University of North Carolina Athletics
Lucas: Doubting The Double Bye
March 12, 2014 | Men's Basketball, Featured Writers, Adam Lucas
Much of the drama of the second half of the ACC season surrounded the chase for the four "double byes" in the ACC Tournament. With 15 teams in the league this year, the event stretches to five days for the first time ever. The first four seeds--Virginia, Syracuse, Duke and Carolina--received double byes, meaning that although competition begins at 1 p.m. today, those four teams won't take the floor until Friday.
No one really stopped to ask one question about the double byes: are they really that desirable? The ACC has never had this format before, so very few coaches in the league have any experience. One who does is Jim Boeheim, who is not so sure it's a positive that his team will sit until Friday.
"It's always difficult to wait for that double bye," the Syracuse coach said on the ACC teleconference this week. "We found in the Big East that those teams didn't win at a high percentage even when they're the heavy favorites to win. I think there's an advantage to playing a game or two in a tournament and get yourself ready to play.
"It's proven in the Big East that statistics are overwhelmingly in favor of the teams that are playing one or two games to have a great chance to win it. The percentages should be the other way because you're playing one of the top seeds."
Now, Boeheim is not exactly known for his sunny disposition. But he's correct that after three of the top four seeds lost in the 2010 quarterfinals, the Big East coaches did make a major push to get rid of the double bye, voting unanimously during the offseason to get rid of the format. The league responded, essentially, by yawning.
In all, the Big East held five conference tournaments--from 2009 through 2013--that included four teams receiving the double bye. In those seasons, the top 4 seeds had a combined record of 11-9 in the quarterfinals, and a top-4 seed won the event in three of the five seasons. That's not exactly the "overwhelming" statistical advantage for the lower seeds Boeheim recalled, but it's not chalk in every round, either.
The cumulative mark over .500 somewhat obscures what a battle the top-4 seeds had in the quarters. In 2012, for example, 3 seed Notre Dame needed overtime to beat South Florida, as did 4 seed Cincinnati to beat Georgetown. One of the most famous Big East Tournament games of all time also happened in the quarterfinals, as 6 seed Syracuse upended 3 seed Connecticut in six overtimes in 2009.
So at first glance, it sounds like Boeheim might be right, and the double bye might not be much of an advantage. Here's the problem, though: conference tournaments usually feature a helping of unexpectedly close games. During the same five-year period, the top four seeds in the ACC Tournament--with only a single bye--have gone a combined 12-8 in the quarterfinals, just one game better than their Big East counterparts.
It's not the double byes that are to blame for the upsets and close games in the Big East. It's March in general. Teams are facing opponents for the second and sometimes third times. There are no secrets anymore. Scouting reports are elaborate. And some teams are playing to prolong their seasons, just as some of Wednesday and Thursday's survivors will be in Greensboro.
Essentially, it comes down to this: coaches and players like playing. They don't like sitting. They'll tell you that teams that play earlier in the event have an advantage because they get into a rhythm. But you know who doesn't get into a rhythm? The teams that play early, lose, and pack up and go home before the top four seeds ever arrive at the tournament. Carolina won't get to Greensboro until late Thursday afternoon, when five teams have already been eliminated from contention.
"Coach Smith used to always hate having a bye because he felt the other team got their sea legs the very first day and you don't," Roy Williams said earlier this week. "But you like being one of those top four teams. You like being successful in the regular season...You'd like to be one of those teams that had a great year and then I'd like to play the first day. But I'd rather not give up those wins."
Adam Lucas is the editor of CAROLINA.
