University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag Jan. 30
January 30, 2007 | Men's Basketball
Jan. 30, 2007
By Adam Lucas
The Carolina Basketball family suffered a loss this weekend when Tom Zaliagiris passed away unexpectedly. Zaliagiris was a gritty member of Carolina basketball from 1975-78. He shared one of the most memorable Senior Days in Tar Heel history with Phil Ford at Carmichael Auditorium in 1978. The tears that flowed that day showed how much both players valued their time in Chapel Hill.
It's times like this when you see how much of a family the Carolina Basketball family really is--early yesterday morning players started calling other players to try and get the details. The Charlotte Observer has a short obituary this morning with funeral home information.
Now straight to the questions...
A lot has been made of the increase in turnovers. Since the Heels play an uptempo style of ball and, I am assuming, get more possessions a game, is there a correlation between turnovers and possessions per game, and how does it compare to other years?
Craig
Pittsburgh, PA
Good question. Television announcers pay a lot of attention to turnovers. So does Roy Williams, but he prefers to view them through the prism of "% loss of ball," which factors in the number of possessions.
A quick refresher just in case you didn't stay up all night reading Multiple Offense and Defense: Dean Smith calculated possessions by totaling possession-ending stats such as FGA, FT trips, and turnovers. The free throw trips stat is what makes calculating possessions tricky, because you can't do it simply by looking at the box score. Percent loss of ball simply shows what percentage of a team's total possessions ended in a turnover. In general, the 15-16% range is a good offensive performance--Roy Williams's last three Final Four teams have each averaged over 17%.
According to stats kept by the coaches, Carolina has fallen into that range (16% or lower) in 11 of this season's 21 regular-season games, including a 13% figure against Arizona. The Tar Heels's current season-long loss of ball percentage is 16.48%.
Just in case you're wondering, Carolina's current points per possession figure is exactly 1.00. That's extraordinarily high and would be on pace with some of the Tar Heels' best offensive teams ever. Opponents, meanwhile, are averaging 0.77 PPP (Ohio State at 1.05 and Virginia Tech at 1.06 are the only teams to break 1.00) and 20.30% loss of ball.
Savvy Talking Points readers already know, of course, that this year's turnover average is right in line with Roy Williams's best teams (by the way, make sure you check this week's Talking Points to find out what this year's team has accomplished that no Tar Heel team in the past 60 years has done).
Of course with the addition of talented freshmen there is less pressure on Tyler in the post to produce BIG numbers each game. I feel that he is making too many moves and dribbles in the post. Many times he has been in position to take the ball right up but instead takes a dribble or pump fakes which is allowing the defense even more time to collapse on him. This has forced him to take a few very hard fouls (which can have a negative effect over a long season on him physically) that could have been avoidable. Has anyone else noticed this?
Eddie Carter
Nassau, Bahamas
This question is about to reach Bohlander status in the Mailbag. Based on our inbox, here are a few things every Carolina fan with email access can agree on:
1. Big men should never bring the ball down.
2. Carolina should always play a nonconference schedule consisting only of the top-10 teams in America, plus whichever two NBA teams played in the Finals the previous year (no lottery teams unless you want to hurt the RPI!).
3. The point guard should penetrate more.
All of the above have at least some basis in fact, of course. In general, it's a good idea for a big man to keep the ball high, because that way it's out of arm's reach for those annoying little short guys swarming around the paint. And assistant coach Joe Holladay, who works with the Tar Heel big men, is familiar with that idea.
However, Hansbrough is a different kind of post player. Rather than scoring with a variety of quick post moves he can make as soon as he catches the ball, he tends to score through brute force, blowing through defenders and muscling the ball to the basket. Here's the verbatim explanation from Roy Williams:
"As every big guy - I don't care who it is - every big guy is always worried about somebody blocking their shot. Tyler is such a physical player that he's going to take the action to the defensive player, and he gathers himself. He sort of takes another split second so he can explode as much as he possibly can. When he dribbles the ball with what we call the short power dribble, two hand power dribble between his knees, that doesn't bother me. But when he dribbles it and it gets out away from his body, I think it does affect him because it gets the other team's small guys involved in it and it does slow him down a little bit. Tyler's biggest thing is he just needs to keep doing what he's doing because he's having a great year and improve just a little bit each and every game. He doesn't need to do anything drastic. It's amazing how many people think that he's not playing nearly as well as he is last year, and that's wrong because he's playing a lot better than he is last year. He's rebounding better in a crowd. He's playing defense better. He's scoring the same numbers with the defense still aimed at him. But we would like him to get in a situation where when we throw him the ball in the post to make a little quicker move and shoot it or a quicker move to throw it out and repost so he can do it again.
"He is such a fierce competitor that when he gets the ball inside he thinks he can score and he focuses on that goal, and that's a good thing. Tyler Hansbrough makes more baskets and gets fouled because he's not concerned about being fouled. So many guys go out and think about getting fouled or something and miss the dadgum easy shot. That boy goes up and focuses on the basket and puts it in, and if he gets fouled, he says, `Oh, I get to go to the free throw line.' He's about as focused as anybody could ever be, and it's hard to correct him because you just love what he's doing."
After watching what could have been a victory from a furious comeback from the disappointing loss to VT, I was curious as to Roy Williams's track record for comebacks. I know that Dean Smith had some great comebacks, but does Roy have any wild ones himself? I know that he's only been coaching UNC for a few years, but there must be some great ones from Kansas.
Eduardo Park
You'd probably have to put the 2005 comeback against Duke near the top of the list. Williams's Jayhawks also overcame a 19-point deficit to beat UCLA on Dec. 2, 1995. Kansas trailed by 15 at halftime of that game--both of those marks remain KU records.
Considering that Williams's teams have won over 500 games, this isn't especially surprising, but his teams have been remarkably competitive during his coaching career. In his 19 years as a head coach, Williams has lost just seven games by more than 20 points. All but one of those games (a 91-66 defeat against Missouri in 1989) were on the road.
One thing I've never understood is why they don't show individual player stats during the games at the Dean Dome. Many times we (fans in my section) have wondered how many points or rebounds Tyler has or how many assists Ray Felton had, or more importantly how many fouls JJ Redick had (usually not enough). They briefly flash up stats at half-time (which don't include fouls), but if you are taking a break this is easy to miss. The one thing I do like at Cameron Indoor is that they have the points and fouls of all players on the court on their little scoreboard. Why can't we do that? With all the expensive new video equipment installed over the past 2 years there really should be no excuse.
Dr. Neil Graham
Chapel Hill
Be patient, it's on the way. Part of the attraction of the new video boards was the ability to display the type of stats you mentioned. Once the software is ready and the kinks have been worked out, you'll be able to see individual stats--probably in time for the start of the 2007-08 season.
The Smith Center in-game atmosphere is something that's constantly under review. Today's fans probably take for granted how far it's come in just the last five years. A fan from 2000 who was dropped into today's Smith Center would be amazed at the differences--from the changed student seating to the new video boards to the increased use of piped-in music. The in-game experience also is a topic on which it's impossible to make everyone happy. Some fans want all rap music, some want nothing recorded after 1955, some want to hear more of the band, some want to take every piece of sheet music and stuff it in the nearest tuba. For example, you'd be hard-pressed to find two more opposite venues than Indiana's Assembly Hall (strictly band and cheerleaders, nothing canned) and Wake Forest's Lawrence Joel Coliseum (just take the Jock Jams CD and put it on repeat). So far, Carolina seems to have done a good job of trying to walk the middle of the road, and that's a tribute to all those involved, from former marketing czar Norwood Teague to the current holders of that position, Rick Steinbacher and Michael Beale, to band director Jeff Fuchs, to video wizard Ken Cleary.
If you're looking for a potential improvement down the road, Roy Williams is very fond of arenas where the lights can be dimmed for the starting lineup introductions. He was specifically captivated by the introductions when Carolina played at Kentucky's Rupp Arena in his first season at Carolina, as the Wildcats, dimmed the lights, used pyrotechnics, and did everything short of shooting Ashley Judd out of a cannon. What Williams wants, Carolina usually tries to make happen. So why isn't it happening in the Smith Center? The building's lights aren't able to be turned on and off quickly enough to lower them for introductions. The possibility of purchasing add-on flaps to the lights that could open and close when needed has been explored, but such additions would be extremely expensive.
Can you tell me what the device is the refs are during a game - kinda looks like a pager. I noticed this for the first time during a home game this year.
Geldon R. Harper
Kinston, NC
You're trying to set us up, aren't you, Geldon? That's a Precision Time device. The ACC is in their seventh year of using the system; the NBA is in their sixth year with the system. The belt pack you've spotted contains a radio transmitter. When an official blows the whistle, the belt pack recognizes the frequency of the whistle and sends a radio signal to the base, which is connected to the scoreboard controller. It also gives the official timer the ability to restart the clock. According to the company, this is all achieved at the speed of light. But, uh, it's not completely perfect, and mistakes have been known to happen on occasion.
Brownlow's Down Low
I'm sure I'm not the only Carolina fan who's been excited since last year about this year's team's depth. I'm interested to know if Lauren Brownlow can tell me how this year's team stack up against "deep teams" from years past--and how well depth predicts success.
The most simplistic formula for calculating the team's depth would obviously be to pick an arbitrary number of minutes played and see how many guys played more than that, but that overlooks some of the most productive players on the team. For example, TV announcers always say the Tar Heels go 10-deep this year, but any Tar Heel fan (and any game analyst worth their salt) will tell you that leaving Quentin Thomas off the team's depth chart is a major oversight; Alex Stephenson only slightly less so.
How does this compare to teams of years past, and how did those deep teams fare?
Columbia, MD
Lauren writes:
This season so far marks highest number of Carolina players on a team to average in double-figure minutes (10 out of 15), but not necessarily the highest percentage. Minutes were first tracked reliably in 1982-83, and that season the Tar Heels had nine players out of 12 average double-figure minutes. Only three averaged double figures in scoring (Michael Jordan, Matt Doherty and Sam Perkins), but three more players (Jimmy Braddock, Brad Daugherty and Buzz Peterson) averaged seven or more points. Jimmy Braddock's 4.1 assists and 0.9 steals per game both ranked second on the team and he had the best free-throw percentage that season at 82.7%. Brad Daugherty ranked second on the team in both blocks (1.0 a game) and field-goal percentage (55.8%). Steve Hale's 1.9 assists per game in just 13.3 minutes were third on the team. The result that season was a loss in the round of eight to Georgia.The only other team to have such a high percentage play double-digit minutes is the 1993-94 team, where nine of its 12 members averaged double-digit minutes. Just three averaged double-digits in scoring (Donald Williams, Jerry Stackhouse and Eric Montross), but four more players contributed seven points or more per game. Derrick Phelps averaged 9.2 points a game, 5.3 assists (first on the team), 1.8 steals (first on the team), 37.9% from beyond the arc (second on the team) and 74.8% from the free-throw line (second on the team). Rasheed Wallace couldn't break into double figures at 9.5 points per game in 20.9 minutes, but he let the team in blocks (1.8 a game) and field-goal percentage (60.4%), and ranked second in rebounds (6.6 a game). Kevin Salvadori averaged just 5.9 points a game in 20.9 minutes, but ranked second in blocked shots (1.7 a game), third in rebounding (5.9) and third in field-goal percentage (55.7%). The result that season was a second-round loss to Boston College.
One of the best examples of a great group of "support" players was perhaps the 1993 championship team. Four players averaged double-figures in scoring (George Lynch, Eric Montross, Brian Reese, and Donald Williams). Of those who didn't, Derrick Phelps averaged 8.1 points per game, 4.4 rebounds (third on the team), 5.4 assists (first on the team), and 2.3 steals per game (tied for first). Pat Sullivan came in and played quality minutes for the Tar Heels, averaging 16.7 minutes a game and 6.4 points and adding the second-highest field-goal percentage (51.8%) and second-highest free-throw percentage (78.9%). Kevin Salvadori was tied for first on the team in blocks with 1.2, despite averaging just 13.3 minutes and 4.5 points. Henrik Rodl's 3.6 assists per game were second on the team. Scott Cherry and Matt Wenstrom were used 4.8 and 5.0 minutes per game respectively, but both came in and played some minutes for the Tar Heels that season and shot very well off the bench.
This season so far, 10 players average double-figure minutes but just three are averaging double-figures in scoring. Ty Lawson (9.4) and Reyshawn Terry (9.3) are right behind them. Danny Green is first in free-throw percentage (87%) and third in three-point percentage (38.5%). Green's 13 blocks also rank third. Deon Thompson and Alex Stepheson are shooting 58.4% and 56.4%, respectively, which rank second and third on the team. Marcus Ginyard's 24 steals rank third on the team. Wes Miller is third on the team in total assists with 33. As you said, Quentin Thomas and Alex Stepheson don't make the double-digit rotation (8.1 and 7.4 minutes, respectively), but Thomas's 2.3 assists per game rank second on the team behind Ty Lawson.
As this team has shown, because almost every player is getting quality minutes, when it is necessary for others to step up - as in the case when the team was without Brandan Wright and Marcus Ginyard on Saturday - someone will be ready.
Adam Lucas's third book on Carolina basketball, The Best Game Ever, chronicles the 1957 national championship season and is available now. His previous books include Going Home Again, focusing on Roy Williams's return to Carolina, and Led By Their Dreams, a collaboration with Steve Kirschner and Matt Bowers on the 2005 championship team.To submit a Mailbag question, click here.
