University of North Carolina Athletics
Know Your Opponent: N.C. State
February 24, 2015 | Men's Basketball
North Carolina State (GoPack.com)
Rankings: No. 40 KenPom, NR AP
Location: Raleigh, N.C.
2014-15 Record: 16-11, 7-7 ACC
Carolina Series History (Last Meeting): Carolina leads 151-76 (UNC 81, NC State 79, Jan. 14, 2015, PNC Arena)
N.C. State has made toying with NCAA tournament projections an annual tradition. Three times under Mark Gottfried the Wolfpack has had a stretch in ACC play that seemed to be a death knell for the program's postseason hopes. And all three times, State has found a way to hear its name called on Selection Sunday.
The 2014-15 season reached a high point on Jan. 11, when the 'Pack torched Duke for 1.24 points per possession in an impressive 87-75 win in Raleigh. Carolina would hold on for a 2-point win at PNC Arena just three days later, but things still seemed stable after a win at Florida State on Jan. 17 pushed NCSU to 13-6 and 4-2 in the ACC.
Then came the annual swoon - losses in five of six, including an OT setback against Notre Dame when State led by as many as 18 and an 11-point home loss to Clemson. Only Trevor Lacey's buzzer beater at Georgia Tech prevented the Wolfpack from losing six in a row, but the postseason obituaries were prepared in earnest after a 4-point loss at Virginia dropped them to 14-11 and 5-7.
Count N.C. State out at your own peril, however. A 74-65 win at Louisville gave the 'Pack the signature road win lacking from their NCAA résumé before they held serve at home against Virginia Tech last Saturday. With an RPI of 48, a strength of schedule of 3 and top-25 wins over Duke and Louisville, NCSU is absolutely in the NCAA discussion. But after Carolina, only potential bad losses (in RPI terms) remain - at BC, at Clemson and the home finale against Syracuse.
Lacey and Ralston Turner still make the North Carolina State offense go, though the emergence of freshman forward Abdul-Malik Abu in conference play has boosted its rebounding efforts on both ends. Abu, who has replaced BeeJay Anya in the starting lineup, ranks sixth in the league in defensive rebounding percentage for a team that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in keeping opponents off the offensive glass. Abu combines with Anya, who still rates as the league's best shot blocker, and Kyle Washington, to create one of the more formidable defensive front lines in the league. That's vital, as the 'Pack ranks in the bottom half of the league in guarding the 3 and forcing turnovers.
Emotions will run high Tuesday in the second act of this old rivalry, with both teams in desperate need of a win. For Carolina, a victory is one step closer to a top-4 ACC Tournament seed and a double bye. For N.C. State, however, Tuesday is a chance to move firmly to the right side of the NCAA bubble.
