University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag Dec. 19
December 19, 2006 | Men's Basketball
Dec. 19, 2006
By Adam Lucas
We're going to have a special version of the Mailbag for next week: we want to hear your favorite Carolina basketball-themed Christmas memory. Maybe it's a specific game around the holidays or maybe it's a specific Tar Heel-related gift you received (or gave) that made a big impression. Whatever it might be, let us know and we'll print the best responses in next week's edition.
I was wondering how the productivity of Ty Lawson and Deon Thompson has been affected since they dropped the headbands. Are there any other Tar Heels, whose game has significantly improved or worsened with the addition/subtraction of a headband?
The only comparable case I can think of is when Vince Carter wore protective goggles because of an eye infection, and Ed Cota wore them too in solidarity. As I remember, both had bad games with the goggles and they were gone by the next game. Too bad -- it was a sweet look (any photos in the mailbag archive?)
Andrew Davis
altimore, MD
OK, here's the deal. Lauren is going to personally burn every headband in Chapel Hill if we don't make this the last headband question until one of two things happens: 1. The headbands reappear for a game or 2. The season ends. Is that a deal? And don't forget you can find the answer to what happened to the headbands by reading this story.
The stats: with the headbands (4 games) Lawson was averaging 9.8 points per game and shooting 63.6% from the field. Pretty good, right? But how about this--his assist/turnover ratio was below 1, at 0.91. Fellow freshman Deon Thompson was averaging 3.3 points per game, 2.8 rebounds per game, and shooting 41.7% from the field.
Since removing the headbands for the game against Tennessee, Lawson is still averaging 9.8 points per game and is shooting a still-respectable 51.7% from the floor. But his assist/turnover ratio has dramatically improved, and it stands at a very impressive 3.33 over the last five games. For the season as a whole, he's now over 2:1, which is impressive for a true freshman.
Thompson, meanwhile, is averaging 3.3 points per game without his headband, 3 rebounds per game, and shooting 55.5% from the field.
In all seriousness, both players have made significant strides over the last month. Thompson would be starting at many other schools, and Lawson's numbers through his first 9 games look eerily similar to another Carolina point guard who played a big role early in his freshman season:
Raymond Felton (through 9 games as a freshman): 2.0 A/TO, 7.1 APG, 9.3 PPG.
One big difference: Felton was carrying a heavier offensive load. He took 10 or more shots 3 times in his first 9 games (Lawson has yet to do that) and was shooting just 35.7% through 9 games on his way to a 39.8 percentage as a freshman.
Whatever happened to Joe Forte? I believe he made the Boston Celtics after he left the Tar Heels. I rarely hear anything about him anymore.
I thought Joe could have been one of the top 5 scorers ever at Carolina if he had stayed his full 4 years. Where would Joe Forte rank in Carolina scoring history if, his career scoring average (total points) was projected out for 4 years and assuming a typical improvement each year? I am not sure what a typical improvement might be so any estimate is fine.
Wayne
Martinsburg, WV
Forte is one of the most popular "Whatever happened to...?" questions in Mailbag history. He's currently playing in Italy with Montepaschi Siena. He may not speak much Italian, but he has plenty to talk about with two of his teammates: former Clemson standout Terrell McIntyre and former Maryland star Lonny Baxter. If you're well-versed in Italian, you can check out the team's official site. That site also has a good Forte photo gallery.
There's absolutely no question Forte would have been one of Carolina's top five scorers if he had stayed four years. In just two seasons, he amassed 1,290 points, an average of 645 per season. It's difficult to factor in improvement in scoring, because much of it depends on the talent surrounding a player, the type of offense employed, and other unpredictable factors. It's certain, though, that Forte's return would have prevented the most ignominious season in Carolina history--the 8-20 campaign of 2001-02. Had he continued his pace of 645 points per season, Forte would have ended his career with 2,580 career points, smashing Phil Ford's Carolina record by almost 300 points (of course, if you're going to start extrapolating stats to four years, you'd substantially change the career scoring list, as members of the top ten Lennie Rosenbluth, Charles Scott, Larry Miller, Antawn Jamison, and Bob Lewis would all see big jumps). Had he just stayed one more season and tacked on another 645 points, his three-year career total of 1,935 would have ranked eighth all-time at Carolina, just behind Antawn Jamison and just ahead of Brad Daugherty.
How impressive were Forte's scoring totals and how important was he to the offense of his Carolina teams? In just two years, he scored more points than standouts Vince Carter (three years), Raymond Felton (three years), and Sean May (three years). His career points per game average (18.7) is substantially higher than a pair of two-year players who often receive more attention from Carolina fans--Jerry Stackhouse (15.7) and Rasheed Wallace (13.0).
I do not understand how people keep saying that Tyler is having a bad game, when half of the team is concentrating on him on defense. Teams will continue to play him that way more this year, I never understood why they did not last year. He may have to sacrifice his scoring and rebounding this year for the team to win anyway. I feel sad when everyone is on his case, because no one plays any harder than he does. Carolina players failed to get him the ball in the last game when he was open, that opening is only for a second and they must be aware of it.
Paul Norman
King, NC
Which people are saying that? Are they saying it anywhere in the vicinity of Tyler Hansbrough himself? It's doubtful.
Hansbrough's freshman numbers: 18.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 57% FG, 73.9% FT, 8.2 FTA/game
Hansbrough's sophomore numbers: 18.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 54% FG, 71.6% FT, 8.2 FTA/game
Do those numbers look similar to anyone else? And don't forget to add in the fact that he's averaging about 1.5 minutes per game less this season than he did last season. Plus, consider that his numbers went up in ACC play last year, so there's still the possibility his sophomore numbers will increase. So how come last year Hansbrough was an All-American and this year there seems to be a general undercurrent of feeling that his play needs improvement?
Maybe it's his passing, right? That's been mentioned in several emails--Hansbrough needs to improve his passing out of double-teams. That's true, but it was also true last year. He ended his freshman season with just 40 assists and 77 turnovers. Through 9 games as a sophomore, he has 18 assists and 17 turnovers. That's a significant improvement (through 9 games last year he had 10 assists and 20 turnovers), and of course it helps that he's surrounded by more talent this season.
Last year, Hansbrough was a revelation. He scored 21 points in his first college game and went on to become the first Tar Heel ever to earn first-team All-ACC honors. It's hard for anyone to follow up that type of season and please everyone, because once you've been a revelation, what's left to accomplish? Individually, not much. But remember that Hansbrough returned to college because he felt there were some team goals remaining. This is someone who stared into his locker, unspeaking, for 10 minutes after the George Mason game. There are a lot of funny stories about Hansbrough and he has one of the most unique personalities in Carolina history. But his bottom line is this: he wants to win. Passionately. If that means he has to cede some of his offensive responsibilities to teammates, he's not the type to sulk about it.
At times this year, he has forced it offensively. That's probably a holdover from last year, when the Tar Heels needed him to force it. But he has still been Carolina's most productive offensive weapon, a player who either scores or is fouled almost every time he has the ball in the paint. For that reason, he will continue to be--as Roy Williams recently described him--Carolina's number-one offensive option.
Brownlow's Down Low
I know we have a great scoring freshman class....but the shooting percentage appears to extremely high. Brandan Wright must have the one of the best percentages with Ellington not far behind. Is this best shooting-percentage freshman class? We love the Tar Heels just as much north of the Mason Dixon line.
Jim from New York
Lauren writes: This year's freshmen are shooting a combined 157-284 (55.3) from the floor and 23-62 (37.1) from the three-point line. Brandan has the second-best field goal percentage in the ACC at 64%.
The first freshman class was 1972-73, and in a class with just two actual freshmen, Bill Chambers and Mitch Kupchak combined for the second-highest percentage at 58.6% in 1972-73. The 1977-78 class made up of Pete Budko, Mike Pepper and Al Wood combined to shoot 58.8% from the field, which ranks highest amongst UNC's freshmen classes. (Some years, there was only one official "freshman," so I am omitting those years.)
The 1996 class ranks a strong third with Vince Carter, Antawn Jamison, Ademola Okulaja and Ryan Sullivan combining to go 358-627 from the floor (57.1%). The 1981 class of Matt Doherty, Cecil Exum, Sam Perkins and Dean Shaffer combined to shoot 56.7% from the field, fourth-best in Carolina history. The 1987 freshmen - Jeff Denny, Rodney Hyatt, J.R. Reid and Scott Williams - combined to shoot 289-520 from the floor, or a fourth-best 55.6%. This year's group of freshmen would rank fifth on the list with their 55.3%, just in front of the 1988 group (Pete Chilcutt, Doug Elstun, Rick Fox and King Rice) that went 289-520 (54.6%).
Of the 35 freshmen classes, 15 have shot 50% or better from the field. In the 1980s, only the 1984, 1985 and 1989 freshman classes failed to shoot 50% from the field.
The three-point line was in existence experimentally in 1982-83, and then came into being permanently in 1986-87. This year's freshmen class with be the 22nd to use the three-point line, and of those 22, only two classes have shot over 40% from that distance. With 20 or more made three-pointers being the base qualification, the 1996 freshman class leads the way, going 42-97 for 43.3%. (Vince Carter shot 19-55; Ademola Okulaja shot 20-38, Antawn Jamison missed a three-pointer and Ryan Sullivan went 3-3.) The 2005 class is not far behind, shooting 20-47 for 42.6%. (Most of that number was from Marvin Williams who went 19-44, and Quentin Thomas went 1-3.)
This 2007 group is shooting 23-62 (37.2%) from the three-point line (Wayne Ellington: 17-45; Ty Lawson: 6-17). That number would rank them fourth, just a tenth of a percentage point below the 1990 freshman class which shot 22-59 (37.2%). Henrik Rodl (13-30) and Kenny Harris (8-23) led the way, while George Lynch also went 1-3 and Scott Cherry went 0-3.
Individually, Wayne Ellington's 37.8% from the three-point line would rank him sixth on the all-time freshmen list, assuming it stays the same as he goes on to hit 20 or more three-pointers. Among those freshmen, the best percentage was Ademola Okulaja in 1996, who shot 52.6% (20-38). Jeff McInnis shot the second-highest percentage - 41.5% - in 1994 (27-65). Rashad McCants is only a percentage point behind at 41.4% as he both shot and made quite a few more (72-174). Jason Capel shot 41.1% (23-56) in 1999, and Jawad Williams shot 38.2% (21-55) in 2002.
Ellington, if his percentage holds up at 37.8, would rank right ahead of Joe Forte's 2000 freshman year when he shot 56-156 for 35.9%. Raymond Felton turned in a 35.8% performance in 2003 (69-193). Danny Green's 35.5% last season (27-76) ranks as the eighth-most accurate freshman season from the three-point line.
Another interesting note - last year's class, despite being very freshman-heavy, did not make or attempt the most field goals. The 2006 freshmen shot 426-of-904, but the 2003 freshmen (a group that included Raymond Felton, Sean May, Rashad McCants, Byron Sanders and David Noel) attempted 1,197 field goals and made 538 of them, highs for freshmen classes in both.
Adding the 22 more regular-season games and assuming at least three more for the ACC and NCAA Tournaments (25 total), this year's freshmen are averaging 31.6 field goal attempts and are making 17.4. They are on pace to shoot 435-790 on the year, which would slot them at second on made field goals and third in attempts.
Adam Lucas's third book on Carolina basketball, The Best Game Ever, chronicles the 1957 national championship season and is available now. His previous books include Going Home Again, focusing on Roy Williams's return to Carolina, and Led By Their Dreams, a collaboration with Steve Kirschner and Matt Bowers on the 2005 championship team.To submit a Mailbag question, click here.
