Carmichael Comments: Crunch Time

Check the ACC standings this morning with two games to go for the majority of ACC teams, and you'll see a gigantic cluster of teams occupying spots three through eight. Six different squads have a record with five or six ACC losses. They're all safely in the NCAA Tournament, so the bubble is not a factor or subplot in this week's slate of games, just a classic, old-fashioned conference race.

Based on tiebreakers, Carolina would hold the No. 8 seed for the ACC Tournament if it tipped off at this moment.

But get a few results going one way or the other, combined with two UNC wins? You could see Carolina as high as the No. 3 seed, and in the precious double-bye territory. Only having to win three games in three days to win the ACC Tournament is a massive advantage compared to needing four wins to bring home a title in Greensboro, and the seed would be an enormous achievement for Carolina after the four-game slide that took place from Jan. 28-Feb. 11.

Nearly every scenario that would vault the Tar Heels into that upper-class area of the standings requires a pair of wins in the upcoming week against Boston College and Duke – a two-game, two-win Thursday-to-Sunday run that Carolina head coach Courtney Banghart often refers to as "sweep week."

"Sweep week" might come behind only "stacking wins" on the list of favorite phrases of the Tar Heels' fifth-year head coach, but she's onto something with the concept. Those of us in the media, me included, have a propensity to fixate on the ACC standings as the season unfolds, making blanket statements on who's hot and who's not merely based on their current place in the conference. The truth is that due to when you play your toughest opponents, you never quite know how teams stack up … until the end of the season. So being able to simply build up your bank of wins, which Carolina did with a 7-1 ACC start, is so, so critical come tournament time.

But now, with one week to go, the standings are the truest reflection of where teams stack up among their ACC peers. Given the strength of the league, it's no surprise that six teams are so tightly bunched. Honestly, the surprise is that a Virginia Tech team that has to play Carolina, Duke, and NC State twice each has created so much separation and clinched the No. 1 seed with a week to go. While Carolina doesn't have any tiebreaker over Virginia Tech, they won't need one with the Hokies secure atop the league. Carolina does have tiebreakers over teams like Louisville and Notre Dame, with a tiebreaker possible if not likely against NC State, too. The permutations and possibilities are too numerous to list here just yet, but to reiterate a previous point, it all starts with winning two this week, and that starts Thursday at Boston College.

"When we go on the road, the UNC game matters to everybody," Banghart said, referring to how BC can redeem a recent skid with a win.

March begins Friday, and Thursday is "Leap Day." The postseason is almost here. In the ACC, though, you could argue that postseason begins now. The standings have settled, and the push to a championship is upon us. It's crunch time.

Here's what else caught my eye this week …

Collective Effort
Thursday's win over NC State was one of the best displays of balance for the Tar Heels in recent memory. Coach Banghart studied the box score just after the final buzzer, and an offensive trend jumped out to her quickly.

"We've got five in double figures and one of them is not Deja Kelly," Banghart said. "But she had eight assists."

Carolina had not had a game with five players scoring 10 or more points and Kelly not among the quintet since Nov. 16, 2022 against South Carolina State. Kelly, however, did not play that game, or else she'd have scored 10 fairly easily. Reframing the feat, Kelly had been a part of every game she played in since her arrival on campus in which the Tar Heels had put five in double figures in scoring.

Kelly's eight-assist, zero-turnover, and "only" nine-point game was no accident. Banghart and her staff knew that NC State would pay extreme attention to Kelly on the defensive end, and with her in the point guard role for this stretch run of the season, it would be up to the senior to distribute to other players.

"We really talked about having to create for other people tonight because of how they were going to load to her," Banghart explained.

Kelly found a variety of teammates, including the trio of Lexi Donarski, Ali Zelaya, and Indya Nivar, who went a combined 11-for-20 (55%) from three with each hitting at least two long-range shots. Inside the arc, Maria Gakdeng was 6-for-8 and had one of her cleanest games finishing around the rim.

"We were really sure of how we wanted to play and they did it," a victorious Banghart beamed.

A-Z For Three
Ali Zelaya will be honored on her Senior Day on Sunday, the culmination of four seasons of dedication, leadership, and commitment to the Tar Heels. We recently profiled both Ali and her classmate Anya Poole on Holding Court and in this column and talked extensively about how both players maintain a mindset of being ready when their number is called. Since both have a similar raw skillset, matchups are used to dictate Carolina's post rotation on a game-in, game-out basis. Zelaya has played a key role against NC State through the years, a byproduct of her length and ability to make opposing post players uncomfortable at the rim. In the first game of the year between the two in Raleigh, her 10 minutes played marked her most in over a month. The second game in Carmichael Arena was the first time all year Zelaya played more than half the game, stepping on the court for 22 of the game's 40 minutes.

But her contributions were not limited to the defensive end, as Zelaya caught fire offensively against the Wolfpack, hitting four of her seven three-point attempts. The shooting streak doubled her previous career high in made threes in a game and surpassed her old career mark of 10 points scored.

"I met with her Tuesday (before the game)," Banghart said of her senior. "I told her we were going to need her because of this matchup."

Per usual, Banghart said her veteran player was amenable to whatever her role would be on that given day.

"The kid is always ready," Banghart said. "She deserves it."

GameDay Spotlight
Sunday's game in Blacksburg featured some special guests prior to tip for the Tar Heels and Hokies: the ESPN College GameDay crew. The popular show, which expanded to include a women's basketball version a few years ago, made its first-ever appearance at an ACC women's basketball game. While the Hokies' successful senior class being celebrated on Senior Day was the impetus for the visit, the fact that Carolina was the opponent and the implications of the game were definite factors.

With the show airing 11 a.m.-noon for a 2:00 p.m. tip, the Tar Heel players and staff were busy preparing for the game and did not partake in the show themselves, but the magnitude of the moment was not lost on Banghart.

"To be one of the two programs in the ACC featured on College GameDay for the first time ever, it matters," Banghart said.

Up Next
It's hard to believe, but we've arrived at the final week of the regular season. Just two games remain for the Tar Heels before postseason play, one at home and one away. The final road game of the regular season sends Carolina to Chestnut Hill, Mass., and Boston College for the first time since the calendar year 2021, when the Tar Heels opened the 2022 ACC slate with a road win over the Eagles just before Christmas. It's been a tough season for BC, with the Eagles' last win coming back on Jan. 18 against Wake Forest. Multiple projected rotation players have not been able to play this season, leaving a young, and at times thin, BC team to compete against the ACC's best. The Eagles played Louisville within two on Feb. 15, and fell to Notre Dame in their most recent action despite a 25-point, 15-rebound effort from senior guard Dontavia Waggoner. Thursday's game tips at 7:00 p.m., with Tar Heel Sports Network coverage beginning at 6:30 p.m. with the Reeds Jewelers Pregame Show. As always, hear the broadcast worldwide for free on the Varsity Network App from Learfield, GoHeels.com, or the GoHeels app. The game will air locally in the Triangle on 97.9 FM/1360 AM WCHL, the flagship station of Carolina women's basketball.

Then on Sunday, the Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils will play their second matchup of the season and 108th in the storied history of the rivalry. Carolina will be searching for a season split after the Blue Devils earned an overtime victory on Feb. 11 at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Carolina has won two straight at Carmichael Arena against Duke, and can make it three straight home wins over their rivals with a victory this Sunday. As part of the gameday, Carolina will honor seniors Ali Zelaya, Alyssa Ustby, Deja Kelly, and Anya Poole for their contributions and triumphs over the last four years. Sunday's tip is set for 4:00 p.m., and we'll be on air for the Reeds Jewelers Pregame Show at 3:30 p.m. As always, hear the broadcast worldwide for free on the Varsity Network App from Learfield, GoHeels.com, or the GoHeels app. The game will air locally in the Triangle on 97.9 FM/1360 AM WCHL, the flagship station of Carolina women's basketball.

Additionally, the last Holding Court with Courtney Banghart tapes on Tuesday, Mar. 5 at noon at the Sheraton Chapel Hill. As a reminder, the show is open to the public, and we hope to see you there! If you can't make it, catch the show on the Tar Heel Voices Podcast Channel or on Wednesday night, Mar. 6, at 7:00 p.m. on WCHL 97.9 FM/1360 AM.

That's all for now. Go Heels!

-Matt