University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag Nov. 28
November 28, 2006 | Men's Basketball
Nov. 28, 2006
By Adam Lucas
First things first: thanks to Tim Crothers' sports journalism class for a fun discussion last night. The good news: there were some really sharp students in the class. The bad news: there were some really sharp students in the class...and it made me a little nervous they might take my job.
One piece of bad news--the Charlotte book signing for The Best Game Ever on Thursday has been postponed. We'll have more information on a rescheduled date in the future.
If you've been putting off buying single-game tickets, you've almost procrastinated too long. There's only one game left for purchase, and it'll be gone soon.
Good news for statheads. The Tuesday Talking Points are back this week. We've got some interesting stats for you this week, including an eye-opening one about Brandan Wright's hot start.
If you submitted a question and don't see it answered here, don't forget to tune into the Tar Heel Sports Network pregame show. The crew, including Jones Angell and Eric Montross, answer a handful of questions before each game. And here's some exciting news: tomorrow night before the Ohio State game we'll be addressing the headband question, something that has been a very popular topic with Mailbag readers.
On with the questions...
Against Gonzaga, Carolina shot 18 out of 30 from the foul line. I have noticed over the years Carolina has not been the best at free throw percentage overall or in the ACC. Which Carolina teams have had the best team free throw percentage?
Jon Gladston
Melville, NY
Long-time readers are nodding and smiling right now. Free throws are one of the most popular Mailbag topics of all time.
After falling below 70 percent from the line in the previous four seasons (and 8 of the previous 11), Carolina has eclipsed 70 percent the last two seasons. At 70.8% in 2006, the Tar Heels ranked fifth in the league. Carolina hasn't led the league in free throw shooting since 1988. In the ACC era, eight Tar Heels teams have led the league in free throw shooting; only one of those teams (1981) made the Final Four. Over the last 11 seasons, only two ACC teams that won the team free throw shooting race also won the league's regular season championship.
For the record, only five teams in Carolina history have made at least 75 percent of their free throws. Those teams have a combined four NCAA Tournament victories and none advanced to the Final Four. The all-time best shooting teams are the 1966 squad that made 78.3% of their charity tosses and the 1984 team that equaled that mark.
The Tar Heels currently rank 7th in the league at 68.5%.
Was Tyler hit by a delayed SI cover jinx in the Gonzaga game? How have other Tar Heel players fared shortly after appearing on the cover of America's most famous sports magazine?
Lee Gilliam
Zebulon, NC
Lee is on a roll with interesting questions in the early season. Let's check it out. We only checked covers with Carolina as a primary focus (in other words, those pre-NCAA Tournament collage covers don't count).
March 17, 1975/Phil Ford: Ford and the Tar Heels earned the cover for their defeat of NC State in the ACC Tournament championship game. They won two games in the NCAA Tournament before falling to Boston College in the round of 16. Ford averaged almost 20 points per game and handed out 19 assists in NCAA play. Curse verdict: No.
March 12, 1979/Dudley Bradley: The Tar Heels again earned the cover for an ACC title, this time a 71-63 win over Duke. But before the calendar even flipped to the cover date on the issue, Carolina was a victim of Black Sunday and an opening-game NCAA defeat at the hands of Penn. Curse verdict: Yes.
Nov. 30, 1981/Dean Smith and four starters: The fifth starter, who didn't earn the cover, was named Michael Jordan. As he told the producers of Legends In Blue, however, he didn't expect to be on the cover as a freshman and wasn't miffed about the "slight." The Tar Heels won their first 13 games of the season, finished 32-2, and won the national title. Curse verdict: We should all be so cursed.
March 29, 1982/Sam Perkins: This was Sports Illustrated's pre-Final Four issue. Perkins was terrific against Houston and Georgetown, notching 25 points and 10 rebounds against the Cougars and 10 and 7 against the Hoyas. Curse verdict: No.
April 5, 1982/James Worthy: Worthy declared for the NBA Draft after his junior season, was the first overall pick in the draft, won three NBA titles, and was elected to the Basketball Hall of Fame. Curse verdict: It would've been nice to have had Worthy during the 1983 season, but his career credentials mean the curse failed.
Nov. 28, 1983/Perkins and Jordan: Is there an expiration date on the curse? In the immediate aftermath of this issue, the Tar Heels won their first 21 games of the season. Both Jordan and Perkins were unanimous first-team All-ACC selections. But after an ill-timed injury to freshman point guard derailed the undefeated express, Carolina lost two of their three final games, including a heartbreaker to Indiana in the NCAA Tournament. Curse verdict: Not really.
March 26, 1984/Perkins: Here's the 1984 cover Carolina would like to forget. Perkins scored 26 points against Indiana but was an uncharacteristic 8-of-17 from the field. Once again, the Tar Heels were eliminated before the calendar turned to the cover date of the issue. Curse verdict: Yes.
March 2, 1987/J.R. Reid: Reid made second-team All-ACC Tournament, but Carolina lost a stunning championship game to NC State. Two weekends later, they were eliminated by Rony Seikaly and Syracuse in the NCAA regional finals. Reid shot just 1-of-6 in the ACC quarterfinals and 4-of-8 in the semifinals before rebounding with a solid game in the title game. In the NCAA Tournament, he had back-to-back games of 27 and 31 points (as a freshman!) before shooting 7-of-14 against the Orangemen. Curse verdict: This one could go either way.
March 8, 1993/Brian Reese: Reese earned first-team All-ACC Tournament honors and the Tar Heels eventually won the national title. Sure, he missed the dunk against Cincinnati, but you can't be perfect all the time. Curse verdict: No.
April 12, 1993/Eric Montross: The curse doesn't really apply to post-championship covers, and it certainly doesn't apply to nice guys like Eric. Curse verdict: No.
March 6, 1995/Jerry Stackhouse: Stackhouse earned first-team All-ACC Tournament honors before the Tar Heels were zapped by Randolph Childress. He led Carolina to the Final Four before an unfortunate injury limited him in the Final Four game against Arkansas and led to a Carolina defeat. Curse verdict: If the injury had happened closer to the cover date, we could see it. But it happened a month later.
Dec. 22, 1997/Dean Smith: One of the most indisputable Sportsman of the Year selections in the magazine's history. A legend then and a legend now. Curse verdict: No.
March 16, 1998/Vince Carter (regional cover): Carter scored in double figures in all five NCAA Tournament games and was perhaps Carolina's most consistent player in the Final Four loss to Utah. Curse verdict: No.
Nov. 22, 2004/Rashad McCants: McCants hits just 7-of-14 field goals and Carolina loses the season opener to Santa Clara. Curse verdict: Short term, yes. Long term, a national title trumps everything.
April 11, 2005/Sean May: Again, post-championship covers are difficult to curse. SI loves using post-title cover shots of Tar Heel big men from the state of Indiana. Curse verdict: No.
How are the match-ups for the ACC Big Ten Challenge determined?
Ray Edwards
Greenville, NC
In the days of the ACC-Big East Challenge, the answer to this question was easy: it was based almost entirely on preseason predictions. But with ESPN playing a major role in the ACC-Big Ten version of the event, it's become a bit more complicated. Matchups are generally determined by mixing a formula of preseason predictions, television appeal, and which teams played at home the previous year. ESPN and the respective leagues partner to combine those qualities and come up with an event with as much national appeal as possible.
What future preseason tournaments are the Heels involved in? I was wondering if they are in Maui or the Coaches Versus Cancer Tournament in the next couple of years.
Will Fitzgerald
Duncansville, PA (Formerly from Roxboro, NC)
One of the best things about following the Tar Heels under Roy Williams is this: Williams loves Maui. As long as he's in charge and as long as there's a Maui Invitational, Carolina will play in it every four years. Their last trip came in 2004; that means they'll be back in the islands over Thanksgiving 2008. Expect a stop to play Cal-Santa Barbara on the way to Maui. Also, expect to see my wife at Maui's Waterfront Restaurant every night of the tournament. In 2004 we ate there three times. I'm willing to do that again if it leads to a national championship. She recommends the stuffed mushroom caps, I recommend the opah prepared a la meuniere (sort of like Jessica Simpson in the ubiquitous television commercial, I don't know what that means but I want it).
NCAA rules regarding exempt tournaments have been relaxed. The organization followed a two-in-four rule, limiting a team to two exempt events every four years. But now the two-in-four rule has been scrapped, so the Tar Heels can participate in one of the events every season. They're a marquee name, so every fledgling tournament wants to add them to their bracket. Next season, Carolina will participate in the relatively new Las Vegas Invitational with a field that includes Louisville and Creighton.
Brownlow's Down Low
I love Carolina basketball and think the team's decades-long record of success is truly an amazing achievement. But I have a suspicion that among teams that have played in at least four Final Fours, it can be argued the Heels have struggled in Final Four play.
UNC has been to 16 Final Fours. They've won four (an 8-0 record); lost in four championship games (a 4-4 record); and were defeated in eight semi-finals (an 0-8 record). That's a total of 12-12 (excluding the old consolation games played between semi-final losers up to the early '70s). It's a mediocre performance at best, and doesn't capture the fact that many of their semifinal losses were quite lopsided and/or came when they were heavily favored ('67, '69, 72, 91, 98).
I'm sure UCLA's Final Four record far surpasses everyone else, and suspect Kentucky and Indiana have fared significantly better than either UNC or Duke. Can your crack research staff put numbers to this?
Kaler HallGreenville, NC
Lauren writes: I would like to include consolation games in my count, if only because the games were a part of college basketball from 1946-1982. So including consolations, Carolina's record in the Final Four would be 13-14.
Duke's Final Four record is 14-11. Without consolation games, Duke is 12-11. NC State actually has the best winning percentage in the Final Four of all Tobacco Road teams at 5-1, the lone loss coming in 1950. Without a consolation win in 1950, the Pack is still 4-1. Maryland is 2-1 after reaching its first Final Four in 2001 and losing to Duke, only to follow that up in 2002 with a national championship.
Interesting fact - all pre-expansion ACC teams except Clemson have been to at least one Final Four. None of the post-expansion teams (Boston College, Miami, Virginia Tech) have ever been to a Final Four.
There are plenty of teams that have multiple Final Four appearances without a win, although the most appearances without one Final Four win is LSU with six appearances (including last season) and no win.
Right now, Connecticut has the best Final Four winning percentage at 4-0, as the Huskies have been to two Final Fours (1999, 2004) and won both national championships. Loyola (Ill.) is another team that hasn't lost, but it only appeared in one Final Four in 1963 and won it all. San Francisco also has a respectable winning percentage - though they have not been in the Final Four since Carolina won it all in 1957, their record is 5-1.
You're right about Indiana and UCLA. After losing twice in the Final Four in 1962, the Bruins did not lose in the Final Four again until 1974 on their way to amassing 10 national titles between 1964-1975. The Bruins resumed their success in 1995, winning the national title and making it to the championship game last season to bring their total Final Four record to 26-6. Indiana has been to eight Final Fours and its record is a very efficient 12-3. Kentucky has one of the better records at 17-6 over its 13 Final Four appearances.
Some of the losses most likely stick in the collective craw of Carolina fans (I know I'll never forget '98) because Carolina was "supposed" to win. As NCAA's March Madness has taught us, the best team on paper isn't always the team that will win in the tournament, especially with parity increasing. If your shots aren't falling, and the team you're playing can't miss, generally, you will lose.
Perhaps the Tar Heels have not been as efficient as other schools in the Final Four, but they are still tied with UCLA in the national lead for Final Four appearances with 16. I'd say a 25% conversion rate (4 of 16) is not too shabby.
Adam Lucas's third book on Carolina basketball, The Best Game Ever, chronicles the 1957 national championship season and is available now. His previous books include Going Home Again, focusing on Roy Williams's return to Carolina, and Led By Their Dreams, a collaboration with Steve Kirschner and Matt Bowers on the 2005 championship team. To submit a Mailbag question, click here.
