University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: Basketball Mailbag Extra
March 7, 2007 | Men's Basketball
March 7, 2007
By Adam Lucas
The postseason officially begins today, as Carolina will travel to Tampa this evening to begin ACC Tournament preparations. As in past years, you can participate in sending the team off throughout the months of March and April. Also, if you're headed to Tampa, keep in mind that Chapel Hill Sportswear will be set up inside the team hotel (the Wyndham Westshore) to fulfill all your Tar Heel gear needs.
All-ACC teams were here. The full individual voting totals follow:
Player of the Year
Jared Dudley, 45
Al Thornton, 30
Tyler Hansbrough, 19
Sean Singletary, 12
Rookie of the Year
Brandan Wright, 49
Javaris Crittenton, 27
randon Costner, 23
Defensive player of the Year
Jamon Gordon, 54
Zabian Dowdell, 12
DJ Strawberry, 12
Ekene Ibekwe, 8
Josh McRoberts, 7
Coach of the Year
Dave Leitao, 64
Gary Williams, 19
Seth Greenberg, 15
Roy Williams, 4
Al Skinner, 3
Sidney Lowe, 1
In past years I've mentioned that some of the voting process is a bit suspect. You don't always get a feel for that by looking at simply the first-team totals, but when you look at the full list, you'll see some votes that are jarring.
By the way, this obviously opens me up to the whole, "The media shouldn't even be voting on this," line of thinking. To that I say the following--duh. The coaches should vote. But they say don't have time. If the media is going to vote, I firmly believe the voting would make more sense if everyone would make their ballot public, which is why I do it. If I'm tempted to make an idiotic choice on my ballot, I want to remember I'll be held responsible for it later.
Here's my typical All-ACC voting speech: I think expansion has made it significantly harder. In the old days, you saw every team twice, which gave you the same frame of reference for everyone. Now that's gone, and I think the voting is skewed because of it. I probably have a better sense of appreciation for--for example--Zabian Dowdell and Brandon Costner--than I do for--for example--Jared Dudley and Jack McClinton. That's largely because I saw the former pair in person twice and the latter duo in person just once.
My ballot:
First team All-ACC: Tyler Hansbrough, Al Thornton, Jared Dudley, Sean Singletary, Zabian Dowdell.
Explanation: One of the most straightforward first teams in recent memory.
Second team All-ACC: JR Reynolds, Brandan Wright, Tyrese Rice, Kyle Visser, DJ Strawberry.
Explanation: The only difference I had from the final voting is Visser in place of Josh McRoberts. Visser is a senior, has done an incredible amount of work on his game, and toiled for a bad team but still put up solid numbers. He was my pick.
Third team All-ACC: Brandon Costner, Jack McClinton, Javaris Crittenton, Sean Marshall, Jamon Gordon.
Explanation: Here's where I think only seeing a player once impacts the voting. I only saw Marshall one time this year. In that game, he was impress, and I give heavy weight to seeing a player in person. If I'd seen him twice, I might have thought differently. Actually, the name on my third team I didn't feel the best about was McClinton, who I thought about replacing with Ben McCauley or James Mays.
All-Freshman team: Wright, Crittenton, Costner, Ty Lawson, Thad Young.
Explanation: Again, I thought this one was fairly straightforward, but I was wrong. Jon Scheyer beat out Young. There's no question my ballot was influenced by the fact that less than a week before ballots were due, Young torched Carolina in Atlanta. But also consider that for the year, Young averaged 14.0 points and 5.0 rebounds per game while hitting 48.4% of his field goals and 41.4% of his three-pointers. Scheyer's stats were 12.3 points per game, 1.9 assists per game, 40.1% from the field and 36.3% from the three-point line.
All-Defensive team: Gordon, Mays, Ekene Ibekwe, Strawberry, Mario West.
Explanation: West's steals percentage (the percentage of possessions on which a player records a steal while on the court) is one of the best in the nation. I originally had Dowdell on here in place of Mays but changed it at the last minute. In hindsight, I probably shouldn't have made the switch. If he gets more minutes, Marcus Ginyard will be on this team next year.
Defensive Player of the Year: Strawberry.
Explanation: This might as well be called the toughness award. Again, I only saw Maryland once this year, and it came just a couple weeks before ballots were due.
Rookie of the Year: Wright.
Explanation: Lawson played the toughest position in the league--point guard for Roy Williams--very well. But Wright was probably more consistent.
Player of the Year: Hansbrough.
Explanation: I'd love to know how many of the 45 votes naming Jared Dudley player of the year were submitted before the Carolina-Duke game. Would you submit your Best Picture ballot for the Oscars without seeing all the nominated films? Some ACC voters would. Of the three main candidates--Dudley, Hansbrough, and Al Thornton--Thornton is probably the most skilled player. But seeing Hansbrough for every game gives a new appreciation for the treatment he receives in the paint. To put up his numbers with at least one defender hanging off his arm at all times is impressive. Also, this is another case where I only saw Dudley one time and he didn't have one of his best games.
Coach of the Year: Al Skinner.
Explanation: This was perhaps the toughest category to pick, because it seemed like all the candidates failed at the end of the season. I was leaning towards Dave Leitao...but then the Wahoos blew it against Wake Forest. Then I was leaning towards Seth Greenberg...and Clemson upset Virginia Tech (I also think Virginia Tech doesn't get enough credit for having some very good players). I ended up seriously considering two candidates: Skinner and Gary Williams. I went with Skinner out of respect for losing two members of his team--one of them a key member of the rotation--and still finishing in the top half of the league. Sometimes losing a key cog in midseason sends a team spiraling to a disappointing finish. The Eagles remained one of those teams you don't want to play, and that's partially a credit to their coach.
Even before the Duke game, it is obvious that Tyler takes a beating. During the Georgia Tech game Jay Bilas noted how Tyler may take an elbow to the head, but he never flops; he just comes back for more. After seeing Henderson deliver his Randy "Macho Man" Savage flying elbow smash, it made me think about Shaquille O'Neal's Junior season. While his poor free throw shooting certainly contributed to him being fouled so often, his sheer power required a hard foul or he was absolutely going to dunk the ball and have a 50/50 shot at turning it into a 3-point play.
During the 1991-92 season, most observers would have agreed that Shaq got beat-up quite often, resulting in 254 free throw attempts or 8.47 a game. I guess "Number of times fouled" isn't an official stat, but FTA seems to be a pretty good proxy. So far Tyler is at 259 attempts or 8.35 or slightly below Shaq. At this pace he should slide into #2 all-time in Carolina history behind Lennie Rosenbluth. Not since Pete Brennan in the 1950's has a Carolina player taken this many attempts in a two-year period.
Casey Hammontree
Hansbrough is on track to be one of the Tar Heel all-time leaders in free throws attempted. With 259 tries this year, he's already breezed past his freshman total of 253 (an average of 8.16 per game). While you have to take into account some rules changes--until 1973, one free throw was awarded on each of the first six common fouls of a half, and it wasn't until 1991 that teams began receiving two free throws on the tenth foul of a half--with one more season, Hansbrough should become the Carolina career leader in the FT attempted career category. The current leaders:
Lennie Rosenbluth, 815
Pete Brennan, 715
Sam Perkins, 705
Phil Ford, 693
Larry Miller, 661
The most free throws ever attempted by a Tar Heel in a season is Rosenbluth's mark of 376 set during the 1957 season. That's probably out of reach, but Hansbrough has a good chance at moving past Pete Brennan (who shot 291 free throws in 1958) onto second place on that list. Hansbrough's freshman season already occupies eighth place--now ninth after this year's efforts--on the career list.
I have noticed recently Marcus Ginyard is getting more playing time, subbing in for Ellington. Is this due to the fact that Ginyard is a better defender? Roy Williams has to be looking for a defensive spark since the Heels have not had championship defense or rebounding over their last 8 games until the Duke game.
I like Ginyard as a starter better than Ellington for the run toward a national championship. The Heels have plenty of offense, they need defense. I think Ginyard can be similar to Jackie Manuel. Your thoughts?
Wayne Presnell
Martinsburg, WV
There's no question that Marcus Ginyard is a favorite here at Mailbag World Headquarters. But there's been too much of a Tar Heel fan backlash against Wayne Ellington over the past few weeks.
When Carolina struggled in the 2006 NCAA Tournament, one of the primary reasons was a poor perimeter shooting effort. The Tar Heels made just 5 of 18 three-pointers against Murray State and 10 of 30 against George Mason, as teams collapsed inside on Tyler Hansbrough and waited to see if Carolina could force them to guard the perimeter. That never happened, and the season ended early.
It's extremely likely that the same gameplan will be in effect this March. In order to combat it, Ellington--Carolina's best pure shooter--still has a very important role. As even Roy Williams has noted, Ginyard does have some similarities to Jackie Manuel. But that 2005 team also had Rashad McCants, who could fire in a bucket full of three-pointers at any moment, standing on the wing. This team doesn't, and that's why Ellington continues to see big minutes. Ginyard will continue to see important playing time, especially in close games when key defensive stops are needed (and don't forget that he's also hit some clutch free throws this year and grabbed several big offensive rebounds). But Carolina won't make a Final Four run without significant contributions from Ellington.
When watching this year's team play I am starting to feel something familiar. It feels like I am watching the 03/04 team rather then the 2005 championship team. That is, the team is more athletic and more talented than the other team on the court but they just don't seem to make the commitment to every possession. They don't seem to want to get the stop every time. They don't seem to want to make the extra pass every time. In 03/04 that is what was said over and over. Are there any statistical comparisons between these two teams?
Chris Stewart
Wichita, KS
This is sort of an extension of the previous question. Statistically, the teams aren't that similar:
2004: 82.1 ppg, 68.8 FT%, 45.8 FG%, 35.1 3-point %, 1.17 A/TO, +4.3 rebounding margin, 44.4% Defensive FG
2007: 87.1 ppg, 70.5 FT%, 50.2 FG%, 36.0 3-point %, 1.35 A/TO, +8.4 rebounding margin, 41.1% Defensive FG
In other words, this year's team is better in every way. You can also throw in the fact that the 2004 team went just 8-8 in the ACC regular season, lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and went a dismal 4-7 on the road as more evidence that that team simply didn't demonstrate anywhere close to the level of toughness expected by Roy Williams. If this year's theme is "effort," that year's theme was "buying in." The entire 2004 season was basically devoted to teaching that team how to win again. Remember, they were coming off a season in which making the NIT was considered a real achievement. Making the NIT these days would be cause for revolt.
Because of the personalities and transition involved, lots of people--including members of his coaching staff--thought Williams did his best coaching job in 2004.Those same issues aren't present with this year's team, even though they've occasionally had lapses.
Brownlow's Down Low
How have the Heels fared over years as a 1 through 4 in the ACC Tournament, respectively?
Dan Kortenber
Fort Wayne, IN
Lauren writes: Here's how Carolina's record breaks down at each seed:
1-seed: 36-11
2-seed: 24-8
3-seed: 11-7
4-seed: 4-5
5-seed: 1-4
7-seed: 1-2
Overall: 77-37
1-4 seed: 75-31
As a 1-seed, Carolina has a winning record against all seeds except for 6-seeds. The Tar Heels are 1-3 against 6-seeds when they are a 1-seed. No. 1 seed Carolina's lone win against a 6-seed was in the 1957 ACC Championship game against South Carolina, 95-75. The 1976 team lost the ACC Championship game to sixth-seeded Virginia; the 1987 team lost in the title game as well to 6-seed NC State, and the eventual-national champion 1993 team lost in the finals to sixth-seeded Georgia Tech. Carolina is a combined 15-0 against the 7-9 seeds. Carolina is actually 2-1 against 3-seeds and 4-2 against 2-seeds, and has a combined 14-5 against 4- and 5-seeds.
As a 2-seed, Carolina is 24-8. Most losses, appropriately, came against the 1-seed and the 3-seed; Carolina is a combined 9-5 against those teams. No. 2 seed Carolina is 10-2 against 7-seeds, 1-0 against 8-seeds, 1-1 against 6-seeds and 3-0 against 4-seeds.
As a 3-seed, Carolina is 11-7. Carolina won the ACC Championship in 1997 as a 3-seed, knocking off No. 2 Wake Forest in the semifinals and No. 8 NC State in the finals. Two of its losses came to the No. 1 seed, and both were in the title game to Duke - 1992 and 1999. Perhaps the most infamous loss when Carolina was a 3-seed was the 1996 opening-round loss to No. 6 Clemson.
Carolina is 4-5 as a 4-seed, and won the ACC Championship in 1989, knocking off a No. 2 seeded Duke team in the title game. As a 4-seed, Carolina is actually 2-4 against 5-seeds, 1-0 against 2-seeds and 0-1 against 1-seeds. As a 5-seed, Carolina is 1-4, its lone win coming in 1965 against fourth-seeded South Carolina. The most recent - and perhaps the most painful - loss as a 5-seed came against Georgia Tech in 2004, when Jarrett Jack hit a shot with less than two seconds left to put the Yellow Jackets up one. As a 7-seed, Carolina has faced Duke twice and lost both games. Duke was a 2-seed when they beat No. 7 Carolina in 2002 (during the 8-20 season) and knocked off the Tar Heels as a No. 3 seed in 2003. Carolina's lone win as a No. 7 seed came against second-seeded Maryland, when the Tar Heels rebounded from suffering their worst loss in ACC history to beat the Terrapins 84-72.
Carolina is a combined 17-0 against 8-seeds and 9-seeds (15-0 against 8-seeds, 2-0 against 9-seeds). The Tar Heels are 11-3 against 7-seeds and 8-5 against 6-seeds. The second-seeded 1970 squad lost its opening round game against 7-seed Virginia, and the 2-seed 1973 team lost its first game against Wake Forest.
Carolina has won 15 ACC Tournament championships and is 35-12 in the quarterfinals, 27-13 in the semifinals and 15-12 in the championship game.
Carolina has a winning record in every decade of ACC play except for this one, in which it is 5-7 with just one championship game appearance. In this decade, Carolina has a 3-2 record as a 1-seed, a 1-1 record as a 2-seed, 0-1 as a 4-seed, 0-1 as a 5-seed and 1-2 as a 7-seed. Its only 1-seeds of this decade were 2001, when the Tar Heels excited the ACC Tournament in the championship game and the NCAA Tournament in the second round against Penn State, and 2005, when the Tar Heels lost in the second round to Georgia Tech and won the national championship.
Adam Lucas's third book on Carolina basketball, The Best Game Ever, chronicles the 1957 national championship season and is available now. His previous books include Going Home Again, focusing on Roy Williams's return to Carolina, and Led By Their Dreams, a collaboration with Steve Kirschner and Matt Bowers on the 2005 championship team.To submit a Mailbag question, click here.
