University of North Carolina Athletics
Virginia Game Guide
January 7, 2011 | Men's Basketball
Jan. 7, 2011
By Lauren Brownlow
The Basics
Carolina (10-4) will open ACC play at Virginia (10-5, 1-0) on Saturday. Carolina is coming off of a 103-54 win over St. Francis on Sunday. The Cavaliers are coming off of an 84-63 home win over Howard on Tuesday. The Cavaliers had a five-game winning streak snapped by dropping two straight to Seattle and Iowa State at home to close out December; they have won two straight in 2011 so far. Carolina leads the all-time series between the longtime rivals, 124-49. The Tar Heels have won six of the last seven but have always had a hard time in Charlottesville, posting a 42-31 record there. Carolina has won two straight in Charlottesville but has not won three in a row since the 1983-85 teams did it. No one on the current roster was born. Three of the five games played at Virginia in the Roy Williams era have been decided by four points or less; in contrast, all six of the meetings in Chapel Hill have been decided by double digits. Carolina is 48-9 in ACC openers and has won nine of the last 11.
Game Time: North Carolina at Virginia, 12:00 PM, Raycom
Last Time: Carolina lost 75-60 at home to Virginia on January 31, 2010. The game was close in the first half but Virginia opened the second half on an 18-0 run after Carolina scored the first basket to take a 21-point lead with 14:20 to go. Carolina would get no closer than 14 points down the rest of the way. Carolina made just 11-of-34 two-pointers (32.4%) but 9-of-22 three's (40.9 percent) and turned it over 17 times to just 11 assists. Virginia shot 51.9% for the game and 7-of-17 from beyond the arc. Will Graves had 15 points on 5-of-15 shooting and Larry Drew II also had 15 points on 5-of-13 shooting. Sylven Landesberg led Virginia with 29 points on 11-of-18 shooting and Sammy Zeglinski added 19 on 5-of-8 from three.
Radio Coverage: Tar Heel Sports Network coverage will begin at 11:00 AM.
Watching At Home
Turn down the sound: If you're watching the game at home while listening to the radio or over the computer via Carolina All-Access, there will inevitably be some delay. For the reason - and a possible solution - click here.
A full list of THSN affiliates can be found here.
Raycom coverage: The game will be available on Raycom. Tim Brant and Dan Bonner will have the call. For a coverage map, click here.
Storylines
Setting the pace: Carolina is 9th in tempo according to kenpom.com. Virginia is 339th. Only six schools average fewer possessions than the Cavaliers, and one of them is Wisconsin. Virginia has faced just four other teams inside the top 50 in that category this season and is 1-3 in those games; the one win was by one point over Norfolk State (48th in tempo). The Cavaliers lost to Iowa State (46th), Washington (11th) and Seattle (3rd), two recently, already this year. Wichita State is 208th and Stanford is 274th, but the Cavaliers didn't shoot well in either game. But what Virginia seeks to do defensively is not allow any easy baskets; the Cavaliers are perfectly content to defend for all 35 seconds of the shot clock or let teams take a three-pointer before allowing teams to get into the paint. Carolina showed that last year by making 9-of-22 three's against Virginia (40.9%) but just 11-of-34 two's (32.4%). In losses this year, Carolina has not shot well from two-point range, making just 46% (compared to 52.7% in wins) but the lowest percentage the Tar Heels have shot has been 43.2% against Vanderbilt. Teams that beat Virginia also move the ball well; in five losses, their opponents have 13.8 assists on 28.0 field goals (49.3% assisted field goals) compared to 8.9 assists on 20.3 field goals (43.8%) in 10 wins. The Tar Heels have assists on 54.8% of their field goals and in the last three games they have 58 assists on 100 field goals. In four losses, Carolina assists on 48% of its field goals but in wins, 57.1% of field goals are assisted. When Carolina shares the ball and is patient, it looks and plays like a better team on offense, but Virginia is not a team that likes to allow that to happen. Carolina will have to balance pushing the tempo with being patient enough in the half court to get a good shot.
Carolina had fewer possessions on offense than it did against Virginia last year (84) in eight other games in 2010 and went 5-3 (2-2 in the regular season). Possessions decreased for Carolina in ACC play; it averaged 93.8 in the first 15 games, scoring 85.3 points (0.91 per possession). Carolina averaged 85.8 possessions in the final 22 games and went 9-13, scoring 67.2 points (0.78). Carolina has averaged 89.1 possessions this season (0.84 points per possession) and has played just one game with fewer than 84 possessions, a loss at Illinois (83). The Tar Heels have had just one 90-possession game in its last nine games and still managed to go 7-2; Carolina started 3-2 with four 90-possession games in the first five. In the last six, Carolina has averaged fewer possessions (88 compared to 90 in the first eight) and has averaged 85.7 points (0.97 per possession) compared to 76.9 points (0.85 per possession) in the first eight. The Cavaliers don't force turnovers as much as they capitalize on your mistakes. Carolina gave away far too many of those early this year, averaging 16.4 turnovers in their first seven games, but has improved to 12.1 in the last seven; opponents points off turnovers have dropped from 18.7 to 10.9. Since allowing 17 to Kentucky, Carolina has allowed just 9.8 in its last six games. And Virginia doesn't give you easy ones. Ever since turning it over 35 times in back-to-back losses to Stanford and Washington, the Cavaliers have not had more than 13 turnovers in a game since and have had 11 or fewer in 10 of the next 11 games. In Carolina's last three games, it has scored 73 points off of 53 turnovers forced (24.3 points off of 17.7 turnovers). In the first 11, it forced just 15.3 turnovers and scored 17.0 per game off of them. It's no coincidence that the Tar Heels are averaging 13.7 fast break points in that three-game stretch compared to 6.7 in the first 11. Carolina has been imposing its will much more frequently and will have a hard time doing that on Saturday, but most set the pace and tempo of the game rather than vice versa.
Names To Know
Dexter Strickland: There have been some games in which Strickland's aggression has been vital to the Tar Heels' success, like against Long Beach State, Texas and William and Mary. But against St. Francis - though it worked out for him - he was at times making the wrong decision in transition, determined to get to the basket and get fouled or make the basket. It worked to the tune of 13 points on 4-of-6 shooting (and he got eight free-throw attempts), but those kinds of decisions against a disciplined defensive team in Virginia could cost him. Still, the way he's been able to force the action and make the games faster for Carolina - all while under control, mostly - has been important, and Carolina really could use that kind of tempo-pushing play on Saturday. Strickland has averaged 14.4 points in the last five games, more than doubling his 7.0 point average through the first nine. He has shot 61% from the floor and 3-of-4 from three in that span, adding 19-of-25 (76%) from the foul line. The formerly turnover-prone guard has seven assists to four turnovers in the last five games and has picked up just five fouls despite playing good, aggressive defense. Virginia has plenty of shooters, so Carolina will need him plenty on that end as well. He hasn't won a Defensive Player of the Game Award in the last five games, and Carolina could use one from him now.
Tyler Zeller: It's not quite true to say that Zeller has been struggling, per se. But in the last five games, he has averaged 11.4 points on 43.5% shooting, 7.8 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks in 24.4 minutes. Very solid numbers, but compared to his 16.4 points on 53.1% shooting in the first nine games (his rebound and block numbers are nearly identical, and he has improved on steals), it seems like he's slipping a bit. But Carolina also hasn't needed him as much the last few games as it did early on, particularly with the guards picking up the scoring load. His 20 minutes against St. Francis tied a season-low (he had 20 against Illinois due to foul trouble). But in the games where Zeller has picked up four fouls (he has yet to foul out), Carolina is 2-3; he never picked up a fourth at Illinois. While the backcourt is playing well this year, Carolina still needs Zeller to become that consistent dominant post presence he was earlier in the year in ACC play so that Carolina can get back to being an inside-out team all the time. Virginia is not always an easy team to score on inside, though, and will likely bring double teams on Zeller down low whenever he touches it. He didn't play against Virginia last year, but Carolina's starting forwards combined for 11 points on 50 minutes on 3-of-10 shooting (5-of-12 from the foul line), adding 11 rebounds, one assist, four fouls and seven turnovers. Ed Davis took just three shots and made one. It will be interesting to see what Zeller, who has been perhaps Carolina's most important player so far, is able to do in what could be a frustrating game.
Mustapha Farrakhan: Good news, Carolina fans - good shooters do have ridiculous shooting nights against other teams. But even the Tar Heels have not often, if ever, seen someone do what the 6-4 senior guard did to Howard on Tuesday night. Farrakhan dropped a career-high 31 points on 11-of-12 shooting and made eight of nine three's. He made his first 11 shots and all eight three's consecutively, tying a school record, and it was the first time a Virginia player made that many three's since Curtis Staples in 1998. Without Mike Scott, Farrakhan is the next-best scorer left (12.3 per game) and as he goes, so goes Virginia. In ten wins, he has shot 55% from the floor and 52% from three, averaging 15.4 points and adding 21 assists to 14 turnovers in 30.7 minutes. In five losses, he has shot 19.5% from the floor and 9.1% from three, averaging 6.0 points and adding five assists to 11 turnovers in 24.0 minutes. Farrakhan has always been a bit streaky, but he started off this season struggling from three (10-of-28) in his first eight games. In the next three, he shot 6-of-13. Then he made 1-of-16 in the next three - Seattle, Iowa State and LSU - and followed that up with the 8-of-9 performance. But he is shooting with confidence now, a dangerous prospect for Carolina. The Tar Heels will need to do what they can to make his shots difficult.
Joe Harris: Though the 6-6 freshman swing man is behind fellow freshman KT Harrell in scoring (he has averaged 9.9 points compared to 10.3 for Harrell), Harris plays a position that has hurt Carolina recently. He is the third-leading rebounder on the team (without Scott), 3.3 per game, and he has shot 45.3% from the floor and 42.2% from three (27-of-64). He also has 11 steals and six blocks. But he does rank second on the team in fouls (32) and turnovers (26) on a squad that does not like to do either. Between the Stanford loss and Radford win, a seven-game stretch, he averaged 13.7 points on 52.2% shooting (51.4% from three) in 30 minutes a game. But in the next four games - two losses and a narrow win over Norfolk State - he shot just 28% (1-of-12 from three) and averaged 4.5 points in 26.0 minutes. The last two games he has played less - 21.0 minutes - but shot 46.7% from the field and 63% from three, averaging 12.5 points, 1.5 steals and a block. In the last six games, he has cut his turnovers down from 2.0 per game to just 1.3 and he has averaged just 1.3 fouls in the last three games after averaging 2.3 in the first 12. Against Howard, he made 5-of-6 shots (all three's) and had 16 points, his first double-digit game since the beginning of December.
Lauren Brownlow is the executive editor of Tar Heel Monthly.
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