University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag
January 15, 2008 | Men's Basketball
Jan. 15, 2008
By Adam Lucas
Last week we had a discussion of the RPI and mentioned the NCAA now releases their official figures. Later that day, they released their first edition for this season. The updated numbers should be out later today.
I have a question which pertains to the Points Per Possession Stat. When a team shoots and misses and the opposition tips the ball trying to secure a defensive rebound, but then the Tar Heels tap the ball in for a field goal, how many possessions does that constitute?
Tim from Burlington
Tim has hit upon the primary difference in the way possessions are charted at Carolina and the way they're kept at many statistical websites, such as Ken Pomeroy's site. According to the Dean Smith method, every offensive rebound begins a new possession. That means a high number of possessions according to the coaches' count is usually over 100, whereas Carolina's Pomeroy count of 76.9 possessions per game is good for fifth in the country.
That leads us to a related question...
Since we are repeatedly hearing about how the team is next to last in the ACC in points allowed but that is partly due to the fast pace of the offense, I am wondering if there is a compilation of how many possessions each team allows its opponents. The natural follow up question is ranking the offensive efficiency allowed opponents. In other words, are the Heels really the eleventh worst team defensively?
Tom Solley
Atlanta
This is perhaps going to come across as more negative than I mean it, but the reason points allowed continues to be used as a reference point by television and mainstream media is because it's easy to understand. We all grasp the concept of points--100 is a lot, 60 isn't a lot.
What Tom is asking about is more complex and doesn't lend itself to being explained in five-second sound bites. Therefore, you won't hear many commentators reference it (astute folks like Jay Bilas would be the exception). Getting an exact count of possessions in a game requires watching every second of the action--and, as we mentioned above, deciding whether to follow the Carolina counting model or the Pomeroy counting model. Since the Tar Heel coaches don't track points per possession for every team in the country, we'll again turn to Pomeroy's site. He uses a points per 100 possessions statistic, and Carolina currently ranks 27th in the country in that stat. 88.9 would be approximately in line with the average of the Williams era, which suggests that this year's defense is not noticeably better or worse than previous years. Of course, the final determination on that subject will be made over the next three months.
With Wayne's HUGE three pointer last Sunday night, my dad and I got to talking about last second, game-winning field goals in Carolina history. Specifically recent ones. The last time I recall Carolina winning a game with a field goal on their final possession was Marvin Williams' tip in on Senior Day 2005. However, there were still 17 seconds on the clock. I believe the last Carolina game winner in the waning seconds goes to Rashad McCants against UConn in '04. In fact, there are only a handful of game winners of the sort I can remember off hand aside from the two mentioned above: Dante Calabria against Duke in '96, Rick Fox against Oklahoma (of course), King Rice beating Virginia in '91 I think, and Pete Chilcutt's turnaround against Syracuse. I know there have been more than that in my 20+ years as a Carolina fan. Help me out.
Mike Watson
Wetumpka, AL
Fun question. For a look at recent buzzer-beaters, take a look at this previous Mailbag.
One major thing that I have noticed this season has been Tyler Hansbrough's ability to draw charges on defense. It seems that nearly every game Hansbrough draws at least one charge. I know that this is not a stat that would show up in the box score but I feel pretty certain that this would be something that the coaches probably keep track of through the course of the season.
EM3 Finger, H. Daniel, USN
You'd be right. Drawing charges is one of the areas Tar Heel coaches review in every film session, and it's one of the many postgame awards that can result in the coveted plus points for players (for more on the tape-watching process, read this story).
It won't surprise you to learn that Hansbrough won or shared the drawn charges award 10 times in the first 16 games. He's also won the offensive rebounding award in 12 of the last 14 games, has been honored three times as the game's best screener, and twice as the game's best defender.
This reminds me of a recent conversation I had on a radio interview. The host started his question with, "Well, Tyler Hansbrough didn't play very well at Clemson..." Really? Yes, it's true that he didn't meet his scoring average--"only" 3-of-7 from the field and 12 points. But he was easily the game's leading rebounder (with 14), and grabbed several of the game's most important boards. He also drew a key charge late in regulation that gave the Tar Heels a chance to win.
Sometimes, it seems as though outsiders become so fascinated with Hansbrough's uncanny ability to put the ball in the basket, even with three defenders draped over him, that they miss the fact that he's become a much more complete player. He's one of only three players in the nation's top 15 in both scoring and rebounding--you probably knew Kansas State's Michael Beasley was one of the others, but did you know the third is High Point's Arizona Reid?--and even hard-to-please Roy Williams recently singled out his star's defensive improvement. "He moves his feet so much better than he did three years ago," the head coach said. "He and Bobby Frasor have improved their defensive slides and foot quickness staying in front of the basketball as much as any two players I've ever coached. I don't have any doubts about Tyler guarding a guy out on the floor. He slides his feet much better and understands positioning much better."
I know that the assistant UNC coaches are all very talented and extremely valuable to the success of the team. I believe they each have some individual recruiting and scouting responsibilities throughout the season and year. What I don't know or see is what their responsibilities are during a game?
Dave Green
Mt. Airy, NC
Anything and everything that can happen in a basketball game is tracked on the Tar Heel bench. Joe Holladay (who works with big men during practices) tracks fouls and timeouts. Steve Robinson (who usually works with the guards in practices) diagrams opposing sets or ways to attack an opposing defense. Jerod Haase tracks the substitution pattern and stays focused on the rotation to make sure it doesn't get out of kilter. And C.B. McGrath keeps a detailed shot chart--it was McGrath's stats that showed State made a stunning 3-of-21 first half shots in the paint on Saturday--and the points per possession figures.
Scouting duties are divided among the staff during the season. Holladay, Robinson, and Haase are assigned certain "scouts" before the season. With five seasons of experience at Carolina, they're likely to stick with certain assignments--Holladay, for example, usually gets Florida State, because he already has a background with the Seminoles after studying them in past seasons. When they're assigned the scouting report, an assistant will turn to the extensive UNC video library and watch several complete games from that opponent during the season. It's their responsibility to walk the Tar Heels through several key opponent sets at practice the day before the game. And as Holladay once said, all the hours of studying film come down to one thing: when the other team has the ball on the game's final possession, the head coach will turn to you in the huddle and say, "What are they going to run?" At that moment, Holladay, Robinson, and Haase have to be able to answer that question correctly.
I think I've mentioned this before, but relative to the national scene, the scouting report this staff gives to the players is minimal. At other places, it's not unusual for players to receive 10 pages or more on the next opponent. At Carolina, everything is distilled onto one sheet of paper. That sheet, plus eight minutes of film on the opponent's favorite sets at practice the day before the game, is what the players are expected to commit to memory.
Brownlow's Down Low
I think it's time to give Wayne the nickname Sweet E. His style is similar to that of Walter Davis. How do his stats compare?
Carol
Lauren writes:
This is one of those questions that I feel I am too young to answer in the best way. I decided to ask my mother about this, since she went to school at Carolina during the Walter Davis era. But when I asked her about, for instance, Rick Fox's bank shot in the 1990 NCAA Tournament to upset No. 1 seed Oklahoma, she didn't remember it very well. When I asked her why, she said something along the lines of: "I had two children. One was 4 ½ years old and the other was two. I didn't have time to watch sports." So I always just sort of assumed that, even in college, she was never that into basketball - until my brother and I got older, at least.But when I asked her about Ellington versus Davis, she certainly proved me wrong. To paraphrase, she said that in a way, it almost devalues the merits of each player individually to compare the two. She mentioned that "Sweet D" earned his nickname and to call him "Sweet E" is almost, in a way, unfair to both players by making what Wayne seem like the second coming of Walter Davis as opposed to just a first coming of Wayne Ellington.
But in terms of the comparison - again, it is certainly a tricky business. First of all, Walter Davis was a 6-6 guard/forward and Ellington is a 6-4 pure shooting guard. Another issue is that Ellington is playing in the three-point line era and Davis did not. Obviously, Dean Smith preached to his team to get the best possible shot and it's natural to assume that most of those would have been closer to the basket. However, my mother - and many other Tar Heel fans - has insisted that "Sweet D" took quite a few shots from three-point distance.
One thing that they have in common is that many nicknames have been bandied about to describe them. Davis was branded "Sweet D" - his most famous nickname - but "The Greyhound," "The Candyman," and "The Man with the Velvet Touch" have also been used. Wayne has been called everything from Wayne "The Rain" Ellington to "The Duke" to "Weezy," which is what his teammates call him. I think we can all agree that, at least among ourselves, "The Duke" is not an acceptable nickname.
Both have hit famous buzzer-beaters - although the edge would probably go to Walter Davis for his 35-footer that capped off the eight-points-in-17-seconds comeback and sent the game into overtime. Davis also scored 21 points in an NCAA Tournament game with a broken finger on his shooting hand that sent Carolina to the 1977 Final Four. Both certainly have gorgeous shooting form. However, I would say that for the most part, comparisons between the two are best made by observation and certainly not through statistics. But that's where the whole problem of the differing eras of basketball comes up.
Walter Davis shot 53.1% from the field for his Carolina career, a ridiculous number for a guard. In fact, of Carolina's 1,000-point scorers that played guard and/or forward, that figure ranks below only Al Wood (56.0%), Vince Carter (54.7%) and Michael Jordan (54.0%).
In the three-point era, a more apt comparison to Wayne Ellington might be Walter Davis' nephew, Hubert (49.8%). Shammond Williams comes to my mind as a slightly younger Tar Heel fan, but he was more of a late bloomer. He still shot 45.5% from the field over his career. Right now, Ellington has shot 45.3% over the course of his career from the field. Ellington has improved his shooting percentage from 43.3% last season to 48.6% this season. That is not even the biggest improvement on the team - Danny Green shot 35.5% from the field last season and is up to 41.1% this year.
Ellington's career free-throw percentage (87.1%), if he were to stop playing tomorrow, would be best all-time at Carolina. This is a trend in Carolina history - good shooters tend to also make their free throws. Imagine that! Of Carolina's top ten three-point shooters over their career, five rank in the top 11 in free-throw shooting over their career as well. Shammond Williams, who ranks sixth in career three-point percentage (40.3%), is first in free-throw shooting at 84.9% (unless Ellington's percentage holds on). Ellington is shooting 39.1% from the three-point line over his career (43.4% this season) and if that percentage held, he would rank eighth all-time in Carolina history. Jeff Lebo ranks third in free-throw percentage (83.9%) and second in three-point percentage (42.8%). Jason Capel is ninth in Carolina history in free-throw percentage (82.3%) and tenth in three-point percentage (37.5%).
Hubert Davis, who leads all three-point shooters over his career at 43.5%, ranks 11th in free-throw percentage history (81.9%). His uncle Walter didn't play with a three-point line, but "Sweet D" ranks 23rd in career free-throw percentage (77.3%).
Adam Lucas most recently collaborated on a behind-the-scenes look at Carolina Basketball with Wes Miller. The Road To Blue Heaven is available now. Lucas's other books on Carolina basketball include The Best Game Ever, which chronicles the 1957 national championship season, Going Home Again, which focuses on Roy Williams's return to Carolina, and Led By Their Dreams, a collaboration with Steve Kirschner and Matt Bowers on the 2005 championship team.
