University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: The Rule Of Three
April 1, 2016 | Men's Basketball, Featured Writers, Adam Lucas
By Adam Lucas
No one knows exactly when he first said it. But he most definitely said it.
At some point during Dean Smith's Hall of Fame career, he first uttered the phrase, “It's hard to beat a good team three times.” That's remained ingrained in the collective Carolina fan base memory, reinforced by instances during Smith's legendary tenure that include:
1996, when the Tar Heels smacked Clemson twice, including a 33-point beatdown in Chapel Hill, and then lost to the Tigers, 75-73, in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals.
1993, when the eventual national champions dealt Georgia Tech a pair of double-digit losses during the regular season, but then watched the Jackets win the ACC Tournament with a 77-75 Bobby Cremins win in Charlotte.
1987, when Carolina was on the way to an undefeated ACC regular season and beat NC State by 18 and 17 points, then lost to Jim Valvano's team in the conference title game.
There are numerous other instances, and it's a cross-section of some of Smith's most frustrating losses (1984 and 1980 against Duke are also on the list). So it makes sense that the axiom would have endured. It's also worked in reverse fashion. Virginia had beaten Carolina twice during the regular season before the Tar Heels upended them in the 1981 Final Four. Duke had beaten Carolina twice during the 1991 regular season before Smith's team routed them in the ACC Tournament.
The saying becomes relevant again this week as the Tar Heels prepare to face Syracuse in the Final Four on Saturday evening. Jim Boeheim's club is definitely a good team. Carolina has beaten them twice during the regular season, including a 75-70 win just over a month ago.
But there's just one problem: since the turn of the century, it's not always true. We're throwing out the 2001-02 season, because, well, that wasn't a good Carolina team. Other than that, there have been eight instances of scenarios when the Tar Heels had the opportunity to beat a team for a third time. All eight times, they've converted the trifecta.
Most recently, it happened twice in the 2013 ACC Tournament, as Carolina completed the sweep of Maryland and Florida State. It also happened twice in 2012 (Maryland and NC State) and again in 2011 (Clemson), meaning the Tar Heels have beaten a good team five times in the past five seasons. All five of those opponents finished above .500 and four advanced to the postseason.
Of course, it's also happened in reverse. On two occasions, an opponent had the chance to beat Carolina for a third time. Both times, they succeeded. The 2010 team lost three times to Georgia Tech, and the 2013 club was swept by Miami.
In total, then, there have been ten chances this century for either Carolina or an opponent to complete a three-game sweep. All ten times, they've done it, and just two of those examples were one-possession games. You'd expect the overall number to decrease with the expanded ACC and the loss of the double round-robin; there simply won't be as many chances to play a team three times.
The Tar Heels still have a formidable task facing them in the national semifinals against the well-documented Syracuse zone. What might surprise Dean Smith, though, is that Carolina might have some recent history on its side.
