University of North Carolina Athletics
Carolina Opponent Capsules
March 18, 2014 | Men's Basketball
No. 11 Providence
Location: Providence, R.I.
Record: 23-11, 10-8 Big East
Bid: Automatic
Series record against UNC (Last meeting): 1-2 (UNC 89, PC 55, Feb. 10, 1979, Charlotte, N.C.)
No Carolina player was alive the last time the Tar Heels met the Friars on the hardwood, as the two schools have not faced one another since 1979. Providence, as you've certainly heard by now, enters the tournament after winning three games in three days at Madison Square Garden to grab the automatic bid from the Big East. After a road-heavy midseason stretch that saw them lose four of five, the Friars won seven of their last nine, with the two losses coming in double OT to Villanova and at Creighton. PC actually beat Creighton twice in 2014, including a 65-58 victory in the Big East title game.
It has been noted that Providence ranks in the bottom third in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted tempo, and while that may seem to clash with Carolina's preferred style, it's not something that will be unique for a 2013-14 Tar Heel opponent. In fact, the ACC was easily the slowest major conference in America this season and only four ACC teams - UNC, Maryland, NC State and Wake Forest - averaged more possessions in league play than PC's 64.1.
Individually, Providence point guard Bryce Cotton plays a higher percentage of possible minutes than any other player in the country. The Big East Tournament Most Outstanding Player and a first-team All-Big East performer for coach Ed Cooley, Cotton was on the court for 1,358 of the Friars' 1,410 overall minutes this season, a whopping 96.3% of the time. For the sake of comparison, UNC ironman Marcus Paige has been on the court for 88.2% of Carolina's minutes.
Trend to watch: Providence ranks 294th in defensive turnover percentage according to KenPom, while UNC is 84th in offensive turnover percentage. In simpler terms, Carolina protects the ball fairly well while Providence struggles to force turnovers.
No. 3 Iowa State
Location: Ames, Iowa
Record: 26-7, 11-7 Big 12
Bid: Automatic
Series record against UNC (Last meeting): 0-3 (UNC 92, Iowa State 65, March 20, 2005, Charlotte, N.C.)
The 2005 NCAA champion Tar Heels shredded Iowa State in the second round of that year's tournament by a 92-65 margin in Charlotte and ISU missed the tournament each of the next six seasons. Head coach and Cyclone legend Fred Hoiberg is at the helm now, however, and has led his alma mater to three straight tournament bids and this year's No. 3 seed is the school's highest since the second-seeded 2001 squad was upset by Hampton in the first round.
Hoiberg has built one of the nation's most formidable offenses in Ames, taking the Cyclones from 115th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency in their final year under Greg McDermott to three straight seasons in the top 25. (Coincidentally, McDermott's offense has been pretty efficient at Creighton in his four seasons in Omaha, rising to No. 1 in the country in offensive efficiency this season due in no small part to his son Doug.) ISU will be happy to run with the Tar Heels should they meet again in the second round, as the Cyclones were the fastest major-conference team in league play in 2014 according to John Gasaway's data.
Iowa State has three players averaging at least 16 points per game: Big 12 Player of the Year Melvin Ejim, conference tournament MOP DeAndre Kane and third-team all-league forward Georges Niang. Delaware is the only other NCAA tournament team that can make that claim. Despite their success at the rim (they make 54.6% of their 2s, according to KenPom), the Cyclones are one of the smallest teams in the country, ranking 325th in effective height.
Trend to watch: Iowa State takes almost all of its field goal attempts from either close range or behind the three point line, taking mid-range jumpers just 8.5% of the time. Conversely, UNC takes a higher-percentage of mid-range shots (25.9%) than anyone else in the field of 68 according to ShotAnalytics.com.
No. 14 North Carolina Central
Location: Durham, N.C.
Record: 28-5, 15-1 Mid-Eastern Athletic
Bid: Automatic
Series record with UNC (Last meeting): 0-1 (UNC 89, NCCU 42, Nov. 11, 2009, Chapel Hill)
North Carolina Central avoided the fate that befell so many small-conference regular season champions in 2014 by winning the MEAC tournament title with a 71-62 victory over Morgan State. The Eagles haven't lost since their conference opener at Florida A&M on Jan. 11, but a loss in the postseason tournament would have pushed them to the NIT like regular season champs Vermont, High Point, UC Irvine, Green Bay, Iona, Robert Morris, Belmont, Boston U., Davidson, Louisiana Tech, Florida Gulf Coast, Georgia State and Utah Valley.
Perhaps the most impressive result of the season thus far for LeVelle Moton's Eagles came in one of their five losses. NCCU went on the road to face undefeated Wichita State on Dec. 22 and lost by 11, 77-66. The Shockers played 21 games against the Missouri Valley Conference in 2014 and on just four occasions was the margin of victory 11 points or less. That was three months ago, however, and the Eagles have not seen a team of the caliber of Iowa State in a long time. Only two other teams in the MEAC rank in the top 250 of the KenPom ratings, a fact that makes NCCU's place at No. 78 all the more incredible.
A No. 14 seed is the highest in MEAC history, and the conference does have some NCAA tournament success to hang its hat on. On three occasions, a 15th-seeded MEAC team has upset a No. 2 seed. In addition to the aforementioned Hampton-Iowa State game in 2001, Coppin State stunned second-seeded South Carolina in 1997 and Norfolk State shocked No. 2 Missouri in 2012. If the Eagles are to join that list in their first Division I tournament appearance, conference player of the year Jeremy Ingram will be the key. Ingram averages 20.6 points per game and ranks 21st nationally in KenPom's offensive rating among players that use at least 28% of their team's possessions. Notable high-usage players around Ingram on that list - No. 14 T.J. Warren and No. 23 Jabari Parker.
Trend to watch: While Ingram gets much of the spotlight for NCCU (and rightfully so), super-sub Jordan Parks has been incredibly efficient off the bench. Parks ranks ninth in KenPom's O-rating among players with 20% of possessions used and shoots an eye-popping 66.2% from the field.
