University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: Offensive Output
February 25, 2014 | Men's Basketball
Even as Carolina built a six-game winning streak following a 1-4 Atlantic Coast Conference start, it seemed fairly obvious what the fingerprint of this year's Tar Heels might be: stingy defensively, but sometimes offensively challenged.
Carolina has been uncharacteristically good this season at defending the three-point line (opponents are hitting just 31.0% from the arc in ACC play, which leads the league) and solid at limiting the second shot opportunities of opponents (the Tar Heel defense is allowing an offensive rebounding percentage of just 30.3%, fourth-best in the league).
Roy Williams has deployed multiple defenses, mixing the standard man-to-man with occasional traps, plus two different zones, to take advantage of his team's athletic and flexible personnel. But just as you began to get comfortable with the idea that this year's team wasn't likely to outscore anyone, they suddenly turned into the high-powered 2009 Tar Heels.
Or, perhaps, even better than the 2009 Tar Heels, at least for a week. Check out this stat from ESPN's John Gasaway (who also wrote a very worthwihle Insider story on the Tar Heel offense and thinks the Tar Heels could be dangerous if underseeded in March):
UNC scored 1.45 points per trip vs Wake, Heels' best offense in ACC play since 2/22/06 (1.50, @ NC State).
— John Gasaway (@JohnGasaway) February 23, 2014
Sure, that's just one game of productivity, and a school record-setting 11-for-15 from the three-point line has a way of inflating offensive numbers. But Carolina was also good offensively against Duke and scorching hot in the second half against Florida State. In three games last week, the Tar Heels averaged 1.24 points per possession. In the previous 11 ACC games, they'd managed just 1.04 points per possession.
So, what's leading to the better numbers, and more importantly, is it sustainable?
This one is pretty easy: Leslie McDonald made shots. The senior was just 1-for-8 at Florida State, capping a stretch when he shot 8-for-31 over four games. He then proceeded to shoot 14-for-21 against Duke and Wake. The six three-pointers he made in those two games were as many as he'd made in the previous month of February combined.
It's not reasonable to believe the senior is going to finish the season hitting two-thirds of his shots. But even if he could just find the middle between his cold and hot streaks, that would help the Tar Heel offense.
One way he could be more consistent offensively--continue to take the ball to the basket more aggressively, and knock down free throws when he has the chance. McDonald has made 10 of his last 12 (83.3%) charity tosses after shooting 60.4% from the line in his first 15 games.
Better with the ball
Carolina's ball movement last week looked much more like the free-flowing offense that played at Michigan State or against Louisville. Over the last three games, the Tar Heels have handed out 44 assists on 80 field goals, meaning 55 percent of Carolina hoops have been accompanied by a point to the passer.
In the previous 11 ACC games, just 44.2% of Carolina's field goals were assisted, and the offense sometimes devolved into standing around and waiting to see what Marcus Paige might conjure out of thin air.
In addition, the Tar Heels are taking better care of the basketball. They've trimmed their turnovers from 12.2 per game in the first 11 ACC games to 10.7 per game over the last three contests.
Balance
Marcus Paige hasn't led Carolina in scoring since the Maryland game on Feb. 4, which feels like a long time ago. In 14 ACC games, either Paige or James Michael McAdoo have led the Tar Heels in scoring nine times. Three of the exceptions came last week, as McDonald took honors twice and Kennedy Meeks was the leading scorer at Florida State.
"That has been good for us," Roy Williams said Tuesday. "People still load up on either Marcus or James Michael more than anyone else, and other guys have kept us in the game...We talk all the time about when you come in the game, give us something positive. Those other guys have done that, whether it's Brice (Johnson) off the bench or Leslie starting to make shots or Kennedy taking it to the basket. That has given the other guys the feeling that it doesn't have to be on them."
Adam Lucas is the editor of CAROLINA.
