University of North Carolina Athletics
Know Your Opponent: N.C. State
January 15, 2016 | Men's Basketball
North Carolina State (GoPack.com)
Location: Raleigh, N.C.
Rankings: NCSU - No. 89 KenPom, NR AP; UNC - No. 8 KenPom, No. 5 AP
Records: NCSU - 10-7, 0-4 ACC; UNC - 15-2, 4-0 ACC
Carolina Series History (Last Meeting): Carolina leads 151-77 (NCSU 58, UNC 46, Feb. 24, 2015, Smith Center)
Writing off North Carolina State's NCAA tournament hopes has become an almost annual winter tradition in the Triangle. Last season may have been the most extreme example in recent history, as the Wolfpack found itself at 14-11 and 5-7 in the ACC after a 51-47 home loss to Virginia on Feb. 11. But starting with a nine-point win at Louisville on Valentines Day, the 'Pack closed the regular season with five wins in six, including a 12-point win over Carolina in the Smith Center. That, paired with a win over Pitt in the ACC Tournament, led to a postseason berth and an eventual spot in the Sweet 16 after upsetting top-seeded Villanova.
Fast forward one season and again the Wolfpack is on the ropes. Losers of four straight to open league play, NCSU sits at No. 89 in the KenPom rankings and No. 120 in the official NCAA RPI as of Friday. Their lone top-100 KenPom win came against LSU in Brooklyn back on Nov. 24. To compare, the 2015 edition started ACC play 3-1 with wins over Pitt and Duke as well as boasting solid non-conference victories over Richmond, Boise State, Tennessee and Louisiana Tech.
The early departures of Trevor Lacey and Kyle Washington plus the loss of Ralston Turner to graduation and the untimely injury to junior Terry Henderson have left the Wolfpack with a pretty thin bench. Only Lennard Freeman and Cody Martin see significant minutes behind the regular starting five, meaning that the toll on the group can be significant.
Junior guard Cat Barber shoulders the heaviest load, spending 95.2 percent of his available minutes on the floor, more than all but two players in the country. He leads the ACC in scoring at better than 22 points per game and also ranks among the league leaders in assists. With Lacey and Turner gone, Barber is shooting more from 3 than ever before, but his percentage has dipped to 31.6 percent after connecting on 38 percent (and 44.1% in ACC games) last season. He's made up for the lack of long distance production by getting to the line almost nine times per game and making 84.5 percent of his freebies.
Abdul-Malik Abu returns as NCSU's top rebounder and the sophomore is especially effective on the offensive glass. He is joined up front by junior Beejay Anya, one of the nation's top shot blockers. The long-armed Anya swats close to three shots per game despite standing just 6-9 and has slowly improved as an offensive weapon. Through 17 games, Anya is making 62.7 percent of his 2s but he attempts just three shots per game on average and is only a 33.9-percent free throw shooter. Foul trouble is also a concern for Anya, who has already fouled out of four games so far this season.
Volume shooters Caleb Martin and Maverick Rowan round out the North Carolina State starting five, and Rowan is the lone freshman seeing significant minutes for the 'Pack. The two have combined to attempt 245 3s in 17 games but have made just 32.2 percent from deep. Both players come in at 6-7, however, making NCSU one of the tallest teams in the country in terms of average height.
Last year's win in Chapel Hill helped North Carolina State turn the tide from the NIT to the Sweet 16. While the Wolfpack sits in a deeper hole in 2016, they have proven themselves to be a resilient team that is desperate for its first ACC win. Following Saturday's game, they face Pitt, Duke, Georgia Tech and Miami over the next two weeks. If the annual rally is coming, a strong performance Saturday against Carolina would be a good start.
