University of North Carolina Athletics
Know Your Opponent: Syracuse
January 25, 2015 | Men's Basketball
Syracuse (cuse.com)
Rankings: No. 75 KenPom, NR AP
Location: Syracuse, N.Y.
2014-15 Record: 14-6, 5-2 ACC
Carolina Series History (Last Meeting): Series tied 4-4 (Syracuse 57, UNC 45, Jan. 11, 2014, Carrier Dome)
The last Carolina-Syracuse game represented the nadir of the 2013-14 season for the Tar Heels. In a 57-45 loss at the Carrier Dome, Carolina scored a paltry 0.75 points per possession in falling to 10-6 and 0-3 in the ACC. From there, UNC went on a 12-1 run to reach 23-7 and 13-4 in the league, ultimately finishing in a tie for third with Duke.
This year, it's the Orange who may see the one regular season meeting with Carolina as a potential turning point. Syracuse has a healthy 14-6 record and a 5-2 mark in conference play, and could certainly find itself at 9-2 or 8-3 following a four-game stretch against UNC, Virginia Tech, Pitt and Boston College. But a loss Monday would be 'Cuse's third in four outings with games against Duke (twice), Louisville, Notre Dame and Virginia still to come. Factor in an RPI of 62 (say what you want about the RPI, it's still the No. 1 tool the committee uses) and a lack of marquee wins, and Jim Boeheim's group could be facing a fight for its tournament life down the stretch.
After three years as an effective complimentary player, Rakeem Christmas has made the leap to leading man as a senior and has emerged as one of the nation's premier post players. The 6-9 center from Philadelphia leads the Orange with 18.3 points and 8.9 rebounds per game, and his scoring has increased to 20.0 points per ACC contest. Christmas makes nearly 60 percent of his field goal attempts and over 70 percent of his free throws, and he gets to line almost six times per game. In the four games since 6-10 freshman Chris McCullough was lost for the season with a torn ACL, Christmas has averaged more than 22 points per game, including a 35-point effort in a win over Wake Forest.
Junior Trevor Cooney is the team's volume outside shooter (52 of 139 from 3). He, Christmas and Michael Gbinije are basically never out of the game, with all three men averaging 37 or more minutes per contest in ACC play. Cooney actually averages 40.1 minutes in league competition, having gone to the bench for just four minutes of 'Cuse's first seven games. Despite being the second option from the outside, Gbinije is the most effective 3-point threat, making almost 40 percent of his 3s for the year and 50 percent of them against ACC teams.
Defense is the calling card of this Syracuse team, however, and the Orange entered the week as one of only three teams in the league allowing less than a point per possession in conference games along with Virginia and Carolina. 'Cuse ranks in the top 20 nationally in KenPom.com's adjusted defensive efficiency, 3-point defense, block percentage and steal percentage. The loss of McCullough was a big blow to the defense, leaving Christmas as the only shot-blocking threat, though the insertion of Tyler Roberson into the starting lineup has boosted Syracuse's rebounding on both ends.
Boeheim's well-known preference for zone defense does leave the Orange vulnerable to offensive rebounds, and Syracuse opponents have grabbed 30.6 percent of their missed shots this season, a rate that ranks No. 151 nationally. That could prove problematic against a UNC team that is second-best in the land in rebounding its own misses.
