University of North Carolina Athletics
Wake Forest Game Guide
January 10, 2009 | Men's Basketball
Jan. 10, 2009
By Lauren Brownlow
The Basics
No. 3/3 North Carolina (14-1, 0-1) will travel to No. 4/4 Wake Forest (13-0, 0-0) seeking to even its ACC record while the Deacons will open league play. Wake Forest has been off since last Saturday, when it beat BYU 94-87 on the road, breaking the nation's longest home winning streak at 53 games. Carolina is coming off of a 108-80 win over College of Charleston, not only avenging the Boston College loss but also ending an over 30-year streak in which the Cougars had not allowed 100 points or more. Four of Carolina's next six games are on the road and the Tar Heels have won 15 straight road games, eight straight in the ACC dating back to last season.
Carolina leads the series between the two teams 151-63. The last Wake Forest win was on January 15, 2005 when Wake Forest won 95-82 in Winston-Salem making all 32 free-throw tries. Carolina has won the last four in a row but Wake has won six of the last 11 meetings. This is the fourth time in the last five years that the teams will meet just once this year. The Tar Heels have won two straight at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum and has not won three straight there since a four-game streak between 1989 and 1992. The Tar Heels have a 54-29 record on the road against Wake Forest and a 10-8 record at Lawrence Joel. The 151 wins against Wake Forest are Carolina's most against any opponent.
Game Time: North Carolina at Wake Forest, 8:00 PM.
Last Time: Carolina beat Wake Forest 89-73 in the Smith Center on December 24, 2008. The Tar Heels led 50-41 at the break after hitting 59.3% of its first-half field goals. Wake Forest hit 7-of-13 in the first half from beyond the arc but that dropped to 1-of-7 in the second half. Carolina hit 7-of-14 three's in the game and 56% of its field goals in the game. Wake Forest hit 48.3% from the floor. Carolina also hit 26-of-34 foul shots while Wake Forest hit just 8-of-17. Carolina also out-rebounded the Deacons 38-24 but turned it over 20 times compared to 18 for Wake Forest.
Tyler Hansbrough led Carolina with 29 points on 9-of-13 shooting (11-of-14 from the foul line), adding five rebounds and a team-high four steals. Wayne Ellington had 17 points on 5-of-11 shooting (3-of-5 from beyond the arc), adding six rebounds and two steals. Danny Green was the third Tar Heel in double figures with 15 points and a team-high nine rebounds. Quentin Thomas had seven assists to lead the team. James Johnson led Wake Forest with 22 points on 8-of-13 shooting. He also had a team-high eight rebounds, but did have six turnovers. Jeff Teague had 18 points on 7-of-15 shooting, adding three assists and two steals. Chas McFarland had 11 points on 6-of-6 shooting, adding a team-high three blocks. Ishmael Smith led the Deacons in assists with eight.
Radio Coverage: Tar Heel Sports Network coverage begins at 7:00 PM.
Injury Report: Mike Copeland tore his ACL in May and saw his first action of the season against Nevada. Tyler Zeller broke his wrist against Kentucky. He had surgery and will likely miss the rest of the season. Marcus Ginyard returned to limited action in the Nevada and Boston College games but missed the College of Charleston game. He is still trying to get back into his normal form after having surgery on October 8th to repair a stress fracture in his foot. Williams said that Ginyard has participated in about 50 percent of every practice since his return and he is not sure about when he will return fully. "I just thought and Marcus thought that he would be farther along at this step," Williams said. "We are even discussing holding him out for a little bit and just letting him rehab and seeing if he can get back to that point where he was in the past. And if that's the case, then we'll be a heck of a lot better off."
Storylines
A tough defensive test: Wake Forest leads the league in field-goal percentage, making 51.2% of its shots. The Deacons have shot below 50 percent in just four of 13 games but have shot 55 percent or higher four times. On two-point tries alone, Wake Forest has shot 55.8% this season. Carolina is eighth in field-goal percentage defense, allowing 39.8 percent. If the Deacons have a glaring weakness, it's three-point shooting; they are 8th in the league in that category making 33.5% and just 4.1 per game, 11th in the league. Carolina is tenth in three-point defense, allowing 32.2% by opponents. Wake Forest is second to last in turnovers with 16.4 per game. Only Florida State with 16.6 has averaged more this season.
This is not the same kind of team that the Tar Heels have faced in the last few games. This is a Wake Forest team that has a lot of speed and quickness and rather than looking to penetrate and pitch the ball to an open shooter, the Deacons are going to be looking to score more often than not. "They're going to try to drive the ball all the way to the basket," Williams said. "I have not looked at stats but some announcer ... said that they're not shooting the three-pointer very well. The only thing I know is when I watch their games that Teague and Ish and Aminu and Johnson, they try to get the ball as close to the basket as they possibly can. So everybody doesn't try to do that. So what you've got to do is make some slight adjustments from game to game to try to figure out the best thing that your defense can do to stop them."
Even though the Deacons have been turning it over less in recent games, its opponents have been capitalizing more in recent games. In the first eight games, Wake Forest turned it over 17.5 times per game but its opponents scored 13.8 points off of those turnovers. But in the last five games, Wake has turned it over just 14.6 times and opponents have averaged 18.4 points off turnovers. Only one of Wake's first eight opponents scored more than 20 points off turnovers; three of the last five opponents have done so. BYU tied a season high with 25 points off of just 13 turnovers. Carolina will need to capitalize on the few opportunities it may force or get. The Tar Heels average 21.3 points off turnovers and have scored 20 or more points off turnovers in nine of 15 games this season. Boston College turned it over 11 times and Carolina managed just five points off of those turnovers, a season-low.
But if Carolina can't force a team into mistakes, it comes down to playing smart team defense, staying in front of your man and not allowing easy baskets. "We've just got to put the effort in from here on out to be mentally focused for 40 minutes," Danny Green said. "Defense comes down to effort. It has nothing to do with talent. It's just the desire to want to play defense, to want to stay in front of your man, box somebody out and get to loose balls. We've got to be focused for 40 minutes and be able to limit teams to one bad shot and be able to run."
Wake Forest is sixth in the nation in points off of two-pointers gaining a whopping 62.5% of its points on those baskets. Carolina's defense has allowed opponents to score 53.4% of their baskets on two-point attempts, 135th-most in the nation. Carolina's opponents are 110th in terms of points from the three-point line (29.3%) but Wake Forest is dead last - 344th - in points from beyond the arc, just 14.3 percent. The highest point total Carolina has allowed all season was 87 points to Notre Dame, a team that gets 31.9% of its points from beyond the arc (67th in the nation). That is the highest-ranked team Carolina has played in terms of percentage points beyond the arc. The Tar Heels have the best defensive ranking in terms of points allowed form the foul line, holding opponents to just 17.4% of points from there.
Carolina has played eight games against teams inside the top 107 in percentage of points off of two-pointers. In those games, Carolina allowed an average of 67.4 points and forced 20.3 turnovers. Against six teams outside of that category, Carolina has allowed 72.5 points per game and forced 19.5 turnovers. The top 107 actually put up six of Carolina's bottom seven point totals allowed this season but also the second and third most points the Tar Heels have allowed. The bottom teams, however, have the 1st, 4th, 6th and 7th-highest point totals against Carolina. But the main difference is in field-goal percentage; the teams that rely on two-pointers have shot four of the top seven and six of the top ten field-goal percentage performances allowed. Five of the eight teams shot 44.4% or better; of the bottom teams, two of six shot 44.4% or better.
Of the bottom 90 teams in the nation in terms of reliance on the three-pointer, Carolina has played six this season and has allowed an average of 69 points. It has been on both ends of the spectrum in terms of points allowed, though - Carolina's second-to-last, third-to-last and fourth-to-last point totals allowed were against three of those teams (Kentucky at 58, Nevada at 61 and 63 against Michigan State). But the third-most, fourth-most and fifth-most points scored against Carolina were also against those teams (84 by Oral Roberts, 75 by Rutgers and 73 by Evansville). The Deacons are also the 53rd-most reliant team on free throws; 23.2% of its points have come at the line. Carolina has played four teams ranked higher - Evansville at No. 11, Nevada at No. 14, Rutgers at No. 31 and Penn at No. 47. All four of those teams get 23.4% of their points or more at the foul line; Carolina held them to 16.8 percent.
Consistent board work: Carolina has allowed four of its last eight opponents to rebound 42.1% or more of their own missed field goals alone; Nevada nabbed 48.8% of their missed shots, a season-high. After allowing Boston College to get 42.1% of their missed field goals, Carolina held College of Charleston to a season-low 15.2 percent. The seven offensive rebounds were the fewest Carolina has allowed since the third game of the year against Santa Barbara. Carolina also out-rebounded Charleston by 21, the second-largest margin of the season and the largest since it out-rebounded Oregon 58-33. After the first half of the Boston College game in which Carolina had been out-rebounded 23-19, Carolina has out-rebounded opponents by a combined 78-43 in the last three halves of basketball, or +23.3 rebounds per the last 1.5 games. In the first 13.5 games, Carolina out-rebounded opponents by just 7.1 boards.
Roy Williams-coached teams want to rebound well and if Carolina wants to beat Wake Forest, it had better get back to doing just that. The Tar Heels have already been out-rebounded three times this season in 15 games. Wake Forest has actually been rebounded in three games as well, including a 17-point beating on the boards against UTEP, and has been out-rebounded in consecutive games by an average margin of five. But the Deacons have rebounded a staggering 78.5% of their opponents' missed shots (on field goals alone). Wake Forest has rebounded 42.4% of its own field-goal misses. Carolina has rebounded 44.1% of its own missed shots and 73.4% of its opponents' missed shots. Wake Forest has the No. 5, No. 7 and No. 18 rebounders in the ACC. The Deacons are No. 3 in the league in rebounding margin at +9.3 per game, averaging 43.8 rebounds to 34.5 by its opponents. Carolina is fourth, averaging 42.6 and allowing 33.8 (+8.8). Carolina has out-rebounded opponents by double-digits in eight of 13 games this season and by 20 or more in four games.
Playing on the road: Carolina has a 15-game road winning streak dating back to last season, including an 8-0 record on the road in league play last year. These seniors have always loved playing on the road, going 7-1 in league road games during their freshman season and boasting a 19-5 career record in league road games. The 2006-07 team incorporated in this years' juniors like Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson and it struggled at first on the road, going 4-4 in league play and losing its final two league road games. That team had the best home record in the last three seasons at 7-1. But when the attitude of the team began to become one of toughness and grit, last years' team went 8-0 on the road and 6-2 at home. "We all understand how important it is to win on the road," Tyler Hansbrough said. "It's very tough, especially in the ACC. It's something that everybody on this team has bought into. We know what to expect because we've been there and we've seen it."
This team has seen teams go off against them shooting the ball like NC State did two seasons ago in Raleigh, and teams make ridiculous comebacks against Carolina to win like Maryland did in College Park that same season and has heard all of the obscene chants and distractions. But it has also seen its starting point guard go down in the beginning of a game on the road against a team that eventually took it to overtime (Florida State in Tallahassee) and Carolina still came out on top. It won two overtime games on the road last season. With an incredibly short-handed team, it squeaked out a one-point win over a mediocre Virginia squad in Charlottesville. It crushed NC State, defended the heck out of Duke, and came back from 17 down at Boston College.
"I think that they've done a great job of focusing on what was going on on the court, what was being said on our bench, figured out some way in their minds to handle all the noise and pretend it was in their favor, some of those kinds of mind games, I guess," Williams said. "I try to get them to understand and feel that we can win regardless of where we play. It is a little extra adrenaline flow when you feel like you've got them right where you want them down the stretch and the crowd starts leaving early, I think it's a big positive."
This year's team has been very focused outside the Smith Center, holding teams to 38.5% shooting and 68.6 points per game compared to 40.9% shooting and 70.5 points per game at home. Of the five teams that Carolina has held to under 40% shooting, three of those have been outside the Smith Center; one was against Michigan State in Detroit (34.8%) and another was a true road game at Nevada (34.9 percent). "We're pretty focused on the road," Danny Green said. "We like going into other people's gym and doing well, keeping the crowd quiet. It's not very often that we're the underdog, but when you go into somebody else's gym, we're the team that's getting rooted against and I think some guys on this team like that. We like to kind of shut the crowd up a little bit."
But Wake Forest showed its toughness - which, let's face it, is what good road teams have in abundance - by ending BYU's 53-game home winning streak, the longest in the nation. The biggest knock on the Deacons was that they hadn't played anyone; clearly, that is no longer valid. They responded to their biggest challenge of the season by toughing out a win over a good team. "They made every play down the stretch. That's got to give you a tremendous amount of confidence," Williams said. "I've had some young teams that have got 1-2 of those big-time road wins that goes down to the wire and it's about the best thing that could possibly happen to a team. So for us to win up there, I think we've got to play great in every aspect of the game."
At The Game
Listening to the Tar Heel Sports Network at the game: The in-stadium frequency at Lawrence Joel is not yet known.
Watching At Home
Turn down the sound: If you're watching at home while listening to the radio or over the computer via Carolina All-Access, there will inevitably be some delay. For the reason - and a possible solution - click here.
A full list of THSN affiliates can be found here.
Fox Sports Net coverage: The game will be available on Fox Sports Net.
Names To Know
Ty Lawson: Everyone felt that Ty Lawson had hit his stride during and after the Notre Dame game when he had a five game stretch averaging 19 points, eight assists to one turnover, and 3.4 steals. He shot 61.7% from the floor and 50% from three-point range in that span, averaging 7.0 free-throw attempts and making six of them (85.7 percent). But in the last five games, that production has slipped; he has averaged 13 points on 50% shooting (38.5% from the three-point line), shooting 70 percent from the foul line and averaging 4.0 attempts per game. He also has 30 assists (6.0 per game) but 12 turnovers to go along with those, 2.4 per game. In the last two games alone, he has 12 assists to seven turnovers (1.7 assist/turnover ratio) after dishing out 86 assists to 17 turnovers in the first 13 games (5.1 ratio).
Despite some recent struggles, he is fifth in the nation in offensive efficiency (according to Ken Pomeroy) with a 136.1 rating, which is basically points per possession. He is 11th in the ACC in scoring with 15.2 points per game and leads the league in three important categories - assists (6.5 per game), steals (2.5 per game) and assist-turnover ratio (4.1). Lawson shot 23.1% from the floor against Boston College, but it was only his second-worst offensive game of the season. A lot of Lawson's shots rolled in and out of the rim against the Eagles (although some were bad shots) but he had quite a bit of trouble driving against the Kentucky big men and big guards, shooting 3-of-15 from the floor (3-of-13 from two-point range). In fact, taking out the Boston College and Kentucky games, he has shot 67.1% from two-point range and 62% overall; with just those two, he shot 21.7% from two-point range and 21.4% overall. Wake Forest has more than enough height and plenty of quickness to trouble him. Lawson is the motor for this Carolina team on both ends and when he struggles, the team tends to struggle.
Danny Green: As usual with Green, he is a bit of a wildcard in this matchup. Last season against a largely-intact Wake team, he had 15 points on 4-of-7 shooting and added nine rebounds. Of course, that was a Wake Forest team without Al-Farouq Aminu, a 6-9 three-man that could provide challenges both on the boards and on both ends of the court for Green. But Green has provided matchup nightmares of his own all season. The senior has been so fantastic statistically that he is 20th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 27th in effective field goal percentage, a formula that adds the extra value three-pointers. Green is also ranked in the top ten in the league in four very different categories - sixth in field-goal percentage (55.1%), tied for fifth in three-pointers made (2.0 per game), fourth in assist/turnover ratio (2.0) and tied for ninth in blocked shots (1.3 per game).
After making 6-of-8 three's against UNC-Asheville, Green was bound to cool off - and he did, hitting 3-of-11 three's in the next three games. He has slowly heated back up again in the last four games, hitting 8-of-17 three's (47.1 percent). Against Boston College, he shot 3-of-10 from the floor (30 percent, his worst percentage of the season), but he did have seven rebounds (his most since the Oregon game), three assists, one steal, a block and no turnovers in just 19 minutes. Carolina could have used his versatility, spark and hustle in its comeback try, but Green was limited quite a bit after mistakenly picking up his fourth foul in the middle of the second half. Carolina will need to keep Green around a lot longer against Wake Forest and Green will need to continue to show his defensive improvement against the talented Aminu and the rest of the quick Deacons.
Tyler Hansbrough: If Tyler Hansbrough qualified for the ACC statistical leaderboard - as he will after Carolina's next game - he would lead the league in scoring and rank sixth in field-goal percentage (55.9%), free-throw percentage (84.6%) and offensive rebounds (2.9 per game). The only statistic that Hansbrough is not putting up "normal" numbers in would be rebounding; he would be only 12th in the league with 7.2 per game. After having his second-worst shooting day of the season against Boston College (40 percent), he rebounded in typical Hansbrough fashion with his best shooting day of the year (76.9 percent) against College of Charleston, notching 24 points on 10-of-13 shooting. Quietly, he has scored 20 or more points for eight straight games, tying his longest streak of his career.
Before last year's game against Wake Forest, Hansbrough had averaged 15.3 points and 6.0 rebounds in three previous games against the Deacons. But in last year's meeting, he had 29 points on 9-of-13 shooting (11-of-14 from the foul line) and added five rebounds and four steals in 37 minutes. Wake Forest did not have as much post depth as it does now and with five major rotation players measuring in at 6-9 or taller, it will not be so simple to foul out the Wake Forest front line this year. Hansbrough also pulled down a season-low three rebounds against Nevada against a tough front line; Wake Forest will be even tougher to rebound against.
Jeff Teague: Sophomore playmaker guard Jeff Teague is the scoring leader in the ACC with 19.6 points per game, and it showed in the last game. Against BYU, Teague was fantastic, notching 30 points on 8-of-12 shooting, 2-of-4 three's and 12-of-14 foul shots. He also added four rebounds, four assists, a steal and just one turnover in a whopping 37 minutes. On the season, he is already shooting 53.6% from the floor (8th in the ACC); in the last two games, he has shot 14-of-25 (56%). He has also shot a team-high 51.5% (17-of-33) from three-point range. Teague is also sixth in the ACC in free-throw shooting at 84.4%, leading the team in attempts (90) and makes (70), averaging a staggering 6.9 attempts per game, nearly a fourth of Wake's total attempts this season. In the last two games alone, he has averaged 10.5 attempts and has gotten to the line at least twice in all but one game, a win over East Carolina. Teague also leads the team in assists with 54 and in steals with 29, ranking fifth and second in the league in both categories, respectively.
With the absence of a completely healthy Ishmael Smith at point guard, Teague has had to take on more of a load at point guard, a place where he is not entirely comfortable. Beginning with the final two games of Wake Forest's Anaheim tournament, Teague had a six-game stretch of 28 assists to 32 turnovers, or 4.7 assists and 5.3 turnovers. In the other seven games, Teague has 13 turnovers (1.9 per game).With Ishmael Smith playing 21.7 minutes per game in the last three games, Teague has had a stretch of ten assists to just three turnovers (3.3 assist/turnover ratio). Before that, he had 44 assists to 42 turnovers in the first 10 games (1.05 ratio). Still, Teague dominated the end of the BYU game and ultimately sealed the win for the Deacons down the stretch by penetrating into the paint seemingly at will, more often than not taking it to the basket and scoring. Averaging 4.9 two-point field goals a game on 9.1 attempts and shooting 54% from that range, he is a dangerous playmaker determined to either get to the hoop or get to the line.
James Johnson: The 6-9 forward Johnson narrowly fell short of winning ACC Rookie of the Year last season and set quite a high bar for his sophomore season. But like the rest of the talented Wake Forest squad, he has lived up to the billing. He is averaging fewer points (13.5 compared to 14.6 last season), but his rebounds are up from 8.1 last year to 8.2 this year (7th in the league) and his field-goal percentage has improved from 48.7% to 51.9% from the floor, ninth in the league. His three-point percentage has also gone up to 34.6% (9-of-26) after making just 28-of-100 (28%) last season. His assists are also up from 1.2 per game to 2.5 and his steals are up from 1.4 per game to 2.0, tied for fourth in the league.
He is second on the team in rebounding but also has some help from his teammates now. He is still fifth in the ACC in defensive rebounds with six per game. The only thing that's down is his free-throw percentage and average attempts; he is attempting 3.5 per game and shooting 62.2% this season after averaging four per game last season and shooting 68.9 percent. In the last two games, Johnson has shot 15-of-25 from the floor (60%) and averaged 17 points. He has also averaged 13.5 rebounds in that span and has back-to-back double-doubles for the first time this season. Against BYU, he has his third 20-point game and the first in the last six, notching 22 points on 9-of-14 shooting and adding a season-high 15 rebounds. He also had two assists, a steal, two blocks and three turnovers in 31 minutes.
Al-Farouq Aminu: Wake Forest's athletic, long 6-9 freshman forward is someone that even Roy Williams said he "wanted very badly", but he chose the Deacons and it's easy to see why he was so highly-touted. He is third on the team in scoring with 13 points per game but is first in rebounding and fifth in the league (8.9 per game), first on the team and eighth in the league in blocks (1.4 per game), and first in field-goal percentage among those who have attempted 50 or more shots (55.4%). He leads the team in double-doubles with five. He also leads the team in both offensive rebounds (2.5 per game) and defensive rebounds (6.4 per game), ranking second in the league in the latter category. Against BYU, he played a season-high 33 minutes and had 14 points on 5-of-8 shooting, seven rebounds and three blocked shots.
Like most freshmen, Aminu at times has struggled with ball security, ranking second on the team in turnovers with 2.8 per game. He has 24 assists to 36 turnovers this season. But unlike most freshmen, he has played very well against the RPI top 100; in those four games for Wake, he has shot 60.6% from the floor and averaging 14 points and 8.8 rebounds. He also shot 75 percent from the foul line and made 1-of-5 three-pointers in those games compared to 62.2% from the line in the other nine games and 1-of-10 from three-point land. In the other nine games, he shot 53.2% from the floor and averaged 12.6 points. He does turn it over less against that competition, averaging 2.2 assists to 2.4 turnovers compared to one assist and 3.5 turnovers in the other four. He is capable of putting the ball on the floor and he will be a very difficult and quick-footed matchup for whichever Tar Heel post man draws the defensive assignment.
Quotables
"I said at halftime that we're going to play straight man-to-man defense and we score the first basket of the second half and guess what Ty Lawson signaled? One of our scrambles. I almost puked on the sideline. And then as soon as he did it he looked over at the bench like, `My gosh, why did I do that?'" -Roy Williams
"I'll admit, I still haven't figured out what that motorcycle has got to do with the whole thing. ... It's noisy. So maybe if that's their purpose, I'm not criticizing their purpose. I don't know that that sucker (the Demon Deacon mascot) could ride that motorcycle any faster than (Jeff) Teague and Tywon (Lawson) can push the ball up and down the floor. I know sure as hell he couldn't stop as fast as they stop." -Roy Williams on the only part of the Lawrence Joel experience that he doesn't quite understand
"You remember what I said in my press conference when I came here? I told you there's one source - it's not those websites, it's not your blankety-blank opinions. There is one f'ing source - that's frickin', don't put anything in there that's not there - and I don't know. ... If I plan on him coming in Cameron Indoor Stadium in a Superman outfit in a parachute, coming down and seeing if they'll open one of the doors and let him run in, I promise you that I'll tell you that." -Roy Williams
Lauren Brownlow is the managing editor of Tar Heel Monthly.
