University of North Carolina Athletics
Mississippi State Game Guide
March 19, 2010 | Men's Basketball
March 19, 2010
By Lauren Brownlow
The Basics
North Carolina (17-16) will travel to Starkville, Mississippi for the first time ever to face Mississippi State (24-11) in the second round of the NIT. The Bulldogs are the No. 1 seed while North Carolina is the No. 4 seed. The winner will play the winner of a game between NC State (six-seed) and UAB (two-seed). Carolina is 10-4 in the NIT and is coming off of an 80-72 win in Carmichael Arena over William and Mary in the first round on Tuesday. Mississippi State also won its opener on Tuesday against Jackson State, 81-67. This will be Carolina's first-ever game in the state of Mississippi and just the second meeting between the two schools since 1929 (82 years). Carolina leads the all-time series, 4-0.
Game Time: No. 4 seed North Carolina at No. 1 seed Mississippi State, 12:00 PM (11 a.m. Central Time)
Last Time: Carolina beat Mississippi State 84-80 on December 18, 1964 in Blacksburg, Virginia.
Radio Coverage: Tar Heel Sports Network coverage will begin at 11:00 AM.
Storylines
Getting - and making - good shots: This matchup Carolina will have against a team that is very hard to score on inside will be a world different from the way Carolina could out-athlete William and Mary down low. The good news is that Carolina has played six of the top 13 teams in block percentage in the nation already. The bad news is that Mississippi State is No. 1 by a hair over Kentucky, blocking 18.1% of opponents' shots. And Carolina has a 2-6 record in those games, including three losses to Georgia Tech. In the two wins against the prolific shot-blocking teams, Marshall and Rutgers blocked 12 shots but Carolina shot 46.9%, including 56% from three and nearly 46% from two. Carolina also averaged 32 free-throw attempts in those games. But in the six losses, Carolina averaged 21.5 attempts and shot just 36.9%, including 28.7% from three and 40% from two. Not all of the best shot-blocking teams are dominant in two-point defense, but Mississippi State is No. 7 in that category. Carolina has already played four of the top ten (three of which are in the ACC) and is 0-6, including three games against Georgia Tech. Carolina actually hit 15-of-33 threes against the No. 1 two-point defense team, Florida State, but in those six games, it hit just 39.5% of its two-point tries. In the other 27 games, despite struggling to shoot in many games this year, Carolina still hit 52.1% of its two-pointers. What's especially impressive about Mississippi State is how infrequently they foul and how infrequently their opponents see the foul line. In 24 wins, the Bulldogs' opponents have averaged just 11.8 attempts compared to 23.6 attempts in their 11 losses. In fact, just 12% of points by opponents come from the foul line in wins compared to 22% in losses. Nearly a third of opponents' points have had to come from beyond the arc in Mississippi State wins compared to a fourth in losses. But the Bulldogs are averaging 5.6 blocks and 19 fouls in 11 losses compared to 8.5 blocks and 11.9 fouls in 24 wins, meaning Carolina will have to pick up fouls and be aggressive down low, no matter how many shots get blocked early.
Watching At Home
Turn down the sound: If you're watching at home while listening to the radio or over the computer via Carolina All-Access, there will inevitably be some delay. For the reason - and a possible solution - click here.
A full list of THSN affiliates can be found here.
ESPN coverage: The game will be available on ESPN. Dari Nowkhah and LaPhonoso Ellis will have the call.
Names To Know
Tyler Zeller: As most have seen Tyler Zeller around in some capacity for two years now, it's difficult to comprehend just how much basketball he still has left to learn. Since he got here, Carolina has played 71 games. Zeller has played in 38 of them, 15 last year and 23 this year. Of those 38, just 18 have been while healthy and the other 20 have been trying to come back from an injury in some capacity. One might argue that, particularly with limited minutes in his return each year, he has never really gotten into a rhythm and whenever he did - this year - he got hurt yet again. In his first four games back from this injury, Zeller had shot just 37% and averaged seven points in 16.8 minutes, committing 2.3 fouls per game and often having to miss time due to that foul trouble. As he got back into shape, in the last four games he has averaged 12.7 points and shot 64% in 21.3 minutes. His conditioning improvement is also reflected in his second-half numbers; he went from shooting 3-of-9 from the floor in the second half of his first four games back to 8-of-14 in the last three, scoring 18 points in 29 second-half minutes. He had eight points in the second half against William and Mary, including two very important steals late in the game. He will have a tough time against a tough Mississippi State post defense, but if he can have the kind of impact he has had lately even against good frontcourts, Carolina will have a chance.
The starting backcourt: This group is a unit because Carolina needs output from it, no matter which ones of them are hot and which ones are cold. Marcus Ginyard has come into his own lately but Larry Drew II and Will Graves have both struggled, particularly with shooting. For example, in the most recent loss to Georgia Tech, the three contributed 15 points but it was just on 5-of-29 shooting; the rest of ten team shot 15-of-40, which is not much better. At Duke, the three had nine points combined on 2-of-12 shooting. Then in the loss to Georgia Tech in Atlanta, they had 13 points on 4-of-19 shooting and added six assists to eight turnovers. Carolina has lost five of its last eight games. In those losses, the Carolina starting backcourt have averaged just 18.6 points between them on 28.45 shooting (21.6% from three) with 41 assists to 27 turnovers. But in the three wins, that unit contributed 30.3 points, dishing out 36 assists to 16 turnovers, and shooting 40% from three. Carolina doesn't need any particular member, or all of them, to average a lot of points. But what it does need from them is more consistent play and at least one of them to have a good night shooting the ball. To make 21.6% of your threes in Carolina's last five losses is not good enough.
Jarvis Varnado: The senior forward might be one of the best players most of America has not heard nearly enough about. He has set the NCAA career blocked shots record; last year, he had more blocked shots by himself than 309 of the 330 Division I teams. He has had a triple-double twice, including once this season against Georgia (17 points, 12 rebounds, ten blocks) in a win. He is shooting a ridiculous 58.3%; it's not like he shoots sparingly - he has attempted 307 shots and made 179 to lead his team in scoring with 13.8 points per game. His free-throw percentage is not great (60.5%) but he has attempted a team-high 205 and made a team-high 124. He is averaging a double-double this year with 10.3 rebounds, including three offensive boards per game. He has failed to hit double digits in scoring five times and Mississippi State is 2-3 in those games. And it's not like he faced off against no competition; against Kentucky, none of the best shot-blocking teams, he shot 12-of-21 in two games and averaged 14 points, seven rebounds and 3.5 blocks. The only major difference for Varnado in wins and losses is blocks (3.7 in losses, 5.2 in wins) and fouls (3.3 in losses, two in wins). Carolina has to get the shot-blocker in early foul trouble in order to make things easier down low.
Dee Bost: The 6-2 sophomore guard, a Concord native, is leading the Bulldogs in minutes per game, assists and steals and is third in points (13.0 per game). He is first in field goals attempted and second in both free throws attempted and made (101-140, 72.1 percent). He has also made 67-of-190 threes (35.3 percent) and adds 4.4 rebounds per game. Averaging 5.3 assists, he by far leads the team but has also averaged 3.3 turnovers. As is the case with most guards, his play has been crucial in wins and losses; he shoots over ten percentage points better in wins (43.7) than losses (33.6) and averages nearly the same number of points (12.8 in losses, 13.1 in wins) but shoots 39.7% from three in wins and 27.5% in losses. He also averages 3.5 fouls in losses compared to 1.2 in wins. Carolina will need to try to get him in foul trouble and force him into turnovers in order to disrupt him. He has shot 10-of-23 from the floor in the last two games (a near-upset of Kentucky and a win over Jackson State), averaging 17 points and making 4-of-12 threes. He has also averaged 5.0 rebounds, 2.0 steals and has 11 assists to just five turnovers in that span. Against Jackson State, he had 18 points on 4-of-8 shooting and it was his most points since scoring 25 in a loss at Auburn.
Lauren Brownlow is the executive editor of Tar Heel Monthly.
