University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag
January 20, 2009 | Men's Basketball, Featured Writers, Adam Lucas
Jan. 20, 2009
By Adam Lucas
A quick update before we get started--Carolina's JV team has perhaps its biggest test of the season tomorrow night before the Clemson game, as they'll host Fork Union. The C.B. McGrath-directed squad put a 101-22 whipping on Methodist on Saturday. For more information on the JV program, click here.
Now on to the questions...
Ed Davis has already proven to be a very good shot blocker and an excellent rebounder, given his youth and inexperience. But sometimes Davis has gone up to block shots he has no chance of blocking (maybe doing so to simply alter the shot?). This has left him out of position, unable to box out, leaving opposing players free to crash the offensive boards, leading to offensive rebounds and second chance points for the opposition. Is this something the coaching staff addresses with shot blockers or is learning when it is best to contest a shot or not something that a player develops more so on his own over time?
Paul Burke
UNC Senior
Chapel Hill
This question is here mostly just to brag on our readers. This is an astute question, and also one that might shed a little light on the current Tar Heel rotation.
First, the good. Davis has been terrific as a freshman. Nationally, he's probably not getting enough attention. He's still tied for the team lead in rebounding at 7.8 boards per game despite playing significantly less minutes than Tyler Hansbrough, with whom he shares the lead. Davis's rebounds-per-minute compare favorably with some of Carolina's all-time best rebounders, including Antawn Jamison and Sam Perkins. That's rare company for a freshman. He's also a legitimate post defensive threat, and his 1.9 blocks per game ranks third in the conference. Even when he doesn't block a shot, his mere presence in the paint tends to worry opposing guards, which helps curtail some of the dribble penetration that has occasionally been a problem this season. On offense, Davis is a surprisingly adept passer who looks comfortable throwing the tricky high-low pass and has an awareness that belies his youth.
Well, then it's obvious, right? Put Davis in the starting lineup and watch opponents' field goal percentage plummet. But Paul is right. Davis isn't always infallible when it comes to selecting which shots to contest, which can create offensive rebounds. In man-to-man post defense, he doesn't yet have the strength to consistently hold off some of the league's bigger post players, an area where Deon Thompson has improved markedly since his arrival at Carolina. Speaking of Thompson, his offensive game is more polished than Davis--although Thompson has struggled on offense lately, hitting just 6 of his last 22 field goal attempts (27.2%)--and as you'd expect from a player with two extra years of experience, he's a more effective and confident screener. As Rams Club members who receive Tar Heels Today already know, Thompson has won three of the last four coaches' awards for screens.
There's also the question of whether Davis's conditioning--remember, he battled a knee injury in the preseason--is ready for him to play even more minutes. He's already averaging nearly 20 minutes per game, a figure that puts him roughly in line with Danny Green in 2008 (22.3 minutes/game) and Marvin Williams in 2005 (22.2 minutes/game) as Tar Heel super-subs. Tyler Zeller's injury has created valuable on-the-job learning experience for Davis, who is probably playing a bigger role than the coaching staff might have expected last summer.
I realize with the unbalanced schedule we now have in the ACC it is impossible to make everything equal, but it seems to me that for the last several years every time we have played Wake once during the season it has been on their court. What is the home and away statistics for single contests and does the league attempt to even out home and away over the years.
John Ingley
end, Oregon
We'll get to John's question, but I'd also like to use this topic to compliment ESPN's Gameday crew on some of their comments during Saturday's broadcast from Chapel Hill. First, the show itself is terrific. You know why? Because it's smart. With Hubert Davis and Jay Bilas, you've got two intelligent analysts who actually make cogent points instead of resorting to shouting at each other.
The group eventually began a discussion of the best conference in the country. Davis made the salient point--and later had a great line when he said, "If you go undefeated in college basketball, you win the championship. If you go undefeated in college football, you might not even be in the championship game."--that the Big East isn't really a conference, it's just a group of schools playing under the same banner. Now, I'm not saying this just because it was fun to shout, "Huuuuu!" when he made another three-pointer or because he's a former Tar Heel or even because he's a really nice guy, but that's a very good point. The Big East has 16 schools. Can you name even 10 of them? Sixteen schools isn't a conference, it's a regional. Would you be surprised if I told you that Notre Dame against South Florida is a conference game? I had no idea.
The current trend is to proclaim the Big East the best league in the country "from top to bottom." Well, of course it is. It's got 16 schools and those schools were picked based almost entirely on athletic achievements. If the ACC could go find four more schools and pick them exclusively based on basketball success, we'd have a fair contest.
Back to John's question. Part of a league getting bigger is the loss of double round-robin basketball schedules. That's a bad thing, and it's bad because it creates an unbalanced schedule. The schedule rotates over a three-year period and is already set through the 2010-11 season to ensure an adequate rotation of the one-game partners. Here's a list of the schools that only play once this season:
|
Team | Plays at home only | Plays on road only |
|---|---|---|
| Boston College | Clemson, Duke, FSU | at UNC, at Maryland, at UVa |
| Clemson | Maryland, Duke, State | at UNC, at BC, at Miami |
| Duke | State, UVa, Miami | at G. Tech, at BC, at Clemson |
| FSU | UNC, Maryland, G. Tech | at Wake, at State, at BC |
| G. Tech | UVa, Duke, Miami | at UNC, at FSU, at V. Tech |
| Maryland | Wake, BC, V. Tech | at State, at FSU, at Clemson |
| Miami | Wake, Clemson, V. Tech | at Duke, at G. Tech, at UVa |
| Carolina | G. Tech, BC, Clemson | at Wake, at FSU, at V. Tech |
| NC State | Maryland, UVa, FSU | at Duke, at V. Tech, at Clemson |
| Virginia | Wake, BC, Miami | at Duke, at G. Tech, at State |
| V. Tech | G. Tech, UNC, State | at Maryland, at Wake, at Miami |
| Wake | UNC, FSU, V. Tech | at Maryland, at UVa, at Miami |
My guess is we can agree that the four best teams in the league are Duke, Wake, Clemson and Carolina, not necessarily in that order. The outside teams with the fewest games against that quartet are Miami (only play Carolina home-and-home) and Boston College (only play Wake Forest home-and-home). The Tar Heels and Clemson actually caught a break this year, as of the previously mentioned quartet, they only have a combined four games against the presumed top four. Wake and Duke, meanwhile, play five games against the top four. We'll see if that makes a difference in the league race.
During the 2008 ACC season, the home team won 63.8% of the one-time matchups.
I recently read online that Ademola Okulaja is fighting cancer. This is the first news I've heard of this. Is an interview in process with him?
Eric Leighton
Columbus, OH
As small as the world seems sometimes, this is a good example of how vast the basketball world can be. Okulaja, who was a member of the class that included Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison and then developed into the senior soul (and a first-team All-ACC pick) of the 1999 team, has been playing overseas since his graduation. As you would expect from a player who coupled a passion for the game with an engaging personality, he became extremely popular in his native Germany. Still, it went under the American radar when Okulaja announced last summer that he would miss the Olympics due to an operation for a spinal injury that revealed a tumor.
Because Okulaja's official website is in German, it's hard to get the complete details. What we do know is that shirts have been produced to support his fight, with all the proceeds going to a children's charity of Okulaja's choosing. We're in the process of arranging an interview with him, so we hope to have more in the near future. Thanks to this site for bringing this to our attention.
By the way, one of the above links includes a great video of an Okulaja dunk. If you liked that one, you definitely need to watch this one. The dunk is good. The play-by-play commentary is even better. If our German-to-English translator is working properly, the announcer is exclaiming, "Okulaja can fly also!"
Brownlow's Down Low
During the Wake game, Carolina's field goal percentage was 35.1%. Every time I looked at the score, I expected Wake to be ahead by 15 points or more, but they weren't; we only lost by 3 points. How many times the Tar Heels have had such a low shooting percentage and still managed to win/stay with the opposing team?
Heather Normal
Mt. Airy, NC
Lauren writes:
The last time Carolina shot such a low percentage from the floor was when the 2003-04 Tar Heels beat Akron 64-53 and shot 30.4 percent from the floor. The last time Carolina shot even close to that badly (below 36 percent) was in its last two NCAA Tournament losses - 35.8% against Kansas and 35.2% against Georgetown. One of those games was close, at least for a time, and another wasn't.Carolina does not often shoot under 40 percent from the floor, but since 1990-91, when it does, it has a 20-48 record. Coach Smith had a record of 6-11 in his final six seasons. Coach Guthridge went winless (0-5) in his three seasons. Coach Doherty was 7-18 (four of those wins came in the 2002-03 season and ten of the losses came in the 2001-02 season). Coach Williams is 7-14 after dropping two such contests this season. Coach Williams also has the biggest margin of victory and the narrowest losses among that group; in the 14 losses, Carolina lost by an average of 6.9 points. In the seven wins when Carolina shot under 40 percent, Carolina won by an average of 14 points.
Dating back to last season, Carolina has lost five games and four have come when Carolina shot under 40 percent. In Coach Williams' first four seasons, his teams lost 30 games and ten came when Carolina shot under 40 percent. In the last two years, Carolina's losses when it has shot under 40 percent have come by three, seven, two and 18 points (Kansas). In the 2007 season, Carolina lost by eight and 12 to Gonzaga and Georgetown, respectively.
When shooting under 40 percent, Carolina has lost 24 games by ten or fewer points and 24 games by double digits. Wake Forest has held Carolina under 40 percent nine of the last 39 meetings (nearly one-fourth) and Carolina has a 1-8 record. That is by far the most of any ACC rival. Virginia has done it seven of the last 39 games; Carolina is 4-3 in those games. Interestingly enough, all four of Carolina's wins against Virginia when shooting under 40 percent have come by double digits and by an average of 13.8 points.
Virginia has two double-digit wins when Carolina has shot under 40 percent and one by four points. Duke has done it five of the last 43 meetings (Carolina is 0-5 in those games) and four of those losses were by double digits. Georgia Tech has done it four of the last 38 meetings and Carolina is 0-4 in those games. Two losses came by four or fewer points and two were by double digits.
Adam Lucas is the publisher of Tar Heel Monthly. He is also the author or co-author of four books on Carolina basketball.
