University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag
January 8, 2008 | Men's Basketball
Jan. 8, 2008
By Adam Lucas
A few weeks ago, we had a question about the most disappointing Carolina losses. I offered my opinions--now it's your turn.
My vote DEFINITELY goes with the 1998 game vs. Utah. That team is still my pick for the best UNC team I've seen. I even rank them over the 2005 squad that won the national championship, but since most people feel that a championship is what defines players and teams in this generation, most would probably disagree. I also vote that as the most disappointing loss...even more disappointing than the Georgetown loss last season.
Jay Kaiser
Charlottesville, VA
The 1987 team losing to Syracuse was one of the most disappointing losses I can ever remember, and I was only 8. Rony Seikaly was my most hated player for probably about 15 years. In fact, my parents went to the Northeast my senior year in college, and as a joke, my dad got me a Rony Seikaly basketball card at a card show...I told him I hoped he'd gotten it for free because if he paid anything for it, he got ripped off.
Joey Gleason `01
Regarding the question this week about the best Carolina teams to never win a championship--why doesn't anyone ever include the 1997 team? I guess it depends on your definition of what makes a team "greatest," but I've always thought that at the end of the season, the 1997 team would have handed the 1998 team a real beat down.
The 1997 team's record doesn't do it justice because, early in the season, they were searching for the right solution at point guard. That hole in the rotation led to a terrible January that included 5 losses while Ed Cota (a freshman) adjusted to playing the college game. But once he got up to speed and started earning more minutes, UNC ripped off a perfect February, beat Wake Forest and Tim Duncan twice, Duke once, won the ACC tournament, and got a number-one seed in the NCAA tournament.
Everyone also seems to forget the vastly under-appreciated Serge Zwikker, who chipped in many, many fine defensive games in addtion to his midrange baseline jumper that opened the lane, his regular 10-15 points, and 8 or 9 rebounds (didn't he work his way up to being a first-round NBA draft pick?). As for the 1998 team--the "six starters" rotation never seemed to work very well to me, they needed overtime for 4 of their wins, they suffered a bad loss to State late in the season (and at home!), and they played against a league schedule that I would argue was less competitive than the previous year. To me, losing to Arizona and Miles Simon in 1997 was way more disappointing and frustrating than losing to Utah in 1998. Maybe I'm the only one.
Miles Travis
Durham, NC
Well I go back to 1962 when at age of 10 I became a Carolina fan and in my opinion the best UNC team not to win the national championship would be:
- the 1977 team - even with all the injuries, we almost and should have beaten Al McGuire's team. Sweet "D", Phil Ford and Kupchak, with LaGarde in supporting role were pretty awesome. Injuries were just too much to overcome. Truly the most heartbreaking loss; remember it was the 20th anniversary of 1957 National Championship and everyone's hopes were sky-high.
- also, everyone should remember the 1972 team with McAdoo and Bobby Jones was pretty good too and but for that 4 point loss to FLA State in the Semis, I thought we really had a shot at UCLA that year...instead State got them 2 years later. Put 72 at #4
- But I guess I would have to agree the 1984 team would be the second best and the 1981 team (the loss to Indiana was a killer) would be 3rd.
John F. Carter, III
Wilmington, North Carolina
I'd rather think about the best surprising teams i.e. 1990 team beating #1 Oklahoma (Rick Fox shot), 1991 team over Temple losing to Kansas in FF, 2000 FF team as a #8 seed, and the 2006 team with no expectations.
Thaddeus M. Fine
Louisville, KY
I would too, Thad. So let's do that. When you actually start thinking about "surprising" Carolina teams you start to realize how much success the Tar Heels have had. There are very few years when the Tar Heels have spent any time as an underdog in the postseason.
For sheer one-game enjoyment, I'd offer two prime contenders: the 1990 second-round defeat of Oklahoma and the 1995 regional final defeat of Kentucky. In those days, Oklahoma and head coach Billy Tubbs were everything that Carolina was not. They were flashy, they were loud, and they were cocky--one of their trademarks was for their bench players to cross their legs in some sort of rhythmic step show after each made free throw. I vividly remember watching this game in the den with my dad and us going crazy when Rick Fox banked in his game-winner. I also remember CBS throwing it back to the studio and the host saying, "Carolina has beaten the top seed in the region," and my dad yelling at the TV, "Not just the number one seed in the region--the number one team in the country!" This game gets bonus points because it came in the middle of an unbelievable string of 13 straight Sweet 16 appearances. After the win over the Sooners, there was a real sense nationally that maybe Carolina would always be in the Sweet 16.
My other contender in this category would be the win over Kentucky in Birmingham, although that team probably had too much talent to be a real shocker. This was one of those games you probably had a good feeling about as a Carolina fan. Lots of national attention for the opponent, a "hot" coach on the other sideline opposing Dean Smith, and an opponent that loved the outside shot. Sprinkle in some overconfidence for the Wildcats and it was the perfect Carolina storm.
You have to include 1997 on this list, too. Sure, we look back in hindsight and see how much talent they had, but remember there was some unrest in Chapel Hill when they started 0-3 in the ACC and needed a miracle comeback to beat NC State and avoid 0-4. Even after that comeback, the Tar Heels were 3-5 on their first pass through the ACC. At that point, I'm not sure anyone would have told you a 16-game winning streak, ACC Tournament championship, and Final Four appearance were on the horizon. I'd also add the entire 2005-06 season to this category, as that team had nonexistent expectations but put together several thrilling wins before running out of gas in the NCAA Tournament.
The overall winner here, however, must be the 2000 team. They looked feeble in losing to Wake Forest in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and there was some national discussion about whether they could survive Missouri in the NCAA first round. As a Carolina fan, though, you had to feel good about a second-round matchup with top seed Stanford--a team against which Carolina has traditionally had good success. The Tar Heels also defeated fast-talking Tennessee (a team that bore some resemblance to that Oklahoma team of 1990) and upstart Tulsa on the way to the Final Four.
Now, what are your favorite Carolina surprises? Let us know.
I just read where Tyler Hansbrough won ACC Player of the Week for the third time this season, and the fourth time in his career. I find that statistic astonishing, given Tyler's repeated punishment of the opposition. He goes after points like the paparazzi goes after Britney Spears. Please tell me that article was a misprint.
How about a rundown of Carolina's leading scorers versus the number of times they've been voted as ACC Player of the week? Go back in history as far as you'd like, or as far as your spare time will allow.
Tom Tester
Kernersville, NC
I'll be honest. When we received this email, my first thought was, "I can't believe we've been running a story with that kind of misprint on TarHeelBlue.com and Tom is the only one who caught it." Believe it or not, though, Hansbrough really had won the award just once in his Carolina career prior to this season. He didn't win it at all last year, as D.J. Strawberry--who didn't make first-team All-ACC--won it three times, Zabian Dowdell twice, and a series of other players (including Josh McRoberts, Gavin Grant, Mike Jones, and Jack McClinton) won it once.
That's especially surprising when you consider that the most recent Carolina player to put up Hansbrough-type numbers, Antawn Jamison, won the award 12 times during his three-year career. Jamison won ACC POW five times in his first two seasons, and that was in an ACC that included Tim Duncan, Keith Booth, Greg Buckner, and Matt Harpring (when Jamison was a freshman). Jamison's 12 wins, by the way, are tied for the ACC all-time lead with J.J. Redick. Jamison also holds the single-season record, as he won it seven times as a junior. As a program, Carolina has won the award 102 times (Wayne Ellington has won it twice this year, including this week), ahead of Duke's 97. The Tar Heels have been shut out entirely of POW honors in just two seasons--1989-90 and 2001-02.
By the way, if you're wondering how Player of the Week is selected, each school has the opportunity to nominate a candidate. Then a panel of roughly a half-dozen sportswriters (with geographic representation from all corners of the ACC) covering the ACC votes to determine the winner.
There are even more POW stats in this week's Tuesday Talking Points. By the way, I'm pointing to Aaron Dunham for the assist on one of those Talking Points.
I know that as we get closer to tournament time, sportscasters are going to start using the RPI, in addition to the polls, to measure the strength of the teams headed to the NCAA tournament. Can you please explain just what the RPI is? How is it possible that this week's RPI includes only two ACC teams in the top 25, and how is it possible that St. Mary's has a higher RPI ranking than the number one team in the country, our Tar Heels?
Gene Brandt
River Forest, Illinois
You're right, Gene, this is the time of year when the RPI starts to get more attention. For years, the RPI formula was a closely guarded secret, which created a bit of a cottage industry among statisticians who tried to replicate the formula. Last year, with very little fanfare (considering how often it's talked about), the NCAA released its official RPI rankings every week beginning in late January. They'll do the same thing this year. Despite the official publication, my favorite site for all data RPI-related has always been Jerry Palm's excellent work at CollegeRPI.com.
Carolina fans are accustomed to seeing the Tar Heels--and other ACC teams--dot the upper reaches of the RPI. The Tar Heels have already climbed to second, and by March, they'll be joined by several other league squads. That's because the RPI is intended to measure strength of schedule (Clemson's RPI actually went up one spot after losing to Carolina on Sunday) and how a team does against that schedule. Margin of victory doesn't matter, but game site now does, because in 2005 the winning percentage formula was tweaked to give greater weight to road wins (road wins now count 1.4 for RPI purposes, while home wins count 0.6). To figure out how many wins Carolina has for RPI purposes, follow this formula: 1.4 times road wins plus 0.6 times home wins plus the number of neutral site wins.
If your eyes are glazing over, let's plug in some actual numbers. The Tar Heels have won seven games at the Smith Center, and 7 times 0.6 is 4.2. They've got two wins at a neutral site (Las Vegas). And they have six road wins--six times 1.4 is 8.4. So add 4.2, 2, and 7, and Carolina has 14.6 RPI wins.
But that doesn't match Palm's figure of 14.2 wins. That's because he appears to be counting the Davidson game as a neutral site game. But according to this story (written by Palm), the new standard for determining the home team is game management. The rule says if a team, "rents the facility, arranges for officials, controls the tickets and is responsible for game operations, it is the home team regardless of the opponent." Davidson fulfilled those rules in the season opener, therefore it should be a home game for the Wildcats. It will be interesting to see how those rules impact other schools that like to schedule "neutral" games but still retain much of the game management.
That seems pretty easy, but it's also not the entire RPI formula. The basic calculations are 25% team winning percentage, 50% opponents' average winning percentage, and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage. That's why the RPI can look a little wacky early in the season. ACC teams, in general, are playing less formidable teams than they'll play in league play, while some mid-majors are stocking up on tough opponents to counterbalance their weaker league slate. St. Mary's currently has an opponents' winning percentage of .615; that's higher than all but one team in the current RPI top 10.
By the way, for all the complaints about Carolina's nonconference schedule, the Tar Heels have played four (winning all four) non-league games against the current RPI top 50. The win-loss figures against top-50 teams for other ACC schools: Boston College (1-3), Wake Forest (0-1), Duke (2-1), Clemson (0-1), FSU (0-2), Miami (1-0), Virginia (1-2), NC State (0-1), Maryland (0-2), Virginia Tech (0-2), Georgia Tech (1-3).
Brownlow's Down Low
Obviously, rebounding margin matters because Carolina has always been a good rebounding team, but is rebounding margin a clear cut indicator of success, and how does this team stack up against other great Carolina squads?
Rick Wooten
Sparta, NC
Lauren writes:
Three of Carolina's four national championship teams rank inside the top 10 in rebounding margin. The 1957 team is No. 1, averaging 10.8 more rebounds per game than its opponents (46.7 to 35.9). The 1993 team ranks fourth, averaging 41.1 rebounds to 32.2 allowed (+8.9). The 2005 team comes in eighth at +7.5 (40.5 rebounds to 33.0 allowed).Of the top 20 teams in rebounding margin, 11 reached the Final Four or won the NIT title. As for the other nine that did not reach the Final Four, at least four of those teams were among some of Carolina's best to never get there. The 2007 team was not far away, and they rank fifth in rebounding margin (+8.5). The 1994 team is sixth at +8.4. The 1987 team went undefeated in ACC play and is 13th in rebounding margin (+5.6). The 1961 team had a 19-4 record but was barred from postseason play. That team ranks second overall in rebounding margin at +9.8, featuring the great rebounder Doug Moe, who had the fourth-highest rebounding average in Carolina history that season (14.0).
There are some notable exceptions, though. There are five teams that certainly don't rank among Carolina's best in terms of record. But three of the six have one thing in common - Carolina reached the Final Four the next season. The 1956 team was just one year away from the title and ranks 19th at +5.0. The 1996 team went 21-11 but it ranks 12th at +6.2. Carolina reached the Final Four in each of the next two seasons. The 1999 team had a 24-10 record and was upset in the NCAA Tournament by Weber State, but it ranks 17th at +5.3. That team reached the Final Four in 2000. The 2006 team, which went 23-8 is seventh at +8.1. It was one shot away from being the fourth team that reached the Final Four the next year (2007). The other exception is the 1973 team, which also went 23-8. That team ranks 18th at +5.1.
Carolina has had negative rebounding margins in five seasons since 1954. Those five teams had a combined record of 61-67, including the 2002 team that went 8-20 and the 2003 team that went 19-16. The 1955 team (10-11), the 1962 team (8-9) and the 1966 team (16-11) were the other three teams.
Carolina has tracked offensive and defensive rebounds since 1996. Carolina's four Final Four teams since then all rank in the top five in defensive rebounding margin. The 1998 team leads the way at +8.4; the 1997 team is second at +7.0. The 2000 team is fourth at +6.2 and the 2005 team is just behind it at +6.1. Carolina's two teams with the worst records since 1996 - the 2002 and 2003 teams - are second to last and last, respectively. The 2003 team had a -2.4 margin in defensive rebounds.
There is no correlation, not surprisingly, between offensive rebounding margin and winning - unless, of course, that margin is over -2.0. Carolina has had six seasons since 1996 that it lost 10 or more games. Of those, four averaged a -2.0 margin or higher in offensive rebounding margin (2000, 2002, 2003 and 1999). The 1999 team's margin was the worst at -2.3. The 2003 team allowed -2.1 and both the 2000 and 2002 teams allowed -2.0.
This season's team is doing unprecedented things with rebounding. If the margin stood - +11.6 - it would be Carolina's best ever. Carolina is averaging a +4.1 margin on the offensive glass, best since it was tracked in 1996, and a +7.5 margin on the defensive boards. Obviously, it's not likely these numbers will hold up as Carolina gets into ACC play. But it's still very impressive and it's a big part of the reason that this team is 15-0.
Adam Lucas most recently collaborated on a behind-the-scenes look at Carolina Basketball with Wes Miller. The Road To Blue Heaven is available now. Lucas's other books on Carolina basketball include The Best Game Ever, which chronicles the 1957 national championship season, Going Home Again, which focuses on Roy Williams's return to Carolina, and Led By Their Dreams, a collaboration with Steve Kirschner and Matt Bowers on the 2005 championship team.
