University of North Carolina Athletics
Know Your Opponent: Duke
March 6, 2015 | Men's Basketball
Duke (GoDuke.com)
Rankings: No. 8 KenPom, No. 3 AP
Location: Durham, N.C.
2014-15 Record: 27-3, 14-3 ACC
Carolina Series History (Last Meeting): Carolina leads 133-106 (Duke 92, UNC 90 (OT), Feb. 18, 2015, Cameron Indoor Stadium)
Just as it did in the lead up to the first meeting with Carolina, Duke has run the gamut of performances from the head-scratching to the sublime in the four games prior to Saturday's regular season finale. Representing the former is a 91-86 overtime win at Virginia Tech in which the Devils allowed 1.30 points per possession and trailed by eight in the second half before the Hokies ran out of gas. For the latter, a trio of impressive home wins, punctuated by a 94-51 massacre against Wake Forest on Wednesday.
Duke took what felt like Carolina's best shot in Cameron on Feb. 18, the second-best performance by a visitor against the Blue Devils all season behind Miami's 90-74 win on Jan. 13. Certainly Duke at home is one of the nation's best teams. That's not to say the Devils aren't plenty formidable on the road, however, as wins at Wisconsin, Louisville and Virginia would attest. In fact, Duke's case for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament should probably start with the fact that it won on the home court of the regular season champions in both the Big Ten and the ACC.
Offense is still the name of the game, as only the aforementioned Badgers out-rank DU in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency. In conference games, Duke leads the league in offensive efficiency, 3-point percentage and effective FG percentage, while ranking second in 2-point percentage.
Jahlil Okafor is still among the nation's best players, but let's take a moment to fully appreciate the season of senior guard Quinn Cook. Cook is the player that takes Duke from national power to potential NCAA title co-favorite with Kentucky. He ranks 18th in the country in KenPom's individual Offensive Rating, tops among ACC players. He is, of course, an outstanding 3-point shooter, having made 84 of 208 3s (40.4%) this year. But combine that with the ability to shoot 88 percent from the line and 54 percent on 2s while almost never coming out of the game, and you've got a true difference maker.
If you're looking for flaws in Duke, good luck. Depth will continue to be a concern, especially in the compacted schedule of the postseason. And the Devils aren't particularly adept at forcing turnovers (tell that to poor Wake) or blocking shots, though they cover that up nicely by rarely fouling and preventing opponents from even attempting 3s (DU opponents are 319th in percentage of points from 3s).
In a weird quirk of the ACC schedule and tiebreaking procedures, Saturday's game has no bearing on the seeding of either Duke or Carolina. The Blue Devils are locked into the No. 2 seed in Greensboro, while the Tar Heels will either be the No. 4 with a Louisville loss to Virginia or the No. 5 with a Cards win.
But Saturday is, as always, bigger than seeding. It's the rematch of the sport's best rivalry and, for college basketball fans around the state and across the country, the unofficial start to March Madness.
