University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag
November 18, 2008 | Men's Basketball, Featured Writers, Adam Lucas
Nov. 18, 2008
By Adam Lucas
Welcome back to another year of the UNC Basketball Mailbag. Lauren and I will join you in this space every Tuesday from now until--hopefully--sometime in April. A quick refresher: we can't cover recruiting questions because of NCAA rules, but anything else related to Tar Heel hoops is fair game. Please make sure you include your name and hometown so we give you the appropriate credit (or blame) for your question. And remember to listen to the Tar Heel Sports Network pregame show, because questions not answered online are often covered there. We look forward to receiving your questions.
If you're a Rams Club member, you're also getting an extra edition of the Mailbag each week in Tar Heels Today. This week's question deals with the attempt to get Bobby Frasor a fifth year of eligibility. If you are a Rams Club member and aren't familiar with Tar Heels Today, drop the THT folks an email.
As always, each edition of the Mailbag will be accompanied by a quirky little segment we call the Tuesday Talking Points.
No one seems to have an answer for what happened with Kansas last year, but my view was they lacked a strong team leader to pull them back together when things started to fall apart. Not necessarily the best player, but the calming influence that can get the ship righted when panic starts to set in (as it apparently did). I suspect Bobby Frasor might have been the one to do it if he had been healthy. Will this year's team have that kind of leader and who might it be in your opinion?
Jack Ingley
end, Oregon
I love this question because it illustrates the nationwide phenomenon of Carolina Basketball. The fact that there's someone in Bend, Oregon (2,732 miles from Chapel Hill), who cares enough to write the Mailbag is pretty impressive.
Jack, two players come to mind as possibilities. The first is Marcus Ginyard. He's carried that role for a couple seasons, and it's something he talks about frequently. It's also something that's tough to do alone, and that seemed to weigh on him occasionally as a junior.
The second possibility is--as you noted--Frasor. "Bobby is the stabilizing force offensively and defensively on the court," Ginyard says. "Everyone feels more comfortable when Bobby is on the court. He is a person who every single person in the gym respects. It's tough not to rally behind him and work hard for him. He's a natural leader and he's tough not to follow."
Couple those very telling quotes from Ginyard with the fact that Roy Williams called Frasor "our best talker" on defense, and you can see why Frasor was missed last season in a way that went beyond the box score. Not coincidentally, he also won the team defensive award in the season opener against Penn.
Please tell me that the Heels have an awesome nickname lined up for Tyler Zeller. He's an excellent addition to the Heels, but with both "Tyler" and "Ty" already locked up by upperclassmen, I'd hate for him to get lost in the shuffle! (Though you'd think that wouldn't be a problem for someone 7 feet tall) Does he have an alias or middle name we could call him by for easy distinction?
Mell Perling
rooklyn, NY
This doesn't qualify as an "awesome nickname," but the players have been calling Zeller "Z" or "Big Z." By the way, Frasor recently called the big freshman, "a social butterfly." That speaks to how well Zeller has fit in not just with the basketball team, but with the campus. As you've seen with the other Tyler (Hansbrough), a happy player who feels at home is a productive player.
By the way, Roy Williams has been bragging on Zeller's ability to run the floor ever since the big guy signed. Zeller himself says there's been a slight adjustment in running the court in high school and running the court the way Williams demands. "It's very similar," he says, "but the players at this level are more athletic. They run much better. It's not that I have to run faster to keep up with them, it's that you have to know how to get out and work with people as you run."
Despite some clear differences, I see a lot of similarities between this year's team and the 2005 team that won it all. With both teams having an experienced, deep lineup, a speedy and talented point guard, a gifted shooter at the two, a lockdown defender at the wing, an imposing and justifiably feared post player and a couple guys who do everything, I can't help but imagine a game between these two teams. The lofty expectations put before this year's team sparked a debate between my friend and I over who would win the hypothetical matchup, and we decided to let your opinion settle the argument. What do you think?
Billy Stanton
Wilmington, NC
Billy, I hope you had the '05 side. This would have been a more fair question in March of 2009, so maybe you can re-ask it then. But as of right this second, it's hard to take this year's unproven and currently just 1-0 team over the national champions.
My guess at the biggest two differences would be at point guard and on the bench. Ty Lawson still needs to prove he's capable of being the kind of defender Raymond Felton was for the 2005 team. After some early difficulties, by his junior season Felton had a complete understanding of what Roy Williams was asking him to do--both as a player and a leader. Lawson may yet prove he has the same grasp, but he'll have to show it over the next few months.
On the bench, don't forget that the '05 team was bringing in Marvin Williams, a player that would have starred--not just started, but starred--on almost every other team in America. Williams was probably one of the two best reserves in Tar Heel basketball history, a tandem that also includes Jerry Stackhouse during the 1993-94 season.
That's not to say that this year's team wouldn't have advantages. This group, when healthy, is deeper than the 2005 team. And while Sean May had a great junior season, Tyler Hansbrough is one of the greatest players in program history. Hopefully, we'll be able to revisit this conversation in the spring for a more thorough examination.
What is the history (win/loss record, ACC/NCAA tourney results) of UNC basketball teams who have entered the season ranked number one in pre-season polls?
Mike Miller
Mills River, NC
The Tar Heels were the AP preseason top-ranked team on these six occasions:
By the way, a reader sent an interesting link on the accuracy of preseason polls. It includes the phrase, "If we accept that n=1," so see, all those people who told you algebra was useless were wrong. Next week, we'll discuss how the FOIL method can determine a backcourt rotation.
Brownlow's Down Low
As the basketball season approaches, the general consensus is that Carolina's weakness is defense. Because of the speed at which Roy's teams play, I think that points per game and other total output measures of defense (which the Tar Heels did not rank highly in last year) might be a bit overrated. Is there any evidence that Carolina's fast style of play and immense depth has taken a toll on opponents in the second half? Has opponent scoring and field goal percentage dropped significantly in the second half or in the last ten minutes?
David Giancaspro
Chapel Hill
Lauren writes: It's not something quantifiable, but Carolina's opponents can often be seen hunched over, tugging on the bottoms of their shorts at the end of games. But all three teams that beat Carolina used late-game surges (Maryland and Duke both driven by a combined 13 points from the line) to either hold off or defeat Carolina. As Carolina clawed its way back into the Kansas game, the Jayhawks started out the second half shooting 9-of-22. But after Carolina cut it to 64-59 with 5:41 left, Kansas shot 7-of-9 and scored 20 points in 5:24 after getting just 20 in the first 14:36.
Out of 39 games, Carolina held 21 teams to a lower field-goal percentage in the second half. Carolina allowed Florida State to shoot a higher percentage in the second half but held the Seminoles to 14.3% in overtime. Carolina held opponents in two of its three losses to a lower field-goal percentage in the second half (Maryland went from 48.6% to 44.4% and Kansas went from 54.5% to 51.6%).
One strange phenomenon was the opponent's free throws in the first and second half. Carolina held 15 opponents to a lower free-throw percentage in the second half. But on the season, Carolina's opponents actually shot 65.8% from the line in the first half and 67.2% in the second. Carolina held opponents to 34.2 points in the first half and just 10.9% of those points came from the foul line (3.7 made free throws to 5.7 attempts). But in the second half, Carolina allowed 37.7 points and 18.7% came from the foul line. Opponents averaged 7.0 made foul shots on 10.5 attempts.
In many close or comeback Carolina wins, the Tar Heels appeared to face a tired offense down the stretch. Carolina was up 66-65 with 1:29 to go against Davidson and had allowed them to shoot 42.9% (12-of-28). After that, Davidson made just 1-of-5 shots. BYU began the second half shooting 13-of-27 (48.1%), taking a 62-61 lead. In the final 4:07, they hit 1-of-9 (11.1%). Carolina was down 76-74 at Georgia Tech with 7:30 left; the Yellow Jackets scored six points in the final 4:06 on 2-of-11 shooting (18.2%) after shooting 11-of-23 (47.8%) before that in the second. Carolina was down 68-66 at Duke with 5:42 to go and the Blue Devils would not score again, missing 11 shots. They had shot 15-of-33 (45.4%) prior to that point in the second half.
Adam Lucas is the publisher of Tar Heel Monthly. He is also the author or co-author of four books on Carolina basketball.
