University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: Tar Heels Must Answer Basic Challenge
October 20, 2010 | Men's Basketball
Oct. 20, 2010
By Adam Lucas
Get rid of all the buzz about the heralded freshman class. Eliminate all the talk about seeking redemption for a disappointing 2010. The ultimate outcome for the 2010-11 Tar Heels will be decided by the most fundamental question in the sport: can they put the basketball through the hoop?
Last year's team had some problems. Most of those could have been camouflaged, however, by a better offense. The gory stats are these, and children may want to look away:
- The Tar Heels scored 74.5 points per game (lowest in the Roy Williams era)
- The Tar Heels shot 44.1% from the field (lowest in the Williams era)
- The Tar Heels shot 32.9% from the three-point line (lowest in the Williams era)
- The Tar Heels shot just 65.3% from the free throw line (lowest in the Williams era and lowest by a UNC team since 1954)
- The Tar Heels broke 100 points just once after doing it an average of 6.5 times per season in the previous six years of the Williams era.
It would be nice to play better defense or have better chemistry. But since we know Williams is unlikely to suddenly install the Princeton offense, the Tar Heels simply won't make the dramatic improvement many expect without more effective scoring.
"Coaches love to talk about diving on the floor and drawing charges," Williams said. "But that thing that hangs from the ceiling or is attached to the wall is called a scoreboard. And (last year) we couldn't score."
The numbers get a little more dicey when you consider that the returning players from last year's team actually shot a lower field goal percentage (43.1) and three-point percentage (29.4) than the overall figures from last year. That leads to a logical question: are the low percentages because the Tar Heels were taking bad shots? Or are the shooting numbers poor because they were missing good shots?
There are two solutions to the offensive problems.
Better shots
The tempo ratings from last year, which are a more accurate way to measure a team's pace, suggest Carolina wasn't getting up and down the floor as quickly in 2010. Last year's adjusted tempo rating (possessions divided by minutes, adjusted for schedule) was 27th in the country. That's easily the lowest mark in the Williams era. The only season that came close was the 2006 squad, a much better defensive team than last year that still ranked 22nd overall in tempo.
The equation for Williams-coached teams is usually simple: a faster tempo leads to easier shots and more points.
"We've got unbelievable speed," Leslie McDonald said. "Kendall (Marshall) and Reggie (Bullock) and those guys can really run. We've worked harder on our conditioning this summer, and we're going to run the court much better this year."
When the game slowed to a halfcourt pace last year, Carolina was often unable to convert with the shot clock ticking below ten. There didn't seem to be an obvious go-to shot or go-to player until Larry Drew II began consistently penetrating in the NIT.
Harrison Barnes is a scorer, not a shooter. He's capable of creating his own shot. But to truly improve, the returning Tar Heels know it will require more than just one individual beating his man off the dribble.
"We weren't getting good shots last year," Henson said. "We needed to work on setting screens for each other and playing together. We'll do that this year."
Although the freshman class is reputed to be stocked with scorers, there will likely be some adjustment to college-level--and especially ACC-level--defense. Scoring 30 in high school meant shooting until they got hot, or perhaps breaking down a defender whose next league might be the local YMCA. That won't be the case in college.
"The biggest adjustment for the freshmen will be the quickness and speed of the people guarding them," Zeller said. "They're going to have to work harder to set their man up and get the shot they want. But at the same time, they're great players. They'll be able to do it. The three weeks of practice before the first game will help them adjust to what real college defense is."
Better shooters
Williams slipped an almost-unnoticed comment into last week's media day. "Before we lost Will, I thought we could be as good a three-point shooting team as our '09 team," the head coach said.
That's a significant statement, because the 2009 team was one of the best perimeter shooting teams in Tar Heel history. That season's 38.7% accuracy mark from beyond the stripe is second-best in the past 14 seasons, bested only by the 2005 national champions. Danny Green, Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson were all reliable perimeter shooters, with Graves and Bobby Frasor providing firepower off the bench.
The 2011 team has no proven players in the category of that quintet, which must mean the head coach is very confident in the abilities of his freshmen.
"We'll be able to score a lot better this year," Williams said. "Every coach loves big guys, but you've got to have guards who have been through some of the wars and you feel comfortable with them...With Reggie and Harrison, we have two guys who really do shoot the ball very well. Leslie will shoot the ball better. Larry will shoot the ball better."
Free throw shooting remains a concern. At 72.2%, Tyler Zeller has the highest free throw percentage among Carolina's returning players. No one else hit better than It's pretty simple: John Henson simply must improve his 43.8 percentage from last season. With a thin frontcourt, Williams won't be able to stash Henson on the bench in the closing minutes of late games. That means he'll be tested from the charity stripe in some important situations. "I think it's more a mental thing than a physical thing," the sophomore said. "I've been working on my mental approach."
It's one thing to stand in an empty gym and shoot free throws or three-pointers. Williams thinks he's assembled a team more capable of performing those somewhat mechanical skills.
But it's quite another to do it in the face of a screaming ACC crowd. And in the end, that's the variable that is likely to determine the extent of this year's Carolina resurgence.
Adam Lucas is the publisher of Tar Heel Monthly. He is also the author or co-author of six books on Carolina basketball, including the official chronicle of the first 100 years of Tar Heel hoops, A Century of Excellence, which is available now. Get real-time UNC sports updates from the THM staff on Twitter.
