University of North Carolina Athletics
Duke Game Guide
February 10, 2010 | Men's Basketball
Feb. 10, 2010
By Lauren Brownlow
The Basics
North Carolina (13-10, 2-6) will host No. 8/7 Duke (19-4, 7-2) in the first installment of the best rivalry in college basketball. Carolina is coming off of a 92-71 loss at Maryland on Sunday. Duke is coming off of a 66-63 win at Boston College on Saturday. The last time Carolina lost all its home games in a month was in 2002. Carolina's last home win was January 10th. After dropping their first two ACC road games and first three road games of the year, Duke has won two straight on the road in ACC play and two of their last three. Carolina has won six of the last seven in the rivalry and leads the series 130-97, including a 59-31 edge in Chapel Hill and a 14-10 lead in the Smith Center. Duke's last two wins have both come in Chapel Hill (2006 and 2008) and the Blue Devils have won seven of the last 11 in Chapel Hill. Duke has won the first meeting between the two rivals four of the last six years dating back to 2004. This will be the first meeting under Roy Williams that one team has been unranked and the first time Carolina has been unranked facing Duke since 2003, a game Carolina won in Chapel Hill. This is the 144th straight meeting when one of the teams is ranked, a streak that dates back to 1955, and the 128th straight when one was ranked in the top 20.
Game Time: Duke at North Carolina, 9:00 PM.
Last Time: Carolina beat Duke 79-71 on Senior Day, March 8, 2009. Carolina shot 52.8% for the game and out-rebounded Duke 37-22. Duke shot 56% in the first half but managed just 32% in the second half dropping it to 44% for the game. Tyler Hansbrough led Carolina with 17 points, eight rebounds and two blocks. Wayne Ellington had 16 points on 7-of-10 shooting. Deon Thompson added 14 points, most early on when Carolina really needed them. Ty Lawson had 13 points (9-of-1 from the foul line) to go along with eight rebounds and nine assists despite playing on a sore toe. Danny Green had 12 points and three steals. Jon Scheyer led Duke with 24 points on 7-of-7 shooting to go with his five assists and four steals. Kyle Singler had 23 points but shot just 7-of-18. Gerald Henderson was the only other Blue Devil in double figures with 14 points.
Radio Coverage: Tar Heel Sports Network coverage will begin at 8:00 PM.
Storylines
The three-pointer: Carolina has shown a propensity to give up three's to teams that don't normally make them and even more to teams that do. Maryland had an abundance of wide-open looks and had hit 9-of-16 by halftime. They average 6.9 per game, first in the league in ACC games and hit 12-of-23 against Carolina, tying a season high. Maryland had hit 12-of-39 in their previous three games. Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech are the only teams that hovered around their average; the Yellow Jackets made 6-of-13 and average 5.8 in league play. Virginia Tech averages 4.9 and hit just 8-of-37 in two games against Carolina. But Wake Forest has averaged 4.2 in league play but hit 9-of-16 in Carolina; they have since hit 14-of-53. Virginia has averaged 5.6 three's in ACC games but hit 7-of-17 against Carolina; the Cavaliers have made 11-of-35 in their last two. NC State made 7-of-22 but has hit 8-of-31 in their last two games. The three-point shot tends to particularly deflate this team, particularly if a team or player not normally known for making three's is suddenly raining them down. Sure, teams want to beat Carolina and that might help the occasional three-pointer wriggle its way in. But Carolina has given up open look after open look and most shooters around the league can knock those down. Carolina is not making enough three's - or scoring enough - to make up for it. Carolina is actually one spot below Duke in three-point percentage, making only six fewer than the Blue Devils in one fewer ACC game. But in losses this year, Carolina has attempted 26.1% of its shots from beyond the arc compared to 18.3% in 13 wins; just 14% of made field goals have been three's in 13 wins compared to 21.1% in ten losses. Carolina has shot 55.5% from two-point range in 13 wins and 42.7% in ten losses.
The Blue Devils can defend the three, No. 2 in ACC-only three-point defense (25%) while Carolina is tenth (36.4 percent). Only one school has allowed more three's on average than Carolina in league play (7.0) and that is Florida State (7.7). Duke is not letting opponents get good looks beyond the arc; the Blue Devils' opponents have scored just 19.1% of their points from three. Only six teams in America allow a lower percentage of points from beyond the arc. That matches up well with Carolina, which only scores 19.1% of its points from three. Duke has let opponents score 60.6% of their points from two-point range and Carolina has scored 60.9% of their points from two. Duke is not as reliant on the three as it used to be; they are scoring 28% of their points from beyond the arc but have attempted 20 or more in just two ACC games. The Blue Devils have hit 17-of-35 three's in the last two games, but those have accounted for just a third of their points in those games.
The scary part about Duke is not only that players like Nolan Smith have stepped up their shooting - he is making 44.2 percent - but also that Smith, Jon Scheyer and even Kyle Singler are capable of either driving and dishing to an open teammate or finishing. They are all threats to either shoot three's or drive, and that makes it tricky to defend them. Carolina has had a hard enough time defending just one such player, much less three. Roy Williams needs his team to be better as a unit on defense, but he also needs each player to step up individually. "For us, it's got to start with guarding the basketball and doing a better job there so we don't have to help. If you do have to help, then you've got to get five guys involved," Williams said. "If you over-help and over-help, then all of a sudden, they ... throw the ball up around the basket and then one of the big guys gets it and dunks it. So you have to be cautious as to how much you help. The easiest way to do it is to all of a sudden be able to guard your own man."
What's made it more frustrating for players like Marcus Ginyard is that this team has proven itself capable of being good defensively, alternating good to great defensive possessions with horrendous ones. "A lot of times we'll come down and all five guys will be playing great on defense. Then the next time, one guy will slip up," Ginyard said. "That makes it that much more frustrating when you see how good a team can be. You've seen how close you can play to your potential at times. To not play like that all the time, it does make it more disappointing."
At The Game
Listening to the Tar Heel Sports network at the game: The in-stadium frequency in the Smith Center will be FM 92.7. That station will have a non-delayed feed of WCHL 1360, the local affiliate.
Watching At Home
Turn down the sound: If you're watching at home while listening to the radio or over the computer via Carolina All-Access, there will inevitably be some delay. For the reason - and a possible solution - click here.
A full list of THSN affiliates can be found here.
ESPN/Raycom coverage: The game will be available nationally on ESPN and regionally on Raycom. On ESPN, Dan Shulman, Dick Vitale and Erin Andrews will handle the call while on Raycom, it will be Tim Brando and Dan Bonner.
Names To Know
Marcus Ginyard: Ginyard had his first double-digit scoring effort since December 22nd and his highest output since 17 points against NC Central when he had 17 at Maryland on Sunday. It was a relief to the coaches, fans and even more so to Ginyard himself. To call the stretch he had been in since returning from injury a slump would be putting it mildly. Ginyard had hit 8-of-35 shots in ACC play, 2-of-16 three's and averaged just 3.3 points, 1.7 assists and 2.6 turnovers. Against Maryland, he hit 38.5% of his shots but 3-of-8 three's, his most since November, and 4-of-6 foul shots, his most attempts since Michigan State. Pre-injury, Ginyard had been averaging 11 points on 51.1% shooting (46.9% from beyond the arc), 3.9 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.6 turnovers. He had hit 53.4% of his two-pointers as opposed to just 33.3% in ACC play. "There have been some difficult times for me personally, but you're just trying to focus on that smile again," Ginyard said. "You finally pick your head up to see, hey, you've got four more games in this gym and it starts to sink in pretty fast - why go through the rest of that with your head down? Why go through the rest of that not having the most fun you could possibly have?" The senior has had some of his best games against Duke, averaging nine points, 3.2 rebounds, two assists and 1.8 turnovers. He has also hit 43.2% of his shots including 37.5% of his three's and has added 19-of-22 foul shots (86.4%), averaging 3.7 attempts. In his last three games against Duke - including none last year, obviously - he hit 8-of-22 shots and 3-of-6 three's, draining 12-of-12 foul shots and averaging 10.3 points. He knows the importance of this rivalry and a big game from Ginyard as his career at Carolina winds down would be huge for this team. "Thousands and thousands of people look back at their college athletic careers and want to be back there," Ginyard said. "Right now, we just have to start living in the moment and enjoying the time that we have here. I have four more games left in the Smith Center, so we really just want to be back to just enjoying the time that we're spending out here on the court."
Larry Drew II: When Larry Drew II does not play well, Carolina does not play well. The Tar Heels are 3-9 when he hits less than 50% of his shots. But it's more complicated than that, and the difference in his play in wins and losses has been astronomical. He has the lowest shooting percentage of any Tar Heel in Carolina's ten losses (30.7%) and the second-highest in 13 wins (57.8%). In wins, he has shot 57.1% from three compared to 30% in losses, averaging 10.7 points in wins and 6.2 in losses. He also gets to the line 3.1 times in wins and 1.2 in losses and has a 1.4 assist/turnover ratio in losses compared to 2.5 in wins. Even his two-point attempts don't fall in losses (just 31.1% to 58% in wins). Recently, he has at times looked unsure when penetrating, undecided whether to pass or shoot and by the time he decides, he turns it over or misses badly. With the pressure Duke puts on the ball, it's critical for Drew II to be able to make good decisions while also being aggressive and taking advantage of what Duke gives up defensively. At Maryland, he was 0-of-6 and had a stretch of two turnovers in 19 seconds during a 10-0 Maryland run that saw the game get away. At the 7:48 mark, Carolina was down 77-59, not impossible, and he missed his only two free-throw attempts of the game. In the first 15:12 of that game, he had four assists and no turnovers; not coincidentally, Carolina was down just 34-30. Then in the final 24:48, he had one assist and four turnovers. He knows how important his play is to this team's success and he is ready to prove that was an aberration. "(I need to) look to attack, whether that means shooting the ball more or making better decisions when I'm in the paint, just going out and playing my game. I've been tentative some games and it shows because usually, it's a negative outcome. I'm just really eager to go out there and have another chance to change that."
Jon Scheyer: Duke's senior point guard has been dominating the stats, ranking in the top ten in nearly every statistical category except blocks and rebounds. He is fourth in league-only scoring (18.2 points), tenth in field-goal percentage (41.9%), eighth in three-point percentage (33.9%) and fourth in made threes (2.3). Carolina has faced seven players shooting a higher percentage in ACC play and the only time Carolina held one of those players below his average, they won - Virginia Tech's Dorenzo Hudson shot 7-of-22 against Carolina. Everyone else in that top ten has shot at or above their ACC percentage. Against the top three-point shooters, it has been the same story. Eric Hayes (51.4%), Greivis Vasquez (43.1%) and Sammy Zeglinski (36.4%) all combined to shoot above their averages - 15-of-24, or 62.5 percent. Scheyer is capable of doing that and more; he hit 7-of-7 shots against Carolina last year, including 3-of-3 three's. In his career against Carolina, he has averaged 18.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, three assists, 2.2 steals and just 1.3 turnovers in 35 minutes per game. Those stats would be good enough by themselves, except Scheyer has also made 46.5% of his field goals, 83.3% of his free throws (of which he has averaged six attempts) and 46.9% of his three-pointers (2.5 per game). Last year, in two games he averaged 22 points, 4.5 assists and three steals. In Chapel Hill, he hit all seven field goals, all three three-pointers 7-of-8 free throws, adding three rebounds, five assists, four steals and no turnovers in 39 minutes. Carolina had no one that could guard him and the savvy veteran will have even more of an advantage against this defensively challenged group in terms of drawing contact, getting to the line and getting his teammates - and himself - good looks. This year, Scheyer hit 40% or more of his shots in 11 of Duke's first 15 games, including seven in a row that included the first two ACC games. He went through a four-game skid under 40% and then in three of the last four, he has shot 40% or better, the lone exception being the Georgetown loss. In the last two games, both Duke wins, Scheyer has made 11-of-21 shots (5-of-11 three's) and 15-of-16 free throws, averaging 21 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 2.5 steals and 2.5 turnovers, playing all but one minute. Fatigue doesn't seem to be catching up to him and he still has his legs available to do everything Duke has asked of him.
Kyle Singler: With the emergence of the other two members of the "Big Three", the junior has become almost the forgotten man, but he's still a dangerous scorer and he showed with his 30-point output against Georgia Tech, including 8-of-10 three-pointers. In the past, with Duke having less depth in the post, Singler was forced to play inside. Now, he does not have to bang inside but the transition has still been a little different for him. While other members of the "Big Three" been able to struggle and Duke still win, that hasn't been the case with Singler. In Duke's ACC losses, Singler has shot 27.6% from the floor and 18.2% from beyond the arc, averaging 3.5 fouls and 3.5 turnovers. But in seven wins, he has averaged 18 points on 43.9% shooting (42.1% from three). Most of Singler's struggles have come on the road - he has shot 30.9% in ACC road games and 47.2% at home, averaging 13.8 points on the road to 20.4 at home. His road struggles continued at Boston College; he did have three blocks but he scored 12 points on 4-of-14 shooting. In his career, he has averaged 17.3 points and 7.5 rebounds against Carolina to go with two assists and 1.3 steals in 36.3 minutes. He averaged 22.5 points, six rebounds, two assists, 1.5 steals and a block in two Carolina games last year, shooting 48.5% and 46.7% from beyond the arc. Even when he is struggling from three, he always seems to find his stroke against the Tar Heels, averaging more made three's in four games against Carolina (3.0) than Jon Scheyer. If Singler gets hot and starts making three's, it will be that much more difficult for Carolina to stay in the game. Teams would rather him shoot three's, but they can't be wide open, the variety Carolina has been giving up lately. He's a tough player to guard due to his versatility but if Carolina can contain him on the perimeter, they will have a better chance of limiting him to a quiet night.
Lauren Brownlow is the executive editor of Tar Heel Monthly.
