higher in just two decades so far, not including this one.
The reason for the perception that Duke "owns" Carolina lately is largely because of what has happened since 1998. Since then, here's now it breaks down:
Bill Guthridge (1998-00): 2-6 (.250)
Matt Doherty (2001-03): 2-7 (.222)
Roy Williams (2004-present): 2-4 (.333)
Interestingly enough, the coach at Duke with the best winning percentage against Carolina is the namesake of its arena, Eddie Cameron. From 1929-1942, Cameron had a 19-14 record (.576) against Carolina. Only three Duke coaches are over .500 against Carolina. Harold Bradley (1951-59) went 13-12; Vic Bubas (1960-69) was 14-12; Mike Krzyzewski (1981-present) is 31-30 so far.
The longest win streak for either team was Carolina's 16-game winning streak from February 23, 1921 until the win on February 11, 1928. Duke's longest win streak is eight in a row, from February 23, 1951 until February 20, 1954.
Another e-mailer (Lee Gilliam from Zebulon, NC) asked about Les Robinson, having heard that he had a winning record against Coach Smith during his tenure at NC State from 1990-96. Robinson was 6-8 against Carolina (.429) in that time span.
Adam Lucas's third book on Carolina basketball, The Best Game Ever, chronicles the 1957 national championship season and is available now. His previous books include Going Home Again, focusing on Roy Williams's return to Carolina, and Led By Their Dreams, a collaboration with Steve Kirschner and Matt Bowers on the 2005 championship team.To submit a Mailbag question, click here.
