University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: Ramifications Of Paige's Prognosis
November 4, 2015 | Men's Basketball, Featured Writers, Adam Lucas
By Adam Lucas
For the second time, Carolina will start a season under Roy Williams as the preseason number-one team in the nation, but without their acknowledged senior leader.
The news that Marcus Paige will miss 3-4 weeks with a broken hand is unfortunate, but not devastating. The 2008-09 team was without Tyler Hansbrough for four early-season games due to a shin injury, and went on to a dominating run to the NCAA title, with Hansbrough's early absence nothing more than a footnote. Paige himself reached out to fans on Wednesday night via Twitter:
I'll be back soon, no worries. I appreciate all the support!
— Marcus Paige (@marcuspaige5) November 4, 2015
So what does Paige's injury actually mean?
1. It's great news that it's not his ankles or feet. This is, by far, the most important part of today's announcement. Paige had ankle and feet issues that lingered throughout his junior season and by his own admission, limited his performance. This is what should be a one-time injury to his non-shooting hand that will be fully healed before the first Atlantic Coast Conference game ever tips off. At most, he misses seven or eight games—all at the beginning—of what will hopefully be a 40-game season. If your senior All-American has to be injured, that's the way you want it to happen. As it was astutely put by Kendall Marshall, who knows too much about this topic…
better now than March
— Kendall Marshall (@KButter5) November 4, 2015
2. It's a player who is a known quantity. Sometimes a player gets hurt and you aren't sure how it will impact his production when he returns. Theo Pinson is working his way back from a foot injury, and missing early-season games would be a setback for figuring out where he fits for the Tar Heels.
But you know what will happen when Paige returns to the lineup? He'll be Marcus Paige. Roy Williams won't have to waste a second wondering how to use Paige or what he might contribute.
3. It gives Justin Jackson a month to be Carolina's primary perimeter offensive threat. Jackson came so far as a freshman that in the season-ending loss to Wisconsin, in a must-score situation with under five minutes to go, Roy Williams drew up a set for Jackson to fire a three-pointer. Somewhere in the Tar Heels' first four weeks, there's likely to be a game when Carolina needs a big basket late. It will be terrific experience for Jackson to be the go-to perimeter player in that situation, and it only makes the Tar Heels better—and more dangerous—for him to get that opportunity without Paige as an easy fallback.
4. It will have negligible NCAA Tournament impact. The ACC is strong enough this year that the Tar Heels will have plenty of opportunities to play (and win) big games against quality opposition. Even if Paige misses what could be a top-3 showdown against Maryland on Dec. 1, he should be ready for a Brooklyn showdown against UCLA on Dec. 19, two chances against Duke and a road game at Virginia, in addition to the rest of the conference slate. The selection committee isn't going to place much weight on a handful of November and (possibly) December games without Paige when they have two dozen games with Paige closer to Selection Sunday.
5. It means more of Nate Britt and Joel Berry II. Both players were somewhat sporadic last season, but both players also played well in big games. Britt scored ten points in the NCAA Tournament win over Arkansas, and Berry had nine points and three assists against Wisconsin.
Berry's improvement was overshadowed by Jackson's rapid progress, but after missing nearly a month due to a groin injury in January, the Florida native was looking more comfortable at Roy Williams' preferred rapid pace at the close of the season. Berry also was one of Carolina's best long-range shooters at the end of his freshman season, making 10 of his final 20 three-point shots.
6. Kenny Williams might get some early minutes against some quality competition. The freshman guard is one of the few unknown quantities on an experienced 2015-16 team. The opportunity to grab some playing time against quality competition in Paige's absence could be valuable for the rookie.
7. It's very disappointing for Paige's sake that he won't be able to play in the game at Northern Iowa on Nov. 21, which was scheduled for the purpose of giving him a homecoming game. Those types of games are ones that Tar Heel players remember long after they're finished playing.
