University of North Carolina Athletics
Know Your Opponent: Duke
February 17, 2015 | Men's Basketball
Duke (GoDuke.com)
Rankings: No. 8 KenPom, No. 4 AP
Location: Durham, N.C.
2014-15 Record: 22-3, 9-3 ACC
Carolina Series History (Last Meeting): Carolina leads 133-105 (Duke 93, UNC 81, March 8, 2014, Cameron Indoor Stadium)
With round one of the best rivalry in college basketball set for Wednesday night in Durham, Duke finds itself in sight of one of its annual goals - a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Blue Devils have been no worse than a No. 3 seed every March since 2007, and with an RPI of 5 and a SOS of 8, they can expect to continue that streak.
Since losing back-to-back games to NC State and Miami in early January, Duke is 8-1 with three of the best performances in the ACC this year. The Blue Devils won by 11 at Louisville on Jan. 17, scored 35 points in the final 10 minutes in Charlottesville to hand Virginia its only loss of the year on Jan. 31 and dismantled Notre Dame by 30 in Durham on Feb. 7. There were some uneven outings in that stretch as well, however, including a 6-point home win over Georgia Tech and a 3-point win at Florida State.
As usual, Duke is an offensive powerhouse. The Blue Devils are scoring a league-best 1.15 points per possession against ACC competition and rank second nationally in KenPom.com's offensive efficiency rating. In conference games, they rank second in 3-point shooting (38.1%) and third in 2-point shooting (50.9%).
Defensively, Duke allows 1.05 PPP in conference games to rank squarely in the middle of the pack. For the season, the Blue Devils are 57th nationally in KenPom's defensive efficiency and fall outside the top 100 in effective field goal percentage defense, turnover percentage, block percentage and 2-point defense. What they do best is defend without fouling, as their opponent free throw rate is fifth-best in the country.
Freshman center Jahlil Okafor makes 66.5 percent of his field goals (all 2s) and is one of the nation's top offensive rebounders. He is a virtual lock for first-team All-ACC honors and will be in the mix for a number of major national awards. Okafor can be somewhat turnover prone (he ranks 61st in the ACC in turnover rate), but his primary weakness comes at the foul line, where he shoots just 57.1 percent.
Junior Amile Jefferson gives Duke a second elite offensive rebounder as well as another post player making more than 62 percent of his 2s, while freshman Justise Winslow is third on the team in both scoring and rebounding. In the backcourt, freshman Tyus Jones is a 40 percent shooter from 3 and extremely adept at getting to the foul line, where he makes more than 87 percent of his attempts. Senior Quinn Cook has attempted a whopping 166 3s so far this year and with good reason - he is making almost 40 percent of his outside shots.
With the dismissal of Rasheed Sulaimon, DU is down to just three scholarship reserves, with sophomore Matt Jones the primary recipient of the bench minutes. Duke's ability to stay out of foul trouble has prevented the lack of depth from becoming a big problem - of the current starting five, only Winslow has fouled out of a game this season.
Duke will be a heavy favorite in all of its remaining non-Carolina games, making an ACC Tournament double-bye likely. With Virginia two games clear of the pack in the loss column, the Cavs are in good shape to defend their regular season title. But with the only head-to-head meeting already going in favor of the Blue Devils, a stumble by UVa could open the door for Duke to steal the top seed in Greensboro.
