Carmichael Comments: NCAA Birmingham 2 Regional Preview

Carmichael Comments: NCAA Birmingham 2 Regional Preview
Vol. 7, No. 16
By: Matt Krause (@MattKrausePxP)

How sweet it is, Carolina fans. The Tar Heels are headed to their 19th Sweet 16 in program history and second in the last four seasons. Carolina's 58-47 defensive clinic against West Virginia on Monday night at Carmichael Arena earned the Tar Heels a trip to Birmingham, Ala., and Legacy Arena, the site of the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight of the Birmingham 2 region.

The opponents are rather familiar: one an ACC opponent that just happens to be Carolina's biggest rival, another a team that the Tar Heels have seen twice in the postseason in recent years, and the other a classic opponent and a potential renewal of a highly-contested dormant series.

Let's get to know this week's opponents a bit closer:
(2) Duke Blue Devils
2024-25: 28-7, 14-4 ACC (Won ACC Title Game over NC State, 76-62)
NCAA Tournament: Beat Lehigh, 86-25, in First Round & Oregon, 59-53, in Second Round
Series Record: UNC leads series, 56-54
Last Meeting: Duke wins, 68-53, in Durham on Feb. 27
Coach Banghart Record: UNC leads series, 6-5

For the first time in what's soon to be a 111-game series, Carolina and Duke will meet in the NCAA Tournament. It's only the second Carolina-Duke basketball game in the NCAA Tournament in either gender – the first one was quite memorable for folks in Chapel Hill. Carolina and Duke will play for the third time in a season for second time in the Courtney Banghart era, having also met in the ACC Tournament in 2023. Now, Duke is the only ACC team that Carolina plays even twice in a season, and the two teams split their meetings this year. Carolina gutted out a 53-46 overtime win at Carmichael Arena on Jan. 9, and Duke won 68-53 on Feb. 27 in Cameron Indoor Stadium. Carolina, however, played that game without Alyssa Ustby and Reniya Kelly, and both are back healthy and making an impact in the postseason run. Duke hasn't lost since that game, winning the ACC Tournament for the first time under fifth-year Head Coach Kara Lawson. Duke is led in scoring by ACC Rookie of the Year F Toby Fournier, who averages 13.4 PPG off the Duke bench. Fournier, however, did not play Sunday in the NCAA Second Round game against Oregon due to what was described as an "illness." Other names to watch are G Ashlon Jackson, who chips in 12.5 PPG, and ACC Tournament MVP G Oluchi Okananwa, who scores 10.2 PPG and swipes nearly two steals per game. Duke and Carolina are the top two teams in the ACC in scoring defense, allowing 57.1 and 57.6 points per game, respectively. Their matchups in recent years have certainly borne that strength out. Every possession matters in this rivalry, especially in the Sweet 16.

With a win, Carolina will face South Carolina or Maryland on Sunday in the Elite Eight.
(1) South Carolina Gamecocks
2024-25: 32-3, 15-1 SEC (Won SEC Title Game over Texas, 64-45)
NCAA Tournament: Beat Tennessee Tech, 108-48, in First Round & Indiana, 64-53, in Second Round
Series Record: Series tied, 11-11
Last Meeting: South Carolina wins, 88-41, in Columbia, S.C. on Mar. 24, 2024 (NCAA Second Round)
Coach Banghart Record: South Carolina leads series, 3-0

It hasn't been smooth sailing from the start for South Carolina this season, the 17th under iconic Head Coach Dawn Staley. The Gamecocks had won all but one game since the start of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, winning the NCAA Championship twice in 2022 and 2024. A season ago, the Gamecocks rolled to a 38-0 record and cut down the nets in Cleveland, beating Carolina in the NCAA Tournament Second Round along the way. A matchup in the Elite Eight between the pair would be the third NCAA Tournament clash since 2022, with South Carolina also winning 69-61 in the 2022 Sweet 16 (the Gamecocks' lone single-digit victory in the run to the championship that season). But this year, South Carolina was rolled 77-62 at UCLA just before Thanksgiving, and lost again 66-62 at Texas on Feb. 9. Just a week after that, UConn came to Columbia and dominated in an 87-58 win. But that UConn win seemed to ignite South Carolina, who went from having doubts over their 1-seed status to throttling Texas to win the SEC Tournament. They did struggle against Indiana last week in the Second Round, but still won by 11 to advance to an 11th straight Sweet 16. South Carolina does not boast a single player on any of the three AP All-American teams, but G MiLaysia Fulwiley (11.8 PPG) was named AP All-American Honorable Mention and the SEC Sixth Woman of the Year. Freshman F Joyce Edwards (13.2 PPG) leads the team in scoring, and was named to the All-SEC First Team. Plenty of familiar names – F Chloe Kitts, G Te-Hina Paopao, F Sania Feagin, G Bree Hall, and G Raven Johnson – comprise the starting five for the Gamecocks. Is the third time in the NCAA Tournament the charm for the Tar Heels against South Carolina?

(4) Maryland Terrapins
2024-25: 25-7, 13-5 Big Ten (Lost in Big Ten Quarterfinals vs. Michigan, 98-71)
NCAA Tournament: Beat Norfolk State, 82-69 in First Round & Alabama, 111-108 (2OT), in Second Round
Series Record: UNC leads series, 39-37
Last Meeting: UNC wins, 73-70, in Greensboro on Mar. 7, 2014 (ACC Quarterfinals)
Coach Banghart Record: Maryland leads series, 3-0
Last Meeting: Maryland beats Princeton, 77-57, in Raleigh on Mar. 16, 2018 (NCAA First Round)

Carolina's former ACC rival Maryland is the other possible Elite Eight opponent. Brenda Frese is a College Park icon, having coached the Terrapins since 2002, and is in her 23rd season at Maryland this year. This season is Maryland's 16th 25-win campaign under Frese, earning the Terps the right to host. Maryland nearly saw their tournament run come to a close in the Second Round, but erased a 17-point deficit to outlast Alabama by three in double overtime. Maryland went 26-for-31 from the foul line in the game, a microcosm of a season that sees them second nationally with nearly 17.5 free throws made per game. It's part of an offense that puts up 81 points per game, 11th in the nation. G Shyanne Sellers (14.5 PPG) was a First Team All-Big Ten selection, and ranks second on the team in scoring while also dishing out over four assists per game. G Kaylene Smikle (18.0 PPG) leads the team in scoring and was picked to the Second Team in the All-Big Ten awards. The duo combined for 54 points in the Alabama win. A Carolina-Maryland matchup would be the first since Maryland's final year in the ACC in 2014.

Broadcast Information

Coverage of all of Carolina's NCAA Tournament games can be found on the Tar Heel Sports Network from Learfield. Friday's game against Duke is set for a 2:30 p.m. ET tipoff, so we'll be on the air at 2:00 p.m. ET with the Reeds Jewelers Pregame Show. Catch the call worldwide for free on all of our normal outlets: the Varsity Network app from Learfield, GoHeels.com, or the GoHeels app, as well as on WCHL 97.9 FM/1360 AM.

Sunday's Elite Eight matchup will tip at 1:00 p.m. ET, with a 12:30 p.m. ET airtime for the Reeds Jewelers Pregame Show. Catch the call worldwide for free on all of our normal outlets: the Varsity Network app from Learfield, GoHeels.com, or the GoHeels app, as well as on WCHL 97.9 FM/1360 AM.

That's all for now. Go Heels!
-Matt