University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag
February 26, 2008 | Men's Basketball
Feb. 26, 2008
By Adam Lucas
We're starting with something a little different today. Laura Case, a current student at UNC, has a 9-year-old brother named Weston who is practicing for the North Carolina Writing Test. As part of that practice, Weston's class has to take practice tests. His latest one follows, and I'm guessing that a lot of readers (including me) probably wrote something similar in their elementary school days.
One Saturday, I picked up the mail. There was a small package for me. My heart pounded like a large drum. I opened it. It was an ACC Championship game ticket. Before I knew it, I was playing in the game for North Carolina against Duke. What a rivalry!
Wayne Ellington passed me the ball. I ran down court and did a layup. The crowd went wild. Greg Paulus for Duke was called for a charge! I took he ball out and passed it to Marcus Ginyard. He took off like a rocket down the court. He shot a three-pointer. He kissed it off the glass of the backboard. The crowd was on their feet as the clock reached the 3-minute mark. It was Duke's ball and the score was all knotted up at 80. I was huffing and puffing as I ran down the court. As the time passed, neither team scored.
Coach called a timeout. He whispered something to the team, but I did not hear what he told us. There was 20 seconds left. This is what it's all about. It was North Carolina's ball. Ty Lawson ran in circles until there was 5 seconds left. Then he passed the ball to me. 5, 4, 3, 2... Coach told me to shoot. I launched the ball to the basket. Swish! Everybody was jumping now!
Bang! Suddenly, I was in my front yard again. I will never forget the ACC championship game.
If my calculations are right, Weston will be looking for a job here at TarHeelBlue.com around 2021. Hopefully, he'll still let me write the occasional story for him once he takes over here.
Considering that several Carolina teams have staged fantastic in-game comebacks throughout the years, where does the win against Clemson rank, taking into consideration the adversity the team was facing (Lawson out, Ginyard hobbled, and lingering effects from the Duke loss)? Also how have past teams fared in their next game following those great comebacks?
John Hines
Class of `70
I'm not going to rank the comebacks, but I'd agree with John that the win over Clemson--considering the circumstances--belongs among the all-timers. Erasing an 11-point deficit in the final three minutes was impressive enough. Erasing that deficit without Lawson or Ginyard puts is, well, it's just Carolina Basketball.
Below are ten of the greatest comebacks in school history. I'm not saying these are the best ten, but they're definitely ten that we could all agree were significant. Following each game, you'll find Carolina's record in the very next game, plus the record in the next five games.
3/6/05: UNC 75, Duke 73 (the Marvin Williams tip-in). Carolina beat Clemson in the next game and went 7-1 on the way to the national title.
1/15/97: UNC 59, State 56 (overcome 56-47 deficit with 2:00 left). Carolina beat Georgia Tech in the next game and went 3-2 over the next five games--of course, after that 3-2 stretch the Tar Heels reeled off 16 straight wins on the way to the Final Four.
1/28/95: UNC 62, Wake 61 (overcame 53-43 deficit with 6:39 left). Carolina beat Duke in the next game (the classic 102-100 double-OT game) and went 4-1 over the next five games.
1/27/93: UNC 82, FSU 77 (overcame 73-54 deficit with 8:50 left). Carolina lost the next two games (at Wake and at Duke) and went 3-2 in the five games after FSU.
2/8/92: UNC 80, Wake 78 (overcame 20 points deficit with 14:49 left). Carolina won the next game at Clemson and then lost four in a row.
11/24/89: UNC 80, James Madison 79 (overcame 79-70 deficit with under 1:00 left). Carolina won the next game against Villanova and went 3-2 over the subsequent five.
11/21/87: UNC 96, Syracuse 93 in OT (overcame 14-point deficit with 14:39 left). Carolina won the next game against USC and went 4-1 in the next five games.
1/9/85: UNC 75, Maryland 74 (overcame 72-69 deficit, plus Maryland had the ball, with 23 seconds left). Carolina won the next game against Virginia and went 3-2 over the next five games.
2/10/83: UNC 64, Virginia 63 (overcame 10-point deficit in final 4:12). Carolina won the next three games and posted a 2-3 record in the next five after the comeback. 27-18
3/2/74: UNC 96, Duke 92 (8 points in 17 seconds, enough said). Carolina won the next game, an ACC Tournament opener against Wake, but then dropped the next two, including the NIT opener against Purdue.
Cumulative:
Next game post-comeback: 9-1
Next five post-comeback: 28-20
I have a question about the ACC tiebreaker now that we are in the unbalanced schedule. Consider the following scenario:
Carolina and Duke finish tied for the regular season title. Clemson finishes solo third.
My question is does UNC win the tiebreaker (and get the #1 tourney seed) because they went 2-0 vs Clemson and Duke went 1-0, or would it go to the next tiebreaker because both teams had the same winning percentage against Clemson?
Brian Meacham
That's right, folks, it's time for the annual column on ACC Tournament tiebreaker scenarios (alternate name: If This Had Been a Question on the SAT, I Wouldn't Have Been a Partial Qualifier). One of the many problems with the current ACC basketball schedule is the fact that it makes tiebreakers for the ACC Tournament very complicated.
Here's the key to remember: the ACC bases all tiebreakers on winning percentage, not the quantity of wins. So in ACC tiebreaker-land, 2-0 is the same as 1-0. If two teams are tied in the final league standings, here's how you break the tie (fresh out of the 2008 ACC media guide):
1. Head-to-head records. If the teams in question split 1-1, then go to #2.
2. Begin at the top of the ACC standings and compare head-to-head records against the top teams and work down the standings until a tie is broken. In other words, if Carolina and Duke finish tied at the top, compare their records against the third-place team. This is where it's advantageous to understand the tiebreaker rules. In case of a tie, Carolina fans should want Wake Forest or Miami to finish higher than Maryland in the league race. Carolina lost its only game against Maryland (Duke went undefeated against the Terps) while Duke lost to Wake (Carolina beat the Deacons in the only meeting) and Miami (Carolina also won the only meeting against the Hurricanes).
But wait, there's more. The middle of the league is currently a jumbled mess. If, while using tiebreaker #2, you arrive at a group of tied teams, you compare the records against the entire group. So let's say Wake and Maryland finish tied at 8-8 (I don't even know if that's mathematically possible, I'm just throwing it out there). If Carolina and Duke are trying to break a tie, you compare their records against both Wake and Maryland together--Carolina would be 1-1, Duke would be 2-1 and therefore win the tiebreaker.
Sound complicated? It is. But the good news is that the scenario for Carolina is actually as simple as possible: win out, get the top seed. The bad news? The scenario is the exact same for Duke.
With all of this year's injuries, it got me thinking about how the Heels have responded to key injuries. Is there any significant statistical info,(W/L, offensive production, etc) to show how the Heels have covered for key injuries?
Allen Adeimy
Glenville, WV
Responding to key injuries is kind of an open-ended question, but I thought this might be a good chance to look into the 1984 Kenny Smith injury, because it seems to have the most relevance to the current Ty Lawson situation.
Some background for those of you who don't remember: the 1984 Tar Heels were a juggernaut. They won their first 17 games by an average of 17.4 points per game. But in the 17th game, something happened--LSU's John Tudor committed a vicious breakaway foul on starting point guard Kenny Smith. Smith, a freshman, was the perfect pilot for a team that also included Brad Daugherty, Michael Jordan, Sam Perkins, and Matt Doherty. Smith suffered a broken wrist because of the foul and missed the next eight games (counting the FSU game, Lawson has currently missed seven games).
The Tar Heels didn't exactly struggle without Smith; they still won seven of the eight games he missed, with the only blemish a one-point loss at Arkansas. Sophomore Steve Hale stepped into the starting point guard role and handed out 50 assists in Smith's absence (6.25 per game; Thomas has 46 over seven games, or 6.57 per game).
But when Kenny Smith returned in the penultimate regular season game against Georgia Tech--and Dean Smith has gone on record as saying he probably brought his point guard back too early--the Carolina offense slowed down. A team that had been averaging 80.8 points per game through the first 25 contests averaged just 77.2 points over the final six games, and that included a double-overtime contest against Duke (in regulation, Carolina averaged 73.3 points per game after Smith's return). That's a drop of almost 10 percent.
In those six games after Smith's return, the Tar Heels shot 50.4 percent from the field. Pretty good, right? Yes, except that this was a team that shot 54.3% from the field for the entire season. Meanwhile, opponents made 47.7% of their field goals after making just 45 percent for the entire season. Hale was less efficient after returning to a reserve role, and his 3.33 A:TO ratio in Smith's absence dipped to 1.72 after Smith's return.
What does it all mean? That it's not always easy to plug a player back into a team playing well. The Tar Heels got just two regular season games and two ACC Tournament games with Smith back in the rotation before jumping into NCAA play--and the field was smaller in those days, so the team didn't get a potentially easy first-round warmup opportunity. It's also worth noting that from Smith's return to the end of the 1984 season against Indiana was just 22 days. That's almost exactly the same amount of time between now and the end of the ACC Tournament, which means this year's squad will have much more time to blend Lawson.
Roy Williams mentioned something similar on his radio show Monday night, as he first pointed out that Smith was playing with a cast that was slowly being removed. The head coach then compared Lawson's absence to the Rashad McCants illness of 2005. As Tar Heel fans remember, McCants missed four games and then tried to return in the ACC Tournament, where Carolina did not play very well. But after they were able to practice with him for a full week before the NCAA Tournament, the old chemistry returned and the quality of play improved dramatically.
Brownlow's Down Low
Saturday's blowout win versus Virginia Tech got me to thinking - what is UNC's biggest turnaround from one year to the next against the same opponent. I would think the 40 point (-1 in 2007 and +39 in 2008) differential versus VT would rank very high.
Craig
Concord, NC
Lauren writes: Actually, counting in the fact that Virginia Tech also beat Carolina 94-88 in Blacksburg, the total turnaround was from -7 points last year to +39 points this season, or a 46-point turnaround. But since 1958, the biggest turnaround total from one season series to the next season series was against NC State between 1992 and 1993. In the 1991-92 season, Carolina lost by 11 and by five points to NC State (-16). The next season, Carolina defeated NC State by 33 points in one game and 46 in the next, for a margin of +79 in that season and making up 16 points from 1992, or a 95-point swing.
The 1956 team lost by 22 points and then six points in its two meetings with NC State. Then in 1957, Carolina beat NC State by 26 points and 29 points, for a total margin of 55 points. So Carolina made up the -28 point margin in 1956 and then added 55 points for a turnaround of 83 points, the second-highest turnaround. In 1964, Carolina lost to Duke by a combined 71 points in three meetings (20, 16 and 35) and then beat Duke by a combined eight-point margin in both 1975 meetings. That turnaround of 79 points is third-highest.
The biggest turnaround in this decade was against Clemson in 2005. The 2004 team had lost a game by nine at Clemson and won by 16 for a total margin of +7. Carolina beat Clemson by a total of 58 points in 2005 for a 51-point swing, 12th-highest. The 2005 team also had a 41-point turnaround against Virginia and a 31-point swing against Maryland.
The 1993 team had six turnarounds of 30 points or more against its 1992 opponents, including the 95-point NC State swing. The 1993 team also had a 60-point swing against Maryland (sixth-highest), beating Maryland by 20 points and losing by two points in 1992 and then beating Maryland by a combined 78 points in 1993. Carolina beat Virginia by a combined 60 points in 1993 after the margin being only +8 in 1992; that 52-point turnaround is 11th highest. Carolina lost to Notre Dame by 12 in 1992 and beat the Irish by 29 in 1993, a 41-point swing. Carolina lost by a combined 22 points to Florida State in 1992 and beat the Seminoles by 15 combined points in 1993 (37-point turnaround). Carolina lost to Duke by a combined 30 points in 1992 and the margin was even in 1993 after losing one game by 14 and beating Duke by 14.
The Virginia Tech turnaround is the eighteenth-highest and the biggest swing since the 51-point turnaround against Clemson. The 2007 team was also able to get some revenge, turning a -1 point margin in two games against Miami in 2006 (an 11-point loss and a 10-point win) into a 42-point swing with a 41-point win in the Smith Center in 2007. Carolina also got some revenge on Boston College, a team that had beaten the Tar Heels by seven and three points in 2006 (-10). Carolina beat the Eagles by five and 15 points, for a total swing of 30 points. Other big turnaround in this decade include 48 points against Duke between 2002 to 2003 and 48 points against Maryland from 2003 to 2004.
One of the more memorable turnarounds includes a 35-point swing against Connecticut from 2002 to 2003. The 2002 Carolina team lost to Connecticut by 32 points. Then the 2003 team pulled off a memorable upset victory in the Smith Center, winning by three points to mark a 35-point turnaround.
Adam Lucas most recently collaborated on a behind-the-scenes look at Carolina Basketball with Wes Miller. The Road To Blue Heaven is available now. Lucas's other books on Carolina basketball include The Best Game Ever, which chronicles the 1957 national championship season, Going Home Again, which focuses on Roy Williams's return to Carolina, and Led By Their Dreams, a collaboration with Steve Kirschner and Matt Bowers on the 2005 championship team.
