University of North Carolina Athletics
Duke Game Guide
March 13, 2011 | Men's Basketball
March 13, 2011
By Lauren Brownlow
The Basics
No. 6/7 North Carolina (26-6, 14-2) will face No. 5 Duke (27-4, 13-3) in the ACC Tournament Championship game. It is the first time since 2001 (Carolina and Duke) that the top two seeds will meet in the title game. Carolina, the No. 1 seed, beat fourth-seeded Clemson 92-87 in overtime in the first semifinal while No. 2 seed Duke beat 6th-seeded Virginia Tech 77-63 in the second semifinal. This is the 11th meeting between Carolina and Duke in the ACC Tournament Championship game; Carolina is 6-4 in those games but Duke has won two in a row (2001, 1999). After the ten meetings for the ACC Tournament title, either Duke or North Carolina has gone on to the Final Four nine times (Duke has won three of its four national titles after the meetings: 1991, 1992 and 2001). The only time neither school made the Final Four was 1979. Carolina is 8-11 overall against Duke in the ACC Tournament but the two schools have not met since 2003 (Duke won in the semifinals). The two teams have combined to win 35 of the 57 ACC Tournament titles (Duke has won 18 and Carolina has 17). Carolina is 86-39 in the event while Duke is 89-39. Carolina has played the No. 2 seed in the title game as the No. 1 seed six times and is 4-2 in those games, 2-1 against Duke in that scenario).
Game Time: North Carolina vs. Duke, 1:00 PM, Raycom/ESPN
Last Time: Carolina beat Duke 81-67 in Chapel HIll on March 5 to win the ACC regular-season title outright. Carolina led 51-39 at halftime on nearly 58% shooting but survived shooting just 44% in the second half as Duke shot 33.3% in that stanza (35.5% for the game). Carolina shot 52.4% for the game. The Tar Heels won the rebounding battle 42-35 and hit 4-of-9 three-pointers while Duke hit just 6-of-27 (22.2%). Duke did make a second-half push but would get no closer than five points. Carolina was led by Harrison Barnes' 18 points; Tyler Zeller added 14 points and Kendall Marshall had 15 points and 11 assists. John Henson had 10 points and a game-high 12 rebounds. Nolan Smith led Duke with 30 of the Blue Devils' 67 points on 9-of-19 shooting. Seth Curry added 20 points on 6-of-13 shooting; the rest of the team had 17 points on 7-of-30 shooting. Miles Plumlee had 11 of Duke's 35 rebounds to go with seven points.
Radio Coverage: Tar Heel Sports Network coverage will begin at 12:00 PM.
Watching At Home
Turn down the sound: If you're watching the game at home while listening to the radio or over the computer via Carolina All-Access, there will inevitably be some delay. For the reason - and a possible solution - click here.
A full list of THSN affiliates can be found here.
Raycom/ESPN coverage: The game will be available regionally on Raycom and nationally on ESPN.
Storylines
Coming out fast: Oddly enough, this is a new problem for the Tar Heels. Carolina has trailed at the half before, but not quite like it has in the ACC Tournament so far (-10 to Clemson, -9 to Miami). After nearly 55 minutes of game play in the ACC Tournament (9:55 mark against Miami, 16:28 against Clemson), Carolina was outscored 98-69. But in the final 31:23 combined in each game (10 minutes against Miami, around 20 against Clemson including overtime), Carolina outscored its opponents 84-48 in a much shorter span. It not only shows what Carolina is capable of doing, it also shows what it was not doing well in the beginnings of games. Once is a coincidence and twice is at trend; this recent trend of carelessness with the basketball. Carolina had ten turnovers in 40 minutes against Duke in the regular-season finale. In the last two games, Carolina has had nine turnovers in the first 9:17 of each game (four in the first 4:22 against Miami, five in the first 4:55 against Clemson). In its first 18 possessions, Carolina has a 50% loss of ball in those two games. In the other 169 possessions of each game, Carolina has had 26 turnovers. Against Clemson, the disparity was even worse - ten turnovers in the final 84 possessions but five in the first ten. Miami didn't make much of a dent until later but Clemson led 11-3 early and the two teams combined to score 54 of 136 points (nearly 40%) off of Carolina's turnovers alone. And while some of the turnovers against Clemson were due to the Tigers' aggressiveness, most of the turnovers in both games were due to carelessness. "I have no idea why we got off to such a slow start. If I knew what the heck it was I already would have changed it. Recently, we've been playing well early but yesterday and today we didn't play as well early ... "For us to play effectively, we've got to be more aggressive ourselves and not let the other team be the aggressor."
Duke has not allowed an ACC team to shoot over 50% in the second half since NC State did it in Raleigh in a Duke blowout win. Those 50 points were also the most Duke has allowed in a second half this season. And in all ACC games (including the ACC Tournament), Duke is +113 (+6.3 per game) in the second half compared to +88 (+4.9 per game) in the first half. In the ACC Tournament, Duke is actually +20 in the first half (10.0 per game) and +10 in the second (+5.0 per game). Duke has been outscored by ten or more in the first half twice this season and both times were by Carolina (they trailed by 12 in Chapel Hill and by 14 in Durham). But Duke's +20 margin in the second stanza was its second-biggest margin in ACC play this year behind +21 against Virginia. Duke was outscored in the first half by three other teams this year - Virginia Tech in Blacksburg (Duke loss), Florida State in Tallahassee (Duke loss) and Virginia in Durham (they outscored Virginia by 21 in the second half). But what has happened is that Duke is using the end of halves to regain some momentum and while Virginia Tech and Maryland both stayed within striking distance in the ACC Tournament, neither could cut into a combined 20-point deficit at half (11 against Virginia Tech, nine against Maryland) enough in the second stanza. That is what Duke does well - hold on to leads. Carolina cannot expect to come out flat yet again and come back, yet again, against a team like this. Carolina has to come out aggressive from the jump.
Names To Know
Harrison Barnes: One thing that seemingly set the 2011 Tar Heels apart from the 2006 version was that '06 Carolina had a superstar in Tyler Hansbrough that it could go to whenever it needed someone to carry them (see Georgia Tech in the Smith Center). This Carolina team has been more balanced, and it still is. But Harrison Barnes proved Saturday - and Friday, for that matter - that he is more than capable of being that person. In two ACC Tournament games, Barnes has shot 19-of-30 from the floor (63.3%) and 10-of-18 (55.6%) from three, adding 10-of-11 foul shots (all against Clemson) and averaged 29.5 points. He has also added 6.5 rebounds (3.0 offensive), 1.5 assists and just 1.5 fouls in 37.5 minutes. He has also made 9-of-12 two-pointers, an important statistic for Barnes, who at times became too three-happy. He has balanced out his game perfectly and particularly in the first half of both games, he has carried the Tar Heels. Barnes has 26 first-half points in the two games on 10-of-16 shooting (4-of-8 from three). Everyone else on Carolina has 24 first-half points on 6-of-30 shooting (1-of-7 from three). In all halves, he has 59 of Carolina's 153 points and 19 of 52 made field goals (10 of 18 three's as well). His 40-point game is a freshman ACC Tournament record. While it's amazing Barnes has been playing that well, and Carolina certainly doesn't want him to stop, he'll have his toughest test of the Tournament on both ends in Kyle Singler. Against Duke, Barnes has averaged 13.5 points in the two games on 10-of-25 shooting (3-of-9 from three) but helped hold Singler to 6-of-31 shooting.
Tyler Zeller: Every team defends Carolina's big man differently, and while it has taken him a half of basketball to get adjusted to it so far in the ACC Tournament, he has adjusted quite nicely. Overall, he has averaged 13.5 points on 11-of-20 shooting to go with 7.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 31.0 minutes per game. But in the first half of each game, Zeller has eight points on 2-of-7 shooting (4-of-4 from the foul line) to go with seven rebounds, one assist and two turnovers in 31 minutes. In the second half (and overtime, counting Clemson) he has 19 points in 31 second-half minutes on 9-of-13 shooting, adding eight rebounds (four offensive), three assists and no turnovers. Zeller's second-half surges are common for him this year, and particularly lately - he has eight double-digit second halves in Carolina's last 13 games (three double-digit first halves). And while Barnes is more well-known as Carolina's go-to option in the clutch, it was Zeller who has hit three of Carolina's biggest baskets of the ACC Tournament so far - against Miami, he both tied and won the game and then against Clemson, he tied it with 29 seconds left in regulation. He has four assists in the Tournament (he had 13 coming into it, and hadn't had one since February 6th). He just seems to be getting more and more comfortable with each game and his aggression is increasing down the stretch, particularly when it comes to establishing his position down low and keeping it. Duke's bigs will try to be as physical as possible with him, but he has still managed to average 19 points on 17-of-25 shooting against Duke this year to go with 18 rebounds (he did have just five in Chapel Hill recently). Considering the tests he has faced so far in big Reggie Johnson and Jerai Grant, he should be ready.
Nolan Smith: The ACC Player of the Year may have struggled against Maryland, notching seven points (his first single-digit game since December 8th) on 2-of-11 shooting in 31 minutes and leaving with a toe injury, but he is back on track. Against Virginia Tech, two weeks after he had 18 in a loss, he dropped 27 on 8-of-16 shooting (9-of-13 from the foul line) in Duke's semifinal win. Smith has three 30-point games this season, and two have come against Carolina (the other was in a loss to St. John's). Carolina has had a very hard time defending him - as have many teams - but he has averaged 10 free-throw attempts and has shot 19-of-38 (50%) against the Tar Heels (but just 2-of-10 from three). Carolina has had a very hard time containing dribble penetration in the ACC Tournament so far - opposing point guards have averaged 20.5 points on 13-of-30 shooting (10-of-16 from the foul line) and added 4.5 assists - but this is not a new trend. In the last five games, opposing point guards have averaged 22.4 points on 38-of-78 shooting (31-of-39 from the foul line). Smith is in there, but so is Malcolm Grant, Demontez Stitt (who had a career-high 25), Derwin Kitchen (who had just 13 but shot 5-of-9) and Maryland freshman Terrell Stoglin (who had a career-high 28 on 11-of-20 shooting, 11-of-17 from two-point range). Smith has made 17-of-28 from inside the arc against the Tar Heels. That can't happen on Sunday, particularly considering how adept he is at taking over games anyway.
Kyle Singler: The senior's struggles shooting the ball recently have been well-documented, but against Maryland, he managed to put up 29 points (his most since he had 30 at Oregon on November 27th) on 10-of-15 shooting. In fact, in three games against Maryland, Singler averaged 25.3 points on 30-of-49 shooting (5-of-15 from three, meaning he made 25-of-34 two's!). He also averaged 4.7 free-throw attempts against the Terps and added 8.3 rebounds. But against all other ACC opponents, he averaged 14.6 points on 35.6% shooting (26.3% from three). He is still in a slump from three, as of late - he has made 5-of-37 (13.5%) in his last ten games after making 52-of-139 (37.4%) in Duke's first 23 games. But he has really been rebounding the ball well, averaging 9.8 in the last five games (3.0 offensive) and getting to the line more, averaging 7.2 attempts in the last six games. While he has flourished against Maryland, he has struggled against Carolina this season, averaging 9.5 points on 6-of-31 shooting (1-of-11 from three), adding 7.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, no steals and no blocks. Even with those kinds of struggles, though, he is still averaging 16.4 points over the course of his career against the Tar Heels and he has shot 39-of-89 (43.8%) in those other six games and 19-of-38 from three (50%). He is more than capable of having yet another afternoon like that and he appears to be gaining confidence, a dangerous proposition for the Tar Heels. Harrison Barnes will be very busy trying to limit the senior swingman yet again, but Singler will be busy on Barnes as well.
Lauren Brownlow is the executive editor of Tar Heel Monthly.
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