University of North Carolina Athletics
Know Your Opponent: Virginia Tech
January 26, 2017 | Men's Basketball
Virginia Tech (HokieSports.com)
Location: Blacksburg, Va.
Rankings: VT - No. 48 KenPom, NR AP; UNC - No. 8 KenPom, No. 9 AP
Records: VT - 15-4, 4-3 ACC; UNC - 18-3, 6-1 ACC
Carolina Series History (Last Meeting): UNC leads 66-13 (UNC 75, Virginia Tech 70, Jan. 24, 2016, Cassell Coliseum)
The Buzz Williams revolution in Blacksburg has been swift and successful, as the former Marquette boss has taken a program from the depths of irrelevance to the verge of the NCAA tournament for the first time in a decade. After parting ways with Seth Greenberg following the 2012 season, Virginia Tech cratered under James Johnson, going 22-41 and 6-30 in the ACC over two woeful years. The Hokies finished 10-8 in the league in Williams' second season, but an RPI of 80 effectively doomed any NCAA hopes in 2016.
Fast forward a year and VT is right in the mix with an RPI of 37 and KenPom top-50 wins over Michigan, Duke and Clemson. But like most major conference teams with questionable non-conference credentials (NC SOS of 286), Virginia Tech's postseason hopes will come down to how the Hokies perform over the season's final two months.
Offensively, Tech is one of the better shooting teams in the league and the Hokies feature a balanced lineup with five players averaging at least 10 points per game. Leading the way is senior Zach LeDay, a 6-7 forward who makes 56 percent of his 2s and almost 76 percent of his free throws. That second number is especially important as LeDay has already attempted 111 free throws through 19 games. His frontcourt mate Chris Clarke, who missed last year's UNC game with an injury, is even more adept at getting to the line (his FT rate of 69.3 ranks 25th nationally), though Clarke is only a 66 percent foul shooter. He is one of three Hokies making better than 60 percent of his 2s, however, joining Seth Allen and reserve big man Khadim Sy.
Allen, a 6-1 scoring guard who is in his second year at VT after transferring from Maryland, recently forced his way into Williams' starting lineup. The veteran sharpshooter has made 63 percent of his 2s and 55 percent of his 3s in ACC play. Allen suffered an injury in the blowout loss at NC State and missed the loss at Florida State, and it's no coincidence that those are two of the Hokies' three worst offensive performances in league play. Junior college transfer Ty Outlaw has also been a recent addition to the starting lineup and gives Tech a third 40-percent shooter from deep, joining Allen and sophomore Ahmed Hill, who missed last season with a knee injury.
While LeDay and Clarke have been capable rebounders, the Hokies have struggled on the boards in 2017. In conference play, they rank last in offensive rebounding (24.7 percent compared to 43.9 for UNC) and ninth in defensive rebounding (30.8). They also struggle to create turnovers, ranking 226th nationally in defensive turnover percentage and 335th in steal percentage. This, and a basically league average turnover rate on offense, means that Virginia Tech trails everyone but NC State and Boston College in John Gasaway's Shot Volume Index.
Virginia Tech has positioned itself well to make a return to the NCAA tournament, but to navigate the tough road ahead (pun intended, as five of its next seven are on the road), the Hokies will have to rely on their outstanding ability to put the ball in the basket. Which, as far as abilities go, is a pretty good one to have.
