University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag Feb. 20
February 20, 2007 | Men's Basketball
Feb. 20, 2007
By Adam Lucas
Thanks for all the great responses to the seating issues that were raised last week. In order to provide a more complete response to some of the questions that were sent, we're going to delay the discussion of them until next week, when the Mailbag will go all seating, all the time. Some of the reader comments from last week have been passed to the appropriate athletic department honchos, and we'll be talking to them more during the next couple of days. If you've got a suggestion, comment, or question that you think needs to be heard, you've got about one more day to send it in, Jerome (if you're too young to get the reference, click here).
It's hard to transition from basketball to this next note, but back in October many Carolina student-athletes got to know Brandon Elam, a big Tar Heel fan who has been going through a difficult time medically. As you peruse his guestbook from October, you'll see the names of numerous Tar Heels who took the time to check in with him. Roy Williams extended an invitation to attend a basketball practice, but Brandon's health didn't permit travel. Now, several months later, Brandon's situation is even more challenging. If you've got time to read the Mailbag today, I'd ask you to take the time to take a couple minutes to read Brandon's story and leave him a note to let him know that Tar Heels everywhere are thinking about him and his family.
I have two questions. First one is about the website. How come TarHeelBlue.com doesn't give the transcripts of the coaches press conference for road games (especially after we beat Duke). It's only about 8 miles home and some of us don't get to listen to the coach's radio program not being anywhere near local.
Next question is a basketball related question. I remember reading that CoachWilliams wanted to try to get at least a hundred possessions a game. How close has Carolina come to doing that this on average so far this year and how does Carolina do offensively (and defensively for that matter) when we get the more possessions? Is there any correlation between the losses and the wins and the amount of possessions?
I know that is more than 2 questions, but a couple are about the same thing.
Wes Best
Dayton, OH
Good questions. TarHeelBlue.com is primarily a product of Carolina's sports information department. Sports information and sports marketing are perhaps the two most misunderstood branches of a school's athletic department. Even some of us who work here haven't figured it out yet. Here's a quick primer:
Sports information (headed by Steve Kirschner) is the liaison between the media and the athletic department. They help coordinate game coverage by the press, run all press conferences, and produce press releases on all 28 teams at the University of North Carolina. That probably sounds easier than it actually is, because most fans only think about three or four of those teams. But sports information has someone writing releases (and media guides) on every single team. That's why, on this site, you can find everything from men's basketball information to rowing information.
To accomplish that type of production, sports information has several interns responsible for a handful of sports. A side part of the job descriptions for interns Liz Ryan, Terry Kermit Roberts, Brent Bearden, Jeff McLerran, Lee Becker, JoAnne Cannell, and Kathryn Roth is assisting Kirschner and men's basketball honcho Matt Bowers at home basketball games (they also assist Kevin Best and John Martin at home football games). They distribute stats to the media, help keep stats, and record the postgame coverage you hear on this site. But due to a lack of space on press row at most arenas, interns don't go on the road, which is why you sometimes don't see those quotes for road games. That being said, Lauren Brownlow has provided more road coverage this year (in addition to enhanced women's basketball coverage) and we plan to continue that practice in the future. If you've got comments about the way you want us to cover men's basketball and/or football, we're always open to suggestions.
Now, a quick word about what sports information doesn't do: they can't get stories in the paper. They can make story suggestions and send out press releases, but the ultimate decision on what to run or not run belongs to editors at each paper. Editors have a genetically unalterable code that requires them to prefer negative news over positive news, so releases on--for example--Academic All-ACC usually get buried, while the story on the third-string safety who played his stereo too loud lands above the fold.
Sports marketing (headed by Rick Steinbacher and Michael Beale and formerly the domain of Norwood Teague) runs all the in-game promotions and helps coordinate game atmosphere. When t-shirts are tossed out of the Boshamer Stadium press box, that's sports marketing. When new music is played before tip-off, that's sports marketing. When you see a billboard on I-40 promoting the Tar Heels, that's sports marketing. Fans spend minutes at tailgate parties or around the water cooler discussing ways to improve atmosphere. Marketing spends hours every day pondering the same topic.
When you see a story you don't like about Carolina, that's not sports marketing--or sports information. That belongs to the media outlet running the story. Neither department can "kill" a story.
Aren't you glad you asked, Wes?
Now, your second question. First, remember that Carolina coaches chart possessions differently from some of the other outlets that keep the same stats, because at Carolina an offensive rebound begins a new possession and it's also impossible to perfectly record possessions without watching the game (to keep track of free throw possessions). According to the stats kept by the coaches, the Tar Heels have broken 100 possessions five times this year--Sacred Heart, Gardner Webb, Tennessee, Penn, and the first Virginia Tech game. Opponents have yet to crack 100 possessions--the season high against Carolina so far this year was posted by Wake Forest (98) in the game in Winston. The Carolina average so far is 91.5 possessions per game.
That pace makes them the most uptempo major college team in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy's adjusted tempo stats. The 74.1 possessions per 40 minutes (again, according to Pomeroy's stats, which are different than the coaches) would be the highest of Williams's tenure at Carolina.
By the way, the Tar Heels are still averaging over 1.00 points per possession (the current figure is 1.01). However, one quirky stat: Carolina has broken the 1.00 mark in just one road game--the 1.01 posted at Wake Forest.
After watching the Heels fail to even get off a shot at the end of the overtime loss to VPI reminded me of the duke game a few years ago when Raymond Felton failed to get a shot off in a loss at Cameron. When is the last time that Carolina actually got off a final shot that was for a buzzer beater win? I do not mean games where the Heels made their last shot and the opponent had one last attempt. I mean an actual shot as time expired to win the game.
Mike Stonnell
Concord
Good thing we didn't print your full address, Mike. Otherwise you'd receive a visit from the Virginia Tech name police. Quoting from their game notes: "When referring to Virginia Tech, we ask that you please leave it at that--Virginia Tech...VPI and Va. Tech are not recognized names and should not be used." So there.
We've been conditioned to shots dropping with no time on the clock because it seems like we see them on SportsCenter every night. But it's much more rare--speaking solely of shots that fall with all zeroes showing--than you might think.
For example, your parameters exclude the season opener last year (David Noel's three-pointer beat Gardner-Webb, but 1.8 seconds remained), last year's win at Florida State (Reyshawn Terry hits two free throws for an 81-80 lead, but 23 seconds remained), the win at Maryland in 2005 (Raymond Felton hits a layup and Sean May blocks a shot as time expires), the comeback over Duke in 2005 (Marvin Williams made the follow shot and free throw, but 17 seconds remained), and the win over Connecticut in 2004 (Rashad McCants hits a 3-pointer for an 86-83 lead, but 6.2 seconds remained). Everyone would agree that those were some exciting games regardless of how much time was left when the final shot went through the basket.
In fact, most of the shots we remember as buzzer-beaters really weren't. Brendan Haywood's layup against Wake Forest in 2001? Doesn't qualify--3.3 seconds were left. The win over Binghamton during the 2001-02 season? In reality, this game never happened and has been stricken from anyone's memory. But if it had happened, there were still 58 seconds left when Jason Capel made his 3-pointer. Ademola Okulaja's 3-pointer at Virginia in 1999 also wouldn't fit into this category, because he left 1.4 seconds on the clock.
It works the other way, too--there were still 1.4 seconds left when Jarrett Jack hit his jumper in the ACC Tournament in 2004. The Tar Heels still had 6.5 seconds to score after Chris Duhon went the length of the court that same year, and even Greg Buckner left 0.6 seconds on the clock when he made his dunk in the ACC tourney quarterfinals in 1996.
So, the last time Carolina won with no time on the clock came way back on Dec. 12, 1998, when Haywood put back an Ed Cota miss to provide a 75-73 win over Charlotte in the Smith Center.
Lauren has more on a similar topic in her Down Low. And Mike, if Carolina loses on a buzzer-beater at some point this season, it's all your fault.
We hear of the SI jinx but I think ABC has them SI beat.
UNC has played on ABC twice this year. First vs. VA TECH. Second vs NC STATE. The result? Both UNC losses! UNC has lost only four times this yr - twice on ABC.
I will always cringe when I see the Heels playing on ABC.
Can you tell me what is UNC's record on ABC over the last 5 years?
Thad Fine
Louisville, KY
Thad's onto something here. The Tar Heels are 0-2 on ABC this year. Their last win on that network came on Feb. 19, 2006, an 83-72 victory over Wake Forest. Even the powerful 2005 team wasn't immune to the ABC jinx--they were just 1-1 on ABC, including a loss at Wake. Over the last five years, Carolina has compiled a 5-3 record on ABC. In all likelihood, not allowing ABC to air Carolina victories is probably the universe's way of punishing ABC for not allowing Kevin and Winnie to end up together on The Wonder Years.
Here's some good news, though: the Tar Heels don't have any ABC games left. They do have one game on CBS remaining, and the Heels are already 2-0 on that network this season. Also, of course, CBS airs the NCAA Tournament. Carolina should play in that event if, as Dean Smith always said, "we're fortunate enough to make it." In many ways, CBS is the anti-ABC: Carolina is 14-1 on CBS over the last three years and hasn't lost a regular-season game on CBS since Jan. 3, 2004, at Kentucky. The Tar Heels haven't lost a home game with CBS in the building since Dec. 2, 2000, against Kentucky.
What is the quickest scheduled turnaround that Carolina has had in terms of playing the same team again? I know that we've probably had numerous instances where we've played the same team within a week or two of each other due to the timing of ACC tourney, or NCAA tourney games, or maybe even pre-season tournament games, but that is to be expected. Doesn't the first regular season game against Wake on Jan 24th followed by the second game on Feb 10th seem a little quick? Is this the quickest scheduled turnaround for a Carolina team ever?
Preston Humphreys
Atlanta, GA
The fact that you specified scheduled turnarounds eliminates the ACC Tournament, which would have had plenty of examples. The 17-day scheduled turnaround against Wake Forest is exceptionally unusual. There was an 18-day turnaround against Virginia in 2005 and a 19-day turnaround against NC State that same year. As you might have guessed, short turnarounds are one of the wonders--along with trips to Boston in mid-February, not playing Wake Forest in football, Carolina and Clemson not facing off in baseball for two straight years, and a four-day marathon ACC Tournament that has sapped much of the drama from the event--of the new ACC.
Here's an interesting scheduling quirk many fans might have forgotten: Carolina played a quick nonconference turnaround in 1988 when they faced Missouri twice in 10 days. The first meeting (a 91-81 Tar Heel loss) came in Madison Square Garden during the Preseason NIT. The Tar Heels got revenge during the Diet Pepsi Tournament of Champions--a tournament that, in its heyday, was terrific--with a 76-60 victory over the Tigers.
Of course, the turnaround king happened in 1991 when Carolina played NC State on back-to-back nights. For those too young to remember, the original game in Chapel Hill against the Pack was postponed--with fans already in the building--due to the invasion of Iraq. After searching for suitable makeup dates, the only one that fit was Feb. 7. It just so happened the two teams were already scheduled to meet in Raleigh on Feb. 6. State won the game in Reynolds and Carolina won in the Smith Center to split the season series.
Brownlow's Down Low
I'm wondering what Coach Williams' UNC record is in close games. I know I saw a stat recently that since coming to UNC, Roy is 4-4 against Duke with all games decided by less than 7 points but I'm wondering what it is overall. I'd also be interested in knowing what his lifetime record is including his time at Kansas. Not sure if there is a true measure of "closeness" but we could consider games decided by less than 10 points? 7 points? 5 points? Maybe the stat gurus at the mailbag could produce results for each so we could get the stats at the different levels?
Scott Schwartz
Durham
Lauren writes:
Scott, I decided to break it down in 1-4 point games (because those are theoretically one-possession games) and 5-7 point games (two-possession games) and 8-10 point games. Overall games decided by ten points or fewer, Coach Williams is 29-22 (.568) in such games. Ten of those 22 losses came in 2004, and in his last three seasons, he has lost just 11 such games combined. In 1-4 point games, he is 10-12. Eight of those 12 losses came in 2004 and 2006. This year's team is 0-2 so far in those games, and even the 2005 team was 3-2 in those games.In 5-7 point games, Coach Williams is 15-7 at Carolina. This year's team is 3-1, including gritty road wins at Duke and Boston College. Last year's team was 2-2 in such games, including a home loss to Boston College and the NCAA Tournament loss to George Mason. The 2005 National Championship team was 5-0 in 5-7 point games, and the 2004 team was 5-4.
Coach Williams is 4-3 in 8-10 point games at Carolina so far. Two of those three losses came from the 2004 team, and both were on the road. One was in overtime. The 2005 team was 1-0 in those games, and last year's team was 1-0 also. This year's eight-point loss to Gonzaga was the first 8-10 point loss Carolina has suffered since 2004.
At Kansas, Coach Williams was 41-32 in 1-4 point games, 45-20 in 5-7 point games, and 32-16 in 8-10 point games. So, in all games decided by 10 points or less, Coach Williams was 118-68 (.634) in games decided by ten points or fewer during his career at Kansas.
The 2004 team were involved in 17 games decided by 10 or fewer points, and that is the most a Roy Williams-coached team has been involved in during one season. They were 7-10 in such games. The second-highest amount of games in a season under Coach Williams was his 1991 Final Four Kansas team, which played in 16 games decided by 10 points or less and went 10-6 in such games. His 1999 team was also involved in 16 close games and went 11-5.
Two teams had a winning percentage of 81.8% in close games during a season. His 1997 Kansas team went 34-2 and had a 9-2 record in close games, including a 2-2 record in games decided by four points of less, one of which was its loss to Arizona in the Sweet 16 by three points. The 2005 National Championship team also won 81.8% of close games (9-2), including a 3-2 record in games decided by four points or less.
The common denominator on all of the teams with good records in close games should be evident: experience. The 2005 team's rotation included seniors Jackie Manuel, Jawad Williams, and Melvin Scott; juniors Sean May, Raymond Felton and Rashad McCants; sophomore Reyshawn Terry and Wes Miller, and the very talented freshman Marvin Williams and back-up point guard Quentin Thomas. The 1997 team had seniors Jerod Haase, Jacque Vaughn, and Scot Pollard; juniors Raef LaFrentz, Paul Pierce, and Billy Thomas, and sophomores Ryan Robertson and T.J. Pugh as part of its regular rotation.
By contrast, the 2004 team was laden with sophomores and freshmen, not to mention undergoing a coaching transition, and it went 7-10 in close games. The only other negative records were the Kansas 1995 team that went 5-6 in close games and Roy Williams' first Kansas team, the 1989 team that went 5-7.
If you don't believe me, let's look at last year's team. Sure, they won a lot of games that perhaps they should not have but they lost close ones as well, going 8-6. They were 5-4 in games decided by four points or fewer and 2-2 in games decided by 5-7 points. This year's team is more of the same: it has gone 5-2 in games decided by 5-10 points, but 0-2 in games decided by four points or fewer. This is a young team and will take its lumps along the way, but a big part of the reason some games haven't been decided by fewer points (like the Boston College game) is that people have stepped up and made crucial free throws when they mattered.
Adam Lucas's third book on Carolina basketball, The Best Game Ever, chronicles the 1957 national championship season and is available now. His previous books include Going Home Again, focusing on Roy Williams's return to Carolina, and Led By Their Dreams, a collaboration with Steve Kirschner and Matt Bowers on the 2005 championship team.To submit a Mailbag question, click here.
